Here's an interesting statistical analysis on the Democratic primary results so far, considering a couple of factors (non-white share of voters, and region (south vs. non-south) that seem to have been decently predictive of results to date. And poll strength is not the factor.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal...primaries/

The concluding paragraph should make you go - hmm.

Quote:Leaving these important caveats aside, our results suggest that Bernie Sanders is likely to present a strong challenge to Hillary Clinton in the remaining Democratic primaries. Clinton has had a big advantage in the nomination race thus far because so many of the contests have been in the South. After next Tuesday, however, there will be no more primaries in the South. Based on the results presented here, she will be favored over Sanders only in non-southern states in which the nonwhite share of the Democratic primary electorate is at least 40 percent. The key question may be whether the huge delegate lead she has built up by winning southern primaries by landslide margins will be enough to sustain her through the rest of the primary season.