A couple of interesting notes from the election last night

1) African American turnout exceeded that for Barack Obama's Presidential run in 2012 in Alabama. This was obviously crucial to the election. I suspect that African Americans, saw Roy Moore's history, listened to what their supporters were saying, and (in my view, correctly) saw him as the second coming of a Patterson or a Wallace and voted with urgency to protect their rights and safety. I don't think they were motivated so much by the allegations against Moore, but by Bannon, Trump, and Moore's racist behavior and dog whistles. This is applicable to other states and other minority groups. The 'scare the bejeezus out of minorities' ads in Virginia and Alabama were very effective and they didn't turn off any reachable Anglo voters. They were, from our perspective, justified by the Trumpers' behavior and statements. You'll probably see a lot of them in 2018.

2) White voters did not turn out in large numbers. Anglo turnout was about half that as it was during the Presidential election. I suspect that much of that missing turnout was from people who'd never vote for a Dem, but I suspect that some of that were people who've already walked away from the Trump train and haven't caught the Dem one yet. I suspect that the missing voters would have broken slightly for Moore, but I think that there were plenty who, if compelled to vote, would have voted for Jones.

3) The write-ins were decisive. The desire of a majority of Alabama Republican primary voters to troll with their votes, rather than elect a candidate that was acceptable to a greater percentage of the electorate was also decisive. Republicans have had a history of making that mistake repeatedly. They got away with Trump. But I'm starting to think that is starting to ebb away.

4) Educated voters, albeit in smaller numbers, have started pulling away from Trump. It takes time for someone to admit, even to themselves, that they made a mistake. Usually takes about a year. Moore did very poorly in more educated areas.

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And not only is Alabama far less educated and far less well off than the rest of the country, it is also more Anglo than the rest of the country. Its rather hard to design a more Trump friendly environment than Alabama.

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In Alabama, this simply provides more impetus to the 'rebuilding' of the Democratic Party. They'll not win the Governor's mansion unless Roy is the GOP nominee in 2018, but there are now a large number of identified Dems or potential Dems that probably weren't accounted for in the GOP Gerrymander. I think the Alabama Democratic Party has a window to make themselves more relevant now. Someone who defects from Trumpism isn't likely to return. Someone who just walks away is going to be harder to reel back tot he polls in the next election.

Nationally, this is a disaster for the GOP. Educated GOP voters are leaving, many of their voters are 'voting by abstension', and minority voters are voting in high numbers. Sure, few GOP candidates are as bad as Roy Moore, but few places are as conservative as Alabama.