There is real evidence out the past couple of years that networks are skittish about committing themselves to big contracts in light of declining subscribers.

Most of that evidence is centered on mid major contracts which have been out. CUSA absorbed a major paycut while conferences like the CAA are having to pick up production costs to be on TV.

Where could things be headed for bigger conferences? Some guesses below.

B1G: Clubhouse leader. Will make things work by shifting 2nd/3rd tier rights around so the conference is making what they were before.

SEC: Performance has dipped from when they signed their TV deal, not withstanding the NC game this year. They might have to add FSU and Clemson to regain interest.

PAC: USC could be paid more if it controlled its 3rd tier rights. I could see more of a B12 TV model here in the future and an attempt to attract Texas. 1st and 2nd tier payout might be limited to 20 million per school, with USC/Texas going 40/50 million with private networks.

ACC: They may allow 3rd tier rights to be bid with a base distribution of 10-15 million dollars. That way FSU, UNC can cash in instead of having to subsidize Wake Forest.

B12: Whether they survive intact or not they'll be looking at per school hit in first and second tier rights which may drop to 10 million per school or less. That is why a combo with the PAC is a real possibility here.

AAC: Interesting to see with a deal up soon. There are two ways I could see their TV deal going. One way is if they were able to get BE money for all of their rights to the tune of 5 million per school by NBC. Another way is they get a 1st/2nd tier deal with ESPN for about the same money per school but are allowed to sell 3rd tier rights. 3rd tier rights are worth a lot to some of the school in the conference (UConn).

MWC: It doesn't seem like these guys are worth anything on a national platform outside of Boise State. They might be willing to accept a national deal for little or no cash BUT sell the third tier rights which is some cases can be lucrative (Hawaii).

MAC: These guys pimped out their football with ESPN for Tuesday/Wednesday games to the tune of almost 1 million per school. Nobody else is willing to do that so they should be good.

CUSA/SBC: Left to mess around with alternative distribution models like Facebook and Stadium for no cash.