(02-08-2018 01:02 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Meant to post this in this thread:

WKU’s stub means Hilltoppers have to win AQ now. No one’s getting in with a 4-5 record against Tier 3 schools.

Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga
Rhode Island
Nevada
Boise
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State

is the new list, imo. SMC/GU/URI safely in. MTSU/NMSU have to win out until title games.

WKU doesn't have much margin for error but that neutral-site win against Purdue is a hell of an arrow in their quiver. Middle Tennessee has the better resume on paper but when humans digest it and go by whatever methods they choose, a win against a 1 or 2 seed will often carry outsize weight.

If WKU wins out the rest of the regular season except for a second loss to Middle Tennessee (a reasonable projection, though ODU and @UAB will be tricky), that gives them an RPI of 43 and the No. 2 seed in the CUSA tournament. If they get La. Tech in the 7-10 game and win, it goes up to 37 (as of now, of course, numbers will fluctuate until then). If that happens, a win over ODU gets them to 32; a loss, back to 43. Sub UAB in the semi and it becomes 35 win/46 loss. And if THAT happens, even a loss to Middle Tennessee in the final takes them to 33 (ODU semi win) or 35 (UAB).

In other words, if WKU wins all the games in which it should be favored and gets to the CUSA final against Middle Tennessee, they're going to be in pretty good shape even with a loss there. Obviously if they win out the regular season, including a win against Middle Tennessee, their case gets a lot better. And one more non-MTSU loss (or quarterfinal tournament flameout) probably does cripple them. But there's a reasonable case for WKU to get an at-large bid — with a neutral-site win against Purdue its possible ace in the hole.