(07-31-2017 12:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-31-2017 09:14 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-31-2017 09:00 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  The PAC are left with the option to pick of Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas St, and Iowa St. Could be worse, they tell themselves, forgetting they had the opportunity to take both Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

^^^ THIS ^^^
If the Pac-12 has ANY foresight whatsoever, they'd lock up OU and OSU right away, possibly even Kansas and Iowa State too. That really hems in Texas, but oh well - they did it to themselves.

Mark that would help the whole situation tremendously, but the problem is the PAC is now solidly in 5th position financially and Oklahoma makes 12 million more per year than the PAC pays in TV revenue. Kansas does as well. Oklahoma State and Iowa State both make 8 million more. And therein lies the rub. The PAC has fallen behind so much they are no longer viable for any other P5 schools.

In 2010 the PAC was 3rd in revenue and much closer to the SEC and ahead of the Big 12. All of the TV payouts in 2010 were closer. Such moves as the one you propose would have been lateral at worst or possibly better in terms of finances even factoring in travel. Now they would represent a huge loss. And in the case of the PAC even if they could attract those 4 it gets them nowhere close to the SEC or Big 10's distributions and both the SEC and Big 10 remain viable for Kansas and Oklahoma, and the SEC is would be viable possibly for OSU with OU.

So the reality is that the time for a move that might bring a relative balance is perhaps past. And it looks as though either the SEC or Big 10 will get stronger.

So from an ACC point of view you had better hope it is the SEC since ESPN won't let us raid you. If it is the Big 10, and they remain in FOX's hands, then when 2036 rolls around it will be you that gets picked apart.

This is why I have said that the only hope for a semblance of balance would be for the PAC to take 4 to 6 of the Big 12 schools. Texas, Tech, Oklahoma, OSU, and or Kansas and Iowa State. A third division of 6 in a new marketable zone would give them perhaps enough new revenue to gain enough ground on the SEC and Big 10 to keep things balanced. The biggest problem with that plan would be that Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas would have to still move for less than they could get elsewhere and would have to make that move simply for the purposes of sticking together.

That would leave precious little for the SEC and Big 10 to get wealthier with. I suppose the SEC might give T.C.U. a look for a greater presence in DFW and maybe we finally look at W.V.U. for #16. The Big 10 might have to look at UConn and give a look to Colorado State. So either way the pickings would be very slim. In that scenario Cincinnati and Notre Dame would finish the ACC out nicely enough to stay about where you are now.

But toss in the PAC's politicization of college football destinations and that pretty well kills the PAC option for most.

So we are going to see a war for Texas and Oklahoma and the winner will distance themselves even more from the other 3 power conferences. If the SEC and Big 10 only land 1 brand each they will still both gain ground, but nobody will outdistance the other 3 by much more (maybe just 3 million more).

But remember it won't be the conferences competing here as much as it will be FOX and ESPN. If FOX loses the battle they'll never be able to catch ESPN or get into the Southeast/Mid Atlantic/Southwest TV markets. There's your real impetus for the war and why the PAC is not a viable option there either. And therein lies the dreams of Texas as a partial member for the ACC.

It is also the only reason I'm still posting on the subject. How this turns out will either set college football on a course to two large leagues of composed of two conferences each, or it will result in an imbalance that assists the destruction of the game by destroying the interest through the imbalance of power. It has already jumped the banks of containment to destroy rivalries. I think that given the financial inequities within the P5 now that 2 leagues may be the best we can hope for already, an that's sad.

And that likelihood continues to grow in that it would be considered a temporary situation that could change after the 2035-36 season.
It also makes room for ESPN to keep Texas and acquire Oklahoma and another Big 8 team. ESPN could insure both Oklahoma and Texas of the continuation of the RRR and a prime TV slot for the game.
It also provides ESPN with a ready made studio in the CTZ for regional broadcasts.