(01-12-2018 11:45 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(01-12-2018 02:00 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(01-11-2018 11:17 AM)miko33 Wrote:  I haven't read the entire thread, but IMO the ultimate determinant on which side was going to win was whether the U.S. jumps into the war or stays out of it. If the Japanese never attack Hawaii and the U.S. are never drawn into the war, the Axis wins the war. Since the U.S. entered on the side of the Allies, the WWII would have been won by the allies sooner or later. The U.S.had attributes that the Axis could not overcome - like a large population base, significant natural resources, the best manufacturing base in the world and the advantage of being located far away from the major battlefields. Despite the late technological advances made by the Germans with the jet engine, V1 and V2 missiles and the research on the atomic bomb - all of that was too little and too late.

I imagine a lot of brits would roll their eyes at this statement, because its a very "American" way to view things. You are right in the sense that the US entering the war makes it almost impossible for the axis to win (And both Germany and Japan knew a war with the US was a losing battle) The thing is, I don't think the US stays out regardless.

It's very likely even without Pearl Harbor that the US enters the war eventually anyway. By the time Pearl Harbor happened, the US had already agreed to the land lease deal with Britain, and were already supplying the allied forces. Public Sentiment was already starting to turn in favor of fighting.

Even if you look at Europe, I think there is little chance the US stays neutral forever. FDR was convinced after Dunkirk that the Britiah would surrender. He had already begun to try and work out and arrangement for the UK to sail its Navy into American and Canadian harbors, so the Germans could not make use of them. Those are not actions of a "neutral country"

We were always looking for a way to enter that war. All we needed was a reason. Eventually that reason would have been provided...with or without Pearl Harbor.

I don't know if you would find a consensus on that.

There was vasty anti-war sentiment among the public until the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Wilson needed unrestricted submarine warfare and FDR too would need something.

Our special relationship with Britain didn't exist to the same level prior to WW2, in fact both us and the British had made extensive plans to fight one another through the 20s and 30s. The largest single ethnic group in the US was German, and they were not disposed to fighting Germany.

So, in the end, FDR would have needed something galvanizing and the Germans didn't seem to have a plan to do that.

German-Americans were according to many sources not as inclined to support entering the war on the German side or as inclined to remain neutral as had been the case with WWI when it was not a given that the US would side with the Allies if the US were to enter the war before the mood changed with the offer to Mexico and the increasing outrage over submarine warfare.

A Gallup poll in April 1941 82% of Americans believed the US would join the war in Europe. A month later 13% believed the US was already in thanks to arming the UK and only 14% believed the US would stay out.

Polling concluded a week before Pearl Harbor that 52% believed the US would be at war with Japan shortly and 27% did not think we would be at war with Japan soon, the rest no opinion or didn't know.

The biggest roadblock to entering was some of the wealthiest and most prominent Americans.
You had Ford and Lindbergh who supported Hitler.
Joe Kennedy who was less "for" Hitler and more "anti" British.
Prescott Bush who by several accounts wanted a fascist type government because he thought (like many others) that traditional capitalism had been proven a failure and Communism was inevitable if we didn't move to Fascism but no reputable account has him being a Nazi sympathizer on matters of race though I would expect he had views we today would deem racist.
Then you had a longer list of American millionaires and industrialists who funded directly or at least implicitly supported groups devoted to keeping the US on the sidelines. More than happy to sell to the combatants they weren't interested in seeing the US join.