Greg Sankey and Kevin Warren walk into the CFP committee meeting with a radical idea for how to determine a conference champion. An idea that has the ability to alter the college football landscape more than anything before it. They announce that since their leagues now sit at 16, they will start holding a four team playoff in 2026 to determine their conference champion. Because these conference champions must go through a rigorous conference playoff, they will be awarded byes in…a new SIX team playoff! A spot will be reserved for the highest ranked conference champion that is not in the B1G/SEC while the other 3 spots will be at-large bids determined by the highest ranking schools (after conference tournaments). Sankey and Warren then slyly look over to one another before saying, “if you don’t accept this, we could always start our own B1G/SEC playoff…”
The room is silent…the other conference commissioners start contemplating their spot within this new structure and what they need to do to survive. If they were to accept this new arrangement, they would essentially agree to three conferences and everyone else. If they don’t accept it, they need to determine what the B1G/SEC could do to render them irrelevant? This proposal is unquestionably targeted toward Sankey and Warren achieving their goals, but it’s far from unreasonable. This idea essentially gives the schools that aren’t invited to the “main” table the chance to find their lifeboat with the third conference and still be guaranteed a spot at the party. If college football were to accept the B1G/SEC terms, insanity would ensue…
The Reaction
B1G/SEC
They keep printing money by selling their conference playoff rights off to FOX/ESPN. These conference playoff games in effect become “Round of 16” and “Quarterfinal” matchups for the CFP. Any school that doesn’t get crowned conference champion still has the ability to get in with an at-large bid afterward. The SEC would all but be guaranteed a second (and possibly third) bid while the B1G could get two spots fairly regularly in the six team playoff.
ACC/B12/PAC
This would be the $&#@ show of all $&#@ shows. It would all start with the B12 and PAC winking at each other. This would completely blow up the ACC’s GOR…Clemson, FSU, Miami, and UNC state their intentions to join the SEC and ND, Stanford, UO, and UW for the B1G while the rest of the ACC declares they’re “Open for Business!” If you do the math, the ACC, B12, and PAC are taking on water and there’s only a single life raft (that seats 20-24)…it all means between 5 and 9 schools are getting left out. The ACC/B12/PAC mold into some sort of third megaconference that will provide the biggest storylines of realignment…Who joins/merges with who? Can we add this team? Can we trim these teams?...Who gets left out?!? This third megaconference has the ability to create their own conference finals and guarantee their champion will be one of the six participants. This NEW conference will have a fair amount of leverage negotiating their next media rights deal and utilize their conference playoffs to close the gap between the B1G/SEC.
Notre Dame
I don’t see this being an extremely hard decision if others accept this model. ND could somewhat consistently make the playoffs as an at-large independent, but their ability to make the playoffs and positioning within them would get a huge boost in the B1G. This factor along with the new conference playoff money could finally be what pushes ND over the edge to join a conference.
The Aftermath
We get three megaconferences. The B1G (plus ND, Stan, UO, UW) and SEC (plus Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC) have the strongest positions within the new CFP, but the NEW megaconference can claim their only “a game” behind them. All three conferences will be able to capitalize off this new model by holding their own portion of the CFP in house. This admittedly won’t bridge the gap the B1G/SEC has on everyone else, but it provides the blue print for all the schools that are on the outside looking in a chance to reassemble into this third megaconference that provides them with the financial resources and content to keep them anything but irrelevant during the next stage of the CFP.
Personally, I think this would be a fun way to spend the next decade determining a national champion, but I’m not a fan of a school that would be left out in the cold (although I’d like to see ISU included)…I’m just a B1G fan looking for preferential treatment. For anyone who read this whole thing, I appreciate your time and curious to know your thoughts are on this whole thing.
The New CFP Bracket -
https://imgur.com/a/VnARtrH