http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch says:

"UNC Wilmington [21-4 (10-2), RPI: 46, SOS: 174] The Seahawks are a quality team with four top-100 wins, three of which came on the road. They might be a conference loss or two away from falling off the bubble, and they begin a three-game road trip on Saturday."

Including the First Four, there are 36 at-large bids. The "locks" and "teams that should be in" contribute at least 17 at-large bids. It will be more if any conference with at least one team in one of those two categories has its conference tournaments won by a team from not those two categories. UNCW is one of 36 teams in "work left to do."