(02-10-2016 11:58 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  

(02-10-2016 09:36 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(02-10-2016 08:41 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(02-10-2016 02:11 AM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  

(12-05-2015 02:25 AM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  At this point, it's going to be either Carson, Cruz, Rubio, or Trump.

With the results from New Hampshire now in, Carson is losing contact with this group and likely will be out of the race soon. By the time the Super Tuesday primaries roll around, expect to see only Bush, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, and Trump still left on the Republican side, with as before only Cruz, Rubio and Trump having a serious chance to win. What's more important now is not who's leading the polls, but rather where the supporters of the candidates who drop out will go. While Trump is leading the national polls so far, among the supporters of candidates who will be dropping out over the next month he might very well be the least favorite candidate of them all, so Cruz and Rubio will close the gap with him. Whether either or which one can pass Trump I don't know (my brother the political science professor thinks Cruz will win out in the end, for what it's worth).

Sanders won the Democratic primary in New Hampshire, but I see Clinton winning a healthy majority of delegates on Super Tuesday and
using that margin to ease into the nomination. The fact that she's even in this position against an opponent who is, well, a crackpot shows just what a weak candidate she is.

Don't count out Kasich quite yet. If Christie throws his support that direction, that would help him. Kasich has no ground game in most of the Super Tuesday primaries but it wouldn't be hard for him to make a significant impact in a few of those states (like Michigan).

Agreed on Kasich.

Rubio-bot is toast - I used to think he had a chance but I think the last two slips of him being a robot have done him in, he just seems so unqualified at the moment and hasn't latched on to a key Republican group (the way Cruz has with evangelicals). Jeb! hasn't been able to garner any momentum yet. Christie can hit hard in debates, but hasn't seemed to been able to connect with voters on his issues. And after that, you've got to really stretch to make an argument for another candidate outside of Trump or Cruz making some noise.

My favorite line from the political media was Politico's "Rubio is not the droid you are looking for..."

I'm still having a hard time accepting that Cruz or Trump could actually win the nomination of a major party. But we really could end up with Trump v Clinton. Still not convinced Sanders has a shot.

Kasich is the Republicans best general election candidate, I think, but I'm not sure he hates non-Republicans enough to win the nomination. Of course, that's why he's a good general election candidate.

Kasich is probably the only candidate on that side of the spectrum that could get true independents or right-leaning liberals to vote Republican. Cruz and Trump definitely can't, and I think Rubio, et al would have a hard time too (except maybe Christie).