(01-06-2019 12:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  If the FCS is any guide, the answer is a clear "no".

Since the FCS playoffs expanded to 8 teams in the early 1980s, dynasties have been the rule not the exception. Furthermore, as the playoffs have expanded more, this fact has, if anything, been more pronounced.

E.g., since the FCS playoffs expanded to 20 teams in 2010 and then 24 teams in 2013, we've seen North Dakota State win a whopping 7 of the 9 years. Even Alabama can't match that.

And really, we've seen this throughout the history of the FCS playoffs. In the 1980s, Georgia Southern won 4 titles in 6 years, in the 1990s Youngstown State won 4 titles in 7 years (with Marshall winning 2 in that time frame, and playing in the title game 3 other times), and in the 2000s, before the NDST dynasty, App State won 3 titles in a row.

So ....

Right. If they are truly the best teams--then no. Those same teams would still continue to win. However, I do think that opening it up to more teams would tend to spread the talent around more as recruits realize you can get to the playoff from destinations other than Alabama. I also think we will find that the those other 4 teams offer more of a challenge than many think. We have already seen the #4 seed win 50% of the time in the CFP. So already, we have multiple champions that would not have even been in the playoff during the BCS era. Once it expands to 8 team, I suspect it wont take long at all before a team from seeds #4-8 wins it.