(02-10-2016 02:11 AM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  

(12-05-2015 02:25 AM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  At this point, it's going to be either Carson, Cruz, Rubio, or Trump.

With the results from New Hampshire now in, Carson is losing contact with this group and likely will be out of the race soon. By the time the Super Tuesday primaries roll around, expect to see only Bush, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, and Trump still left on the Republican side, with as before only Cruz, Rubio and Trump having a serious chance to win. What's more important now is not who's leading the polls, but rather where the supporters of the candidates who drop out will go. While Trump is leading the national polls so far, among the supporters of candidates who will be dropping out over the next month he might very well be the least favorite candidate of them all, so Cruz and Rubio will close the gap with him. Whether either or which one can pass Trump I don't know (my brother the political science professor thinks Cruz will win out in the end, for what it's worth).

Sanders won the Democratic primary in New Hampshire, but I see Clinton winning a healthy majority of delegates on Super Tuesday and
using that margin to ease into the nomination. The fact that she's even in this position against an opponent who is, well, a crackpot shows just what a weak candidate she is.

Don't count out Kasich quite yet. If Christie throws his support that direction, that would help him. Kasich has no ground game in most of the Super Tuesday primaries but it wouldn't be hard for him to make a significant impact in a few of those states (like Michigan).