(06-28-2017 10:52 AM)Underdog Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 06:09 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 05:41 PM)Underdog Wrote:  

(06-27-2017 05:11 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  So if we don't have football and the Broken12 raids the AAC, how many will they take, who will they take, and most importantly... what's WSU's chances of being included as a basketball only if we are still a perennial top 25 program?


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If you would please read post #53 in this thread, I provided general answers to your questions. However, if you still want specific answers, I will do my best to provide them for you on tomorrow. Until then, please see if post #53 is satisfactory before we continue….

Quote:Consequently, Wichita St fans should be concerned about what happens to the B12. Also, please consider the conference that had the most potential B12 expansion candidates—the one that your school just joined!

Furthermore, the key to the survival of this conference is what happens to WV (West Virginia). If WV is one of the B12 leftovers, this conference will get decimated. The B12 has discussed in the past about building a bridge to WV. Once its GOR expires and certain schools leave (I anticipate at least 5), the remaining schools will use “American” parts to build a bridge to WV. They will also likely expand past 12 schools to imitate the other “Autonomous” conferences. As a result, there might not be enough schools left for the American to once again raid CUSA. Thus, it could be too weakened by the B12 raid to survive. WS would be in serious trouble for not having a football program should this occur.

Therefore, if WS at least plays FCS, it increases the probability of getting an invite because the B12 leftovers would likely receive a 2 year notice that the other schools are leaving; also, the American would need replacements.

I think I captured the pertinent points. Thanks!

I can't imagine WV staying in a depleted Big12. They are already a regional outlier. They join one of either the B1G, SEC, or ACC IMO. But I can understand the dynamic that would occur in the AAC if they did remain. They've got Cincy and UConn in their backyard.

When the B12’s GOR expires, the B1G and SEC will be making over $55 mil a school. WV doesn’t increase the value of either conference, so it wouldn’t get considered for an invite. Also, the B1G would never invite WV for academic reasons. With the B1G and SEC making that kind of money, the ACC would fall further behind them in tv revenue. WV would not increase the ACC’s revenue enough to add it in my opinion. Moreover, WV is not a marquee school with a large market and national brand. Consequently, odds are that WV will probably get left behind in the B12.

So from both standpoints, what does the Big12 look like after all the defections are complete in your opinion? WV in and WV out.

Based on my above opinion, I have no scenario where WV isn’t left behind. OU and OSU could either end up in the SEC or PAC 12. UT can go wherever it wants to a certain extent—which depends on what it's willing to do with the LHN. UT would also likely try to take TT with it. The only conference that was willing to take UT, TT, OU, and OSU on two separate occasions is the PAC 12. The only other school that I see escaping the B12 implosion is KU, which likely goes to the B1G. Therefore, the B1G 12 leftovers would likely be: Iowa St, Kansas St, Baylor, TCU, and WV.

What happens to the American depends on what they decide to do about WV. They could cut ties with WV and focus on western expansion by raiding the MWC and trying to add BYU, which is a decision that I would make. The main reason they would consider this option is because the only conference to compete with in a western footprint is the PAC 12. However, I think that the B12 will likely build a bridge to WV—which would be a poor decision because their new footprint would be primarily in ACC, B1G, and SEC territories. Nevertheless, I could see the following scenarios (please note that there are so many different scenarios like adding BYU that I only focus on what would happen if American schools were added to a B12/B14/B16):

The B12

Big West: Baylor, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, TCU

Big East: Temple (add only because it was in the oBE), UC, UCF, UConn, USF, WV (this division would have 5 former oBE members)

American Leftovers: ECU (This was a tough choice because it has the best football fan base), SMU (small private that wouldn't be added because TCU is in that market), Tulane (small private), Tulsa (small private), WS (no football program), and Navy which would likely become an independent again. Furthermore, I don’t see the B12 schools agreeing to allow it to keep its Army/Navy game $$ after dealing with Texas and the LHN. SMU, WS, and Navy will face the same issues in each scenario. ECU, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and WS would likely be able to raid CUSA by using the exit fees as a lure. Also, there are some schools in CUSA that desperately want to get out. However, there are too many possible scenarios for me to list regarding the rebuilt American.

The B14

Big West: Baylor, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, TCU, Tulane

Big East: ECU, Temple, UC, UCF, UConn, USF, WV

American Leftovers: SMU, Tulsa, WS, and Navy. Navy goes independent, while SMU and Tulsa try to get into either the MWC or CUSA. WS would likely have to go back to where it came from.

The B16

Big West: Baylor, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, SMU, TCU, Tulane, Tulsa

Big East: ECU, Memphis, Temple, UC, UCF, UConn, USF, WV

American Leftovers: WS and Navy.

I think this would likely happen because it allows for the American to be dissolved, which eliminates any exit fees and encourages each school to join the rebuilt B16. The B12 owns the rights to the B16 name (if I’m not mistaken). Please for give me if I left out a school.


Now what does the AAC look like if it survives and poaches from lower leagues.

There are too many possible scenarios for me to list regarding a rebuilt American. Also, please read the comments next to red font above.

And finally, if you'd be so kind... provide a couple mock scenarios based on your assumptions/opinion showing the type of conference Wichita State would be in after 2025.

Without a football program, WS would likely have to go back to where it came from.

Bear with me here, I'm trying to use your knowledge of the AAC/B12/2025 dynamic (of which I know very little) to support my logic (of which I have a lot) to end, once and for all, the silly rebuttal some Shocker fans have for not at least attempting to restart a sport, that is the #1 defining characteristic of a major athletic university at a time when major universities are regrouping for branding purposes.

The above is only my opinion.... I'm sure there are many members here that have different opinions. Some believe that the American will add the B12 leftovers. Below is a link to a good realignment scenario thread that incudes this conference. The thread is located on the SEC board. I gave a partial response to the op’s suggestion—which I disagreed with and explained why in post #8:

http://csnbbs.com/thread-820708.html

In closing, I hope that my response was satisfactory to you. I really want Shocker fans to feel at home here, but also know that this home could collapse in the future….


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My comments are in bold ^

Thank you for your hard work! I wish I could +1 you. Your analysis falls in line with solid logic. Wichita State is screwed in any probable scenario save for a tiny handful of outcomes.

Wichita State anti-football fan: I will direct you to this post each and every time I hear a negative word about football come out of your mouth. I will then ask if you'd like to see Shocker Basketball relegated to an even weaker MVC... or worse (remember, it will be 2025 with WSU having left the MVC for 7 years) as a result of not restarting football.

Case has been closed.


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