(11-07-2016 05:17 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  MAC with four FCS losses, yet still ranked ahead of us.

Jeff Sagarin has something to do with this poll. Therefore the Sun Belt will be at a huge disadvantage. Safarin's point spread model for Sun Belt OOC games has a variance of almost 2 touchdowns. Garbage model.

Basically, Sagarin thinks that most of the Sun Belt would finish in the bottom half of FCS. Even though the MAC and the AAC have more FCS loases in the last 4 years.

Watch Coastal Carolina drop 40 spots in the rankings simply from moving from FCS to the Sun Belt between the end of this season and the beginning of next season.

----

All of the ratings tend to focus almost exclusively on point spreads, not wins and losses. The problem is that Belt teams play more top P5 teams and play more of them on the road. So we have a net negative point spread margin. Sagarin's model (and I suspect the others) really punishes teams for getting blown out.