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Zeihan: China and Huawei
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Zeihan: China and Huawei
If they're able to. I doubt if China has staying power. There's a lot of articles out there discussing how China is getting old before it gets rich.

China started encouraging 1 child per family in 1978, and made it progressively more difficult throughout the 80s for most people to have multiple kids.

This had great benefits at first. The need for school funding plummeted. The number of women in the workforce skyrocketed. But the working age population peaked in 2011 and has declined 2.8% since from 2011-2018. Unlike Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and before them, China has not gotten rich enough to be able to take care of its old people as the worker-to-retiree ratio drops.

[Image: 4201_VoA3_Fig1-1.png]

Japan's working age population as a % of total population peaked at 69% in the mid-1990s. Their economy has stunk since then.

China is even worse shape than Japan for two reasons. First, China has argued for years that their entire fascist political system is justified by the economic growth it has brought.

Second, China's drop is coming faster and harder than Japan's. China's peak came in 2015 at 73%, much higher than Japan. But it was instituted by law, so it was a sharp break. And they didn't ease the restrictions until 2013, so 2 full generations have grown up without siblings. It's now ingrained in the culture - US helicopter parents got nothing on the time being put into each child by an average Chinese mom.
07-22-2019 08:59 AM
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Zeihan: China and Huawei - wild bill - 07-08-2019, 06:30 PM
RE: Zeihan: China and Huawei - JRsec - 07-11-2019, 04:00 PM
RE: Zeihan: China and Huawei - JRsec - 07-17-2019, 01:26 PM
RE: Zeihan: China and Huawei - Captain Bearcat - 07-22-2019 08:59 AM
RE: Zeihan: China and Huawei - Pony94 - 09-01-2020, 09:16 AM
RE: Zeihan: China and Huawei - Kaplony - 09-02-2020, 10:29 PM
RE: Zeihan: China and Huawei - bullet - 09-03-2020, 11:07 AM



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