(09-22-2015 05:50 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(09-22-2015 04:04 PM)JSA Wrote:  

(09-22-2015 02:18 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  you didn't ask me, but i think the issue with the dems is who draws outside the base?

I think Hillary has strong support from a group of dems too small to win the general election... and no support from the disaffected who flocked to Obama and now somewhat flock to Bernie. And worse for her, she motivates the base on the right to vote against her.

This is the election that an 'outsider' can win. Establishment Republicans who might not otherwise 'aggressively' support someone like Paul or Trump would come out in droves if they were up against Hillary... and Establishment Dems who wouldn't otherwise aggressively support Sanders would similarly do so if Bush were nominated.

That presents four scenarios:

Establishment vs. Establishment (Bush vs. Clinton)
GOP Establishment vs. Dem Outsider (Bush vs. Sanders)
GOP Outsider vs. Dem Establishment (Paul vs. Clinton)
Outsider vs. Outsider (Paul vs. Sanders)

Who wins?

Have we ever had an Outsider vs. Outsider election?

I'm not sure if I'd say Paul is the outsider on the Republican side when you have Trump, Carson and Fiorina there too.

I think Bush, Kasich or Rubio ends up getting the Republican nomination. And call me crazy, but I think the Democratic bid will end up with someone who hasn't officially started his/her bid yet. Biden would be the most logical person, but the NY Post reported earlier this week that some people are trying to get Michael Bloomberg to enter the race on the Democratic side.

I 'think' that JSA was doing as I did and presenting people who represented the position, and not necessarily the only ones who represented that position simply for ease.

I think your idea is entirely possible as at about this time in the cycle 8 years ago, Obama was just starting to get any serious mention at all and Hillary was the presumptive nominee as I recall. Having said that, I think more people are aware of someone like Bloomberg, so he could perhaps come on even later than Obama.

It's odd that a 2 term VP of a relatively (at least within his own party) popular President is such an outsider when it comes to the election. Even if he had previously said he wasn't interested or anything else, the chatter in favor of him is almost non-existent.

JSA, what I'd find interesting is that while outsiders, they'd still obviously carry their parties. Perhaps not 'strongly', but as well it seems as the establishment candidates would, and obviously more with the fringe elements of the parties and independents. The electoral college math might be strained.