(10-02-2019 06:07 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 11:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:58 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-01-2019 02:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-01-2019 11:00 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I know several Iranians from work. One of them is a very good friend and we talk about this frequently.

In his opinion, the Mullahs are definitely 100% working on a nuclear bomb. They know that the difference between Saddam Hussein and Kim Jong Il/Un is that Kim has nukes.


He also thinks that the West seriously underestimates the opposition that the Mullahs face from the Iranian people.

The Mullahs have little support in Tehran. Tehran is a HUGE city (15 million) that is actually fairly liberal (even by 2000-era US standards) and highly educated. There's 5 real universities with over 100,000 students in Tehran. There's also many liberals in the other bigger cities (Isfahan, 3.4 million; Mashhad, 2.8 million; Tabriz, 1.6 million; Qom, 1.2 million). In a country of 82 million the urban liberals are outnumbered, but they're still a force to be reckoned with.

They don't have much support from ethnic minorities. The country is only 61% Persian - there's significant areas dominated by Azerbaijanis (16%), Kurds (10%), Turkmen (2%, related to Turks), and other groups.

The Mullahs actually do have some surprising support from religious minorities. Although the state religion is Shia Muslim, almost 10% of the population is Sunni. Zoroastrians, Jews, and Christians are also officially recognized by the government and have reserved seats in the Parliament. The religious minorities have their own government-funded school systems and are given considerable autonomy. The government's propaganda loudly claims that they treat minorities better than the Saudis (which is certainly true), Israelis (which may be true), and even better than the USA (which is a gross exaggeration but is widely believed).


My friend claims that the Mullah's biggest strength actually derives from US sanctions. With sanctions in place, all economic activity runs through the Iranian government. If there were no sanctions, Iran's liberals and minorities would be free to make contracts with the outside world. This would allow the opposition to build wealth and power, and challenge the Mullahs. I don't know if that's true, but he has pretty good judgement on other things and hates the Mullahs with a passion.

That philosophy didn't work with China. It strengthened the bad elements.

It did work with Spain, Greece, Chile, South Korea, and arguably South Africa. They were all dictatorships or police states where the US maintained trade relationships. The trade relationships strengthened the opponents of the regime and eventually forced free elections and a transition to Democracy.

There were substantial restrictions with Chile and a boycott of South Africa. South Africa didn't move until the boycott started to hurt the upper class there.

And Spain, Greece, Chile and South Africa had westernized leaders. South Korea was dependent on us for their survival.

I don't know what "Westernized" has to do with it. Pinochet was "Westernized," but then again so was Hitler. Pinochet was pretty brutal with his political opponents. What were the trade restrictions with Chile?


I think the difference with China is that there is a highly centralized authority that runs everything. Chinese culture places high value on deference to authority. China has always had highly centralized authority, and any opposition is grass roots and at the fringes of the empire. Every Chinese empire that fell started to unravel at the fringes first.


Iran is different than China, because the central authority isn't as powerful or as organized. So they can't dominate everything.

You mentioned Chinese culture. That is why westernized is a factor. The values and motivations in Europe are different than China and Iran. So what influence and reactions generated by economic pressures or military actions have different effects.

We've been open with China and they have become more totalitarian. Kindness to Iran means terrorism is easier for them. The people go along.