(01-23-2023 09:07 AM)Love and Honor Wrote: (01-19-2023 08:17 PM)Alanda Wrote: Nice read. I think UCF is a solid example of what making and following through with the right decisions can do for a school.
That may be true, but let's not kid ourselves here. The huge demographic shifts in favor of Florida in general created a very favorable situation for UCF to tap into. You put the exact same admin in place at a similar-sized directional school in the Rust Belt a few decades ago and you wouldn't get nearly the same success that we've seen in Orlando (as an athletic department or university). UCF still made it happen and they deserve credit for tapping into it, but they aren't where they are today without the State of Florida growing to where it is now.
And at the same time, USF, FAU, and FIU did not take advantage the way UCF did. If Rutgers were in Maine instead of greater NYC, they'd still be in the AAC. If Texas had the same population density as New Mexico, there would be just a few mediocre football programs in the state. Heck, why isn't North Texas entering the Big 12 instead of Houston? They've been around just as long with the same demographic opportunities.
Due to the nature of the conference system, which artificially stifles growth and competition, it is very difficult to build a program beyond the constraints of where the program finds itself without some sort of demographic or financial changes that accrue to an advantage. It's doubtful that anyone could have made Kent State into a P5 program under conditions, but it's also equally likely that the schools that took advantage of opportunities could have ended up failing.
Boise, clearly, has outperformed what any metric suggests that it should accomplish. They are a tremendous outlier, and it sucks for them that competitiveness on the field isn't the only thing that matters in realignment. But everyone that has moved up from the non-AQ/G5 has had changing conditions or a competitive advantage, which coupled with the right decision making, afforded them the opportunity.* TCU had financial and demographic resources coupled with a great FB hire and aggressive realignment moves. Louisville had a major metropolitan area without pro sports and was able to build up support over the years, especially through basketball and the amount of money it brings in for them. Utah similarly had growing demographics along with the PAC-10 having relatively few candidates in their geographic area.
Boise is clearly the best example of building an elite program without any advantages, and it's pretty much the only one. Could UCF have built itself without Florida's population growing and the tremendous student enrollment? No, I don't think so. We've never had an AD of that quality until Danny White, who is ultimately responsible for getting us over the top. But programs should learn from Boise and from North Dakota State, which reminds me a lot of Boise. Commit to a system and hire coaches who are familiar with the system and culture to keep it going when people leave. Always be developing assistants who can be the future HC. Have a great culture where coaches and players want to stay and are committed to the enterprise.
*Except Rutgers. They didn't do anything except found a university right near NYC. Even Maryland at least had success in FB and BB from time to time. There's not a luckier, less deserving P5 program than Rutgers, though a few come close through historical accident.
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A Former SEC Commish, Marshall, The Need For $250K: How UCF Got To The MAC
