To me, looks like:
6 definite wins
3 losses
3 toss up games

Best case: 10 wins(not including Bowl game).
Worst case: 7 wins(not including Bowl game).

And yes I see Toledo and Ohio as toss up games.
Those two NIU home games are going to be slugfests.
The road game at WMU is going to be interesting. The Broncos are a different team with
Wassink.