Virginia and North Carolina can't realistically move until a couple years before the ACC grant of rights expire in 2036 or so. The Big Ten's television deal coincidentally (or not) expires around the same time frame as the Big 12's around 2024 (maybe the Pac 12 as well?). So if the Big Ten is negotiating a new contract and a television partner says that the Big Ten would be worth $X as-is but $Y with UT, OU, KU, and one more from a list, and Y > X, then the Big Ten can take that information to the schools they want and get them to potentially be invited. That's a double-edged sword though since those schools can take that figure back to the Big 12's negotiating table and request that the other television partner(s) pay up to keep them in the conference.

I think that Texas is the obvious target but the Big Ten will be extremely picky towards the little brother that catches a ride on UT's coattails. I think Kansas would need to ride along with Texas to get in. They don't bring in enough value on their own thanks to their poor football history, poor football attendance and support, horrible local recruiting territory, overlapping geography, and Nebraska-ish academics. Their elite basketball (potentially until this Adidas scandal gets sorted out) doesn't pay their way in. Frankly, the Big Ten and SEC have a huge bar that is set that new members would have the reach in order to provide more money to the current conference members and be a net positive and Kansas is short due to how high that bar is.

On the other hand, Oklahoma is a big enough football brand to bring in more money for the conference but has academics worse than Nebraska, is demographically/geographically challenged, and could turn into a has-been if cut off from in-conference Texas schools for recruiting. I think OU can be brought in but would need academic cover from an elite school like Texas, but not Kansas despite their AAU status. The major question is, "Does the Big Ten have enough to offer Texas to convince them to leave the Big 12 and to not join another conference?" I don't think so but that could change.

If the Big Ten had a division of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and one of Texas Tech, TCU, Rice, Missouri, Minnesota, or Wisconsin (from an east coast addition), that doesn't look much different from the states Texas currently plays in the Big 12. Can the Big Ten stomach a Texas Tech, TCU, Rice, UConn, etc. for a UT/OU combo? That's the other major question but the SEC could counter with a Texas, Texas Tech (or another school from Texas or whoever UT wants), Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State which reunites UT with Arkansas and Texas A&M. Is that more compact division with historic rivals more favorable? Perhaps the Pac has the best package since they can have Texas bring along at least five friends instead of the more limited number of the Big 10 and SEC.

It will be brands that forge their way into the upper conferences. It will be schools that people will pay to see and therefore make money for the new conference which will be in demand. Usually that means television money and there isn't a bigger moneymaker than football right now. It doesn't matter the population of states the school resides in or what market they are located in but how many people watch their games. That's the difference between now and when Maryland and Rutgers were added. UNC and UVA pale compared to OU and UT but perhaps they could grow enough over time to pay for themselves.