(11-15-2018 09:44 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-15-2018 08:50 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  That guy from the video really is out there. I think if you mentioned your predictions to a non-political Albertan or Quebecer, they'd probably laugh at the predictions. Sorry to be a bit dismissive, but you appear to reduce the concerns of Quebecois to simply a money grub. The situation is far, far, FAR more complicated than that.

https://zeihan.com/trade-talk-part-i-of-...-going-on/

This guy is all over the map.

He touts the election victory of the CAQ in Quebec, a profoundly pro-Canada party, then in the other video talks about Quebec walking away if they don't get everything they want. BTW, the CAQ got a whopping 37 percent of the vote. Exactly ZERO Quebecois parties, including the PQ want an independence referendum for the forseeable future. The PQ, not least because they fear it would get crushed. I know some pretty damn racist Quebecois who have irrational fears of Muslims. I'll bet they voted CAQ. But they'd vote for the love child of Trudeau and Rachel Notley and sign up for multicultural training if needed to remain in Canada.

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Its also quite easy to overstate the level of REAL autonomy Canadian provinces really have under the "Not Withstanding" autonomy provisions in the Canadian Confederation Agreements. From a practical perspective, the Federal Courts and the Federal Government have a lot of say on exactly what a Province can say no to. And they use it.

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In Ontario, the right wing parties got 40 percent of the votes combined. Also, the Liberals have been in power for 15 years in Ontario.

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Provincial politics is frequently quite different than Federal politics. And Canadians do vote strategically, knowing that first past the post can create unfortunate results.

Its certainly possible that Trudeau can be beaten. But probably only by another Atlanticist/Globalist. By the way, Trudeau's poll rating are pretty good. But, Federal opinion ratings sometimes don't carry through to Provincial elections. First rule of Canadian politics....Canadians are, on the whole, not nearly as partisan as Americans. They don't look at parties the same way Americans do. Like just about everything else in Canada, it looks really familiar until you get below 1,000 feet, then BAM....nope it doesn't work like that.

Sure, Canada has parties on the center-right and the center-left and left. But where you run off the rails is when you assume that just because Americans don't split tickets and party flip in large numbers, to assume that Canadians don't. They do. Part of it, is structural. First past the post requires Canadians to actually THINK about their vote and to vote strategically. For example, one might be a died in the wool, dues paying Liberal Party member, but if they need to vote for a NDPer or even a Tory in order to prevent an overall result they don't want, they might (will) do it. Also, Canadians don't have the stomach for some of the bare knuckled hyperbole in American political discourse. Go too hard, and the voters will punish you for doing so.

Canadian politics tends also to be rather policy orientated too.

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The real problem is that the 'predictor' appears to try to place a Trumpian worldview of politics onto Canadian politics. To truly understand it, which even I don't (and I have years of experience living up there and was even a consultant for a Canadian political party in a National election), you have to NOT look at it like Americans look at politics.