Big 12-When they lose their 2 top teams, they will grab the best 6 schools from BYU, AAC and MWC to go to 14. 8 if they go to 16.
Big 10 have eyes on ACC, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. They gave up on anderbilt and Missouri. Big 12 could lose 2 to 3 schools to either Big 10, SEC or ACC. I do not see West Virginia going anywhere in the near future. PAC 12 will lose out on the bidding war again. The Big 12 as a compromise with the big 3 schools leaving could still be a P5 to avoid the little brother syndrome.
AAC could actually lose between 4 to 6 schools. They already have eyes on UMass., Southern Miss. and ODU and non-football schools of VCU and Dayton. UTSA, Rice, UAB, FIU, Georgia State, Charlotte, Toledo, Northern Illinois and Ohio U. all could be targets along with Buffalo. Houston, Memphis, UCF, USF, Tulane, Cincinnati and Temple all could be the lucky ones in upgrading.
C-USA could actually need to replenish since they could also lose UTEP to the MWC. They could lose 6 schools. Arkansas State, Georgia State, Texas State, South Alabama and La.-Lafayette from the SBC, New Mexico State, and Missouri State and James Madison from FCS could be the lucky ones.
MAC could lose 3 schools. They could add Youngstown State, Illinois State, Indiana State, James Madison, Stony Brook and Delaware are targets.
MWC could lose Boise State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Air Force, Fresno State and Colorado State. If they have to expand? They could be in danger of sponsoring football. Likely targets? UTEP, Sacramento State, UC-Davis, Cal.-Poly, Eastern Washington, Idaho, Montana, Montana State, NDSU and SDSU could be options. I left Portland State out, because they may drop football in the future. The pro-soccer team owner is putting in a new turf and could say that he does not want football players tearing up the turf. Portland State right now are looking for a new home for their team. Possibly playing at a high school stadium.
PAC 12 losing out to get the best teams, they are not interested in the rest of the Big 12. They would look at the MWC schools. They already said they are impressed by the growth of Boise State and San Diego State. Adding those 2 crown jewels from the MWC could help boast their football and basketball. Hawaii, UNR, New Mexico and Colorado State have the academics for PAC 12 in the future.
SBC could lose Georgia State, South Alabama, La.-Lafayette, Arkansas State and Texas State. The schools that would be left for them to get back to FBS football conference need to add warm bodies. Jacksonville State, Kennessaw State, North Alabama, Mercer, Chattanooga, East Tennessee State, Liberty, Florida A&M, UNF if they add football, Jackson State, Tennessee State,North Carolina A&T, UCA, McNeese State, Lamar, Sam Houston State and SFA. Northern Iowa might call for a football only invite like UMass. did with the MAC.
Big Sky could add Central Washington as number 12 member of the conference. Big Sky would also be in trouble if they lose some schools to the MWC. They could look at Western Oregon, Colorado Mesa, CSU-Peublo, Azusa Pacific and Dixie State. 4 to 6 teams lost.
CAA is at 10. You have James Madison and Delaware flirting FBS and Towson may follow them. William & Mary could go to Patriot League. That will leave them at 6. 4 teams moving.

MVFC and MVC are both at 10. The MVC could lose Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, and Indiana State. The football would be down with 5 maybe 4 if Youngstown State gets invited for the MAC. MVFC lose 6, MVC lose 4.

NEC 10 could lose 2

MEAC 12 could lose 4

OVC 12 could lose 3

Patriot League is at 9. Fordham could be aiming higher in the future. They do need to find more full sports members. lose 1

Pioneer is at 10. Dayton might go to full scholarship in the future. lose 1

Southern Conferenceis at 9. lose 3

Southland is at 11 football, 13 all sport. lose 5

SWAC 10 lose 1

AEC 9 could lose 3 schools.

A-Sun 9 could lose 3

A-10 14 could lose 6

Big East 10

Big West 12 could lose 2

Horizon League 10 could lose 4

MAAC 11 could lose 1

Summit 9 could lose 3

WCC 10 could lose 3

WAC 8 could lose 5

That would open spots up for D2 schools in the areas that are needed. The Minnesota schools and Augustana could go to the Summit while some others could go elsewhere. I have looked up schools that are large enough to be D1 and where they can go.

20,000+
San Francisco State 29,905 Big West/WAC
Cal.-Poly-Pomona 22,155 Big West/WAC
CSU-L.A. 21,051 Big West/WAC
Wayne State, Michigan 27,298 Horizon League
Grand alley State 25,460 Horizon League
Simon Fraser 35,604 Big Sky
Alaska combined 25,000 + WAC
Metro State 24,000 WAC
Nova Southeastern 24,148 A-Sun

10,000+
CSU-San Bernardino 17,056 Big West/WAC
CSU-Dominguez Hills 14,670 Big West/WAC
Chico State 16,356 Big West/WAC
CSU-East Bay 14,526 Big West/WAC
Queens, NY 17,639 AEC, MAAC
NY Tech 12,755 AEC/MAAC
Mercy 10,000 NEC
Arkansas Tech 12,009 Southland
Purdue U.-Northwest 15,286 Horizon
Ferris State 14,187 Horizon
UMSL 17,014 Horizon/OVC
Western Washington 13,070 WAC
Central Washington 10,145 Big Sky
Valdosta State 12,898 A-SUN/Big South football or Southern Conference
West Florida 12,823 A-Sun/Big SouthF
West Georgia 11,252 ASun/Big SouthF
Tarleton State 13,020 Southland/WAC
Commerce 12,003 Southland/WAC
Angelo State 10,447 Southland/WAC
West Texas A&M WAC
Central Oklahoma 16,428 Southland
Fort Hays State 14,658 Summit
Central Missouri 14,148 Summit
Pace 12,772 AEC/MAAC
Southern Conn. State 12,326 NEC
Southern New Hampshire 11,253 NEC
Minnesota State-Mankato 15,165 Summit
St. Cloud State 15,092 Summit
Minn.-Duluth 11,018 Summit
Academy of Art (for profit) 16,000 WAC
North Georgia 18,782 A-Sun
West Chester 16,426 AEC/MAAC
Indiana, Pa. 14,638 AEC/MAAC
Kutztown 10,638 AEC/MAAC
Colorado Mesa 11,000 Big Sky
Colorado-Colorado Springs 10,300 WAC
Dixie State 10,000 Big Sky

Large privates or key schools.
LIU-Post 8472 could merge their sports into 1 with LIU-Brooklyn. Football would still be played on the Post campus.
Harding 6009 Southland
Davenport 7594 Horizon
Southern Indiana 9024 OVC
Maryville 6838 Horizon
Lindenwood 9357 Horizon
Adelphi 8110 AEC/MAAC
New Haven 6400 NEC
Winona State 8126 Summit
Hawaii Pacific 9000 big West
Azusa Pacific Big West or WAC/Big SkyF
Columbus State 8597 ASun
Augusta 6,000 ASun
Bloomsburg 9512 MAAC
Barry 9030 ASun
Tampa 7600 ASun
Florida Tech 6451 ASun/Big SouthF

I found that Merrimack is less than 4000 students enrolled. The problem is there are just a few spots that are left that the D2 schools could move up to. There is behind the scene talks that we do not know about. We know that Terleton State is talking to 2 conferences right now. As it is, the conferences with 10 or less should be on the phone talking to other schools for being safe. We already know several D1 schools are looking for a better conference. It would be safe to say there are D2 schools talking to D1 conferences to move up like NEC, ASUN, Summit and WAC. They need the extra cushion just in case before they get caught with their pants down like the WAC. The next expansion explosion could leave some schools without a home like UTRGV, New Jersey Tech and Chicago State.