The AAC is under the same pressure other mid-majors are. It's a resource and exposure squeeze. I actually think those networks for the major conferences as well as the TV packages, including the Big East with FOX are eroding the profile of the other schools.

The media coverage is also pushing the power conferences into these Big East-Big Ten, Pac-12-Big XII challenges, as well as the select pre-season tournaments. This is reducing the contact between the levels.

I don't think the AAC is special among the rest. The WCC is probably even or ahead of them, with Gonzaga and St. Mary's a better pair than SMU and Cincy, while BYU is Houston level. But in general the recruits are drifting from the American, just like the other stronger mid-majors, and toward the power conferences. The pre-realignment world, mid-major conferences tended to be dominated by one school with one or two others who would rise modestly to compete. This is because in the invisible world of mid-majors you only get noticed with 25 win seasons.

When I said the AAC was trending that way, I meant they were on a trajectory to be a typical better mid-major, where one school will dominate, and a second might rise to challenge from time to time. Adding or losing a school wont change the dynamic for long, maybe a couple years. The American rode the Big East for almost a half dozen years, but they have drifted back into the mid-major group. Memphis and Temple are no longer a powers (hello UNLV and New Mexico irrelevance), Central and South Florida never were much, nor ECU, Tulsa, or Tulane, while UConn has faded like SDSU. American fans are blind to this, because they perceive themselves better than the other mid-majors. They don't recognize the longer historical mid-major experience now applies to them (IMO because they came from the big East and they used to be a power conference).

I think 4-5 at-large is where it is going to sit for awhile for mid-majors. Not because things have stabilized, but simply because 37-38 P6 is exactly 50% of the 75 schools in the big show. The math of Conference records means that is about all that can ever qualify. 38 got in and the next 16 P6 had winning overall records (14 made the NIT), but with resumes lacking many quality wins with unimpressive conference records. In short this is maxed out for P6 at-large.