There may be scenarios where Air Force joined, but BYU I don't think was ever going to happen. Things proved too difficult for the Big 12 and then to join together, so I'd be surprised if they were willing to give up indepedence for the Big East.

Good post. For as bad a decision as turning down that offer was (which would have started the next football season, ending the old deal early), things probably wouldn't be that different. ESPN was definitely going to have escape plans in the contract if it was too heavily raided and those would have come into play. The conference might have still been a bit better off, but it probably wouldn't have been a huge difference.