(09-29-2021 06:48 AM)YesCubanB Wrote: IF the MWC decides to add they will be looking at Texas and I seriously doubt UTEP is that high on the list. There’s a lot of history with UTEP with current MWC schools but we’ve seen how little history counts in the last couple of decades.
I think the AAC is playing the long game here. They wanted Boise and SDSU, obviously, but I think they knew those two were gone either way eventually so they took the two they could pick off and that have good potential. Now when the MWC eventually loses Boise and SDSU to P5 or other conferences the AAC is poised yet again to have the strength and pick off any other MWC schools they want or be the first conference other schools try to get into to.
I thought with the current makeup of the MWC all their teams would stay put, I thought they were now the strongest conference of the two, but the stronger conference usually doesn’t have two teams picked off by the weaker one.
The MWC is stronger than the "new" AAC, but unfortunately has a couple of members who seem to be having difficulty comprehending logic.
AFA and CSU want to go to the AAC even though it's a poorer fit for them because they're afraid the Big 12 will cherry-pick BSU. However this doesn't take into account that (1) there's a good chance the Big 12 will stand pat leaving BSU in the MWC and (2) if BSU is taken then at the same time the Big 12 will take Memphis from the AAC. In either scenario the MWC will remain stronger than the AAC,
provided AFA and CSU stay where they are.
So if they do leave they'll be trading a near-guarantee of being in the stronger conference for a gamble that by leaving they
might be able to bring the MWC down to the AAC's level. Viewed from the perspective of game theory both schools would be acting irrationally.
As for SDSU, they're below BSU, Memphis, USF and SMU on the Big 12's radar screen, and if the Pac-12 expands SDSU probably won't even get a look because the UC schools will block them. Consequently the likelihood of both BSU and SDSU leaving the MWC is far less than the likelihood of both Memphis and USF being poached from the AAC. So that scenario isn't a rational basis for AFA and CSU to move either.
The bottom line is that Mike Aresco is an impressive combination of chess master and hustler. He's successfully identified the MWC's only potential vulnerability in the current situation and is going all out to exploit it by playing on irrational fears and promising long-shot benefits. The only open question is whether AFA and CSU will fall for the scam.