(08-07-2018 10:29 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:23 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 10:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(08-07-2018 09:51 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  Translation: “if we’re 50-49 in a 66-34 district... I feel pretty good about taking back the House in 2018.”

More like a 53-42 district. But point taken... sort of.

(08-07-2018 09:53 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:  GOP had a very low turnout. Kind of like when an SEC plays their B squad against a 1-AA team and still wins by 10.

Is that really what happened in OH-12, though?

The district broke 66-29 in 2016 for Frank Tiberi. Its a more traditional, Rockefeller republican district... John Kasich once represented this district. Trump’s Republican Party is consistently underperforming in country club suburban districts that once broke heavily for Republicans.

Trump and the Republicans are doing VERY well with Republican voters despite what you read in the NYT and hear from the never-Trumper paid talking heads. My friends who I would consider most likely to waver are very strongly behind Trump's policies.

Are Republican leaning independents less likely to vote R? Maybe. Democratic leaning blue collar independents are definitely voting more R.

I think the election results will show, relative to 2016

1) Non-college degreed Republicans and Independents are sticking with Trump
2) College degreed individuals are moving heavily to the Dems.

This district is 88 percent non-Hispanic white so there's really very little data to go on regarding minority voters.

Obviously the Dem increase of 10 percent came from somewhere. Was it all just higher Dem voter intensity? I think that was a lot of it, and probably a massive gender gap. I suspect that Trumps numbers among independent white voters with college degrees is where the additional Dem voters are coming from.