(05-22-2025 08:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-22-2025 08:28 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(05-22-2025 07:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-22-2025 07:07 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(05-22-2025 09:57 AM)JRsec Wrote:  While our discussion above stands as what I see as being the most likely next move, for the sake of freshness and to address possibilities others are tossing against the wall, and because it is a possibility due to the expansion of the CFP that both the SEC and Big Ten could prosper from additional AQ slots by further consolidation, let's look at plans for the SEC to move to 20. I'd like to tender four separate groupings for discussion to this end as I have heard a variety of ideas for this discussed and all of them have some merit.

Plan one split the baby between football brands and basketball brands and play it safe: Clemson and Florida State for football / North Carolina and Virginia for basketball and markets. And I would substitute Duke for Virginia as a variant.

Why? Clemson and Florida State would likely add the most value and do so by multiplying the number of higher viewer games versus an SEC schedule. North Carolina and Virginia add 20 million to the market reach of the SEC and North Carolina and Duke add the most basketball branding which multiplies the SEC's ratings for Winter sports.

Plan two maximize football revenue period: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech

Why? Not only are you adding the top 3 football revenue producers for the ACC but North Carolina which is positioning to grow their value in that sport and already carry the highest number of viewers in a state of 11 million which would add to the SEC's markets.

Plan three maximize market expansion period: North Carolina, Virginia/Virginia Tech, Kansas, Florida State to attain and keep top add rates in Florida.

Why? Obviously it adds the 3 most logical contiguous markets and secures dominance in the 2nd largest market the SEC occupies.

Plan four dominate your expanded footprint: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, N.C. State or Duke.

Why? Florida State gives the SEC 77% of the Florida college sports viewers when added to the U of Florida. Clemson gives the SEC nearly 100% of the South Carolina sports viewers when added to the U of South Carolina. Adding both North Carolina and a second school from the state (either N.C. State or Duke) gives the SEC the majority of college sports viewers in North Carolina a market of 11 million.

Why did I not mention Notre Dame? They'll stay independent though a scheduling agreement might be productive should we pursue one.

JR, I don’t see an SEC-ND scheduling agreement unless it look imminent that ND is joining the B1G. That would mean the SEC failed at bringing in ND after adding UNC plus friend(s) and to keep the Irish from being a solely B1G product, ESPN made the offer lucrative enough.

Now the interesting part will be the bidding war for UNC. We know both conferences want UNC and UVA. Rumors for years has been the sec would add those two and fsu and cu (football brands help pay for the other two) at a full share per the prorata contract.

What would the B1G ten’s counter offer be? UNC, uva, Miami and Duke on partial shares until next contract renewal? I doubt ESPN would want to offer a fifth full share just for Duke football, but since “Duke’s got money,” see if they’ll take the best offer ESPN gives them and call it a day,…or until ND comes calling.

Could FSU be an option with a Miami to the Big Ten if the SEC does get UNC? According to Matt Hayes: no. Although it was fun watching him rip apart the “social media clowns” that continuously said FSU had a done deal or landing spot with the B1G. FOX would want the Seminoles, not so much the presidents of the B1G

I've never believed the FSU and Clemson to the Big 10 nonsense even when Frank was pushing it.

I also believe the decision this time around will be made by ESPN which will seek to use the SEC to protect the product and markets they want to hang onto. The settlement was made because ESPN and FSU got something each wanted. Now we wait to find out what it was that each thought they were getting. My guess was that FSU could leave and ESPN would help them, but that ESPN wanted to hold onto their rights. If so I expect to see them in the SEC.

Now if ESPN doesn't care about FSU and freed them they did so know the Big 10 wasn't taking them and that they would wind up in the Big 12 where they cost ESPN half as much. Then you might see North Carolina, Virginia, Miami and either Duke or Kansas in the SEC which if Clemson and FSU don't have a Big 10 home would mean that the Big 10's bluff to take them will have been called and ESPN will hold onto Florida with Miami, and hold onto North Carolina possibly with Duke which is what North Carolina wanted if they were to head to the SEC in 2011, and part of Virginia.

What does that do for the SEC/ESPN? It protects markets and eases the degree of football difficulty a bit while adding major Winter brands.

If ESPN did want to keep FSU I think you have your answer on Clemson as well. Add those two to the SEC for football and viewership goes way up and the list of schools having won recent championships is stellar.

The question is what did ESPN want and did that include FSU? We'll see.

It's been a while, but I remember various ideas on the SEC and Big 12 essentially splitting the ACC. That's the scenario that leads to Florida State and Clemson going to the Big 12, and I think it would have to be that because otherwise they can just stick around in the ACC even if they lost face doing it.

For the Big 12 to be worth the move, I think they would have to be killing the ACC. And maybe the Big Ten would help if they were landing Notre Dame in the process.

Something like Florida State, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Pittsburgh to the Big 12.

In that scenario, this presumes something like UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Miami going to the SEC.

With 10 core schools gone, Notre Dame might finally give up the ghost and go to the Big Ten with Stanford or Georgia Tech.

But I tend to think Florida State and Clemson are heading to the SEC. Perhaps UNC is going to wait a while longer, but they could still come with Duke or Virginia. I think the idea of UNC and UVA moving as a pair is viable because there were certain reporters floating the idea long before the Twitterati and the YouTubers picked it up.

I could also see a scheduling agreement with Notre Dame, but I don't think of this in terms of a partial membership. A mutually beneficial agreement could be had that allows 4 games maybe? It gives ND more options and I trust SEC leadership not to give away the hog on an arrangement like that.

I believe that control of the Florida market is too important to ESPN to let it get fouled up by issues the Noles had with the ACC. I think FSU moves to the SEC and that was part of the behind the scenes agreement which led to the settlement. ESPN got the assurances of keeping the property and control of the Florida market and ESPN gets to have payments to the ACC withheld over a period a years by ESPN to cover their exit.

The question in my mind is whether Clemson is essential to the continued presence of Notre Dame? And if so was the scheduling agreement a release of Clemson to travel with FSU to the SEC, or was it a ploy to keep Clemson tied to the ACC. Frankly it could easily be either. If Clemson stays I look for Kansas to be partnered with FSU. If Clemson leaves they'll be FSU's partner to the SEC.

If N.D. stays and Tobacco Road doubles down on the ACC then that may end it all right there and the SEC and Big 10 will stick at 18.

Outside of N.D. there isn't anyone worth the effort if UNC stays put. And if UNC feels they must move I still suspect that what they requested in 2011 will be operative. They wanted Duke as their travel companion then and I believe the SEC presidents would go for it now.

UNC and Duke seems like a move that ESPN would want to make as well. Not that they haven't separated rivals before, but basketball season on ESPN is very different without the regular promotion of both those brands and the rivalry. Duke is a favorite of the promoters and marketers in Bristol so that very much makes sense.

The only real hurdle I see to that, assuming it's UNC's desire, is the power players in the State of NC making an issue of Duke getting the parachute instead of NC State. That to me was one of the reasons a VA school made sense as a partner for UNC. In that scenario, no, the 2nd state doesn't get to go, but neither does the elite private. UNC by themselves is more justifiable from a political perspective compared to a private school that doesn't represent very many people in the state. In the absence of an in-state rival, a closely related out-of-state rival made a lot of sense...especially coming from a market the SEC hadn't already penetrated.