I have been saying for years OU is almost certain to be the first school to leave the B12 if it remains unstable. They are the most disgruntled member. KU has more political barriers to leaving unless it is obvious the B12 is no longer sustainable. Texas has the LHN money, a conference they mostly control, and a large financial advantage over the all the schools in the conferences, except for OU, whom they still hold a decent financial advantage over, so they have the least incentive to jump first. Plus they can wait and any conference will make room for them. I think the conference that wants to land Texas should focus on OU first, especially if it is the SEC.

Personally, if I was the SEC and going over 16 was not an issue and wanted to land Texas, I would go after OU first. I would start by saying OSU was not acceptable (like was done previously) and tell OU that you would prefer KU as it's partner. If the B1G counter offers OU/KU and they waffle, then tell OU that OSU is acceptable and the SEC would take the pair. That would probably trump the B1G offer, as if it got out OU declined, there would be political hell for them in OK. If the B1G doesn't counter, then hey you just got OU/KU.

Once you have OU, then Texas will face a fan revolt if they turn down a SEC offer. Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Arkansas would be too much to walk away from. Offer Texas and TTU. If you did not land KU with OU, then try to get Texas to come with Kansas, but if they insist on a school from Texas then Tech is the clear choice. When the B12 formed, originally Texas wanted to only come with A&M before the Texas legislature got involved and foisted TTU and Baylor on them. They might be fine with just A&M and themselves being the only SEC schools in Texas. I think TTU will improve dramatically in academics in the future as supposedly Texas wants to emulate the CA system which means pumping some money into TTU. Texas is growing like crazy and having 3 schools there would not be a bad thing going forward. The SEC would end up with ideally OU/KU/Texas/TTU and if not that then OU/OSU/Texas/TTU.

I think OU/Texas for 16 would be too much incoming football power and some schools are going to be pushed down a notch or two in the pecking order. Landing both makes more sense for the status quo of the SEC if you went to 18-20.