(07-24-2021 07:29 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: I’m no expert, but using the valuations from the WSJ that JR had over on the SEC board by best guess is that this conference could pull about $15-16M per school. Not as bad as the $3M/school prophesy that came out of ISU a few years ago but still a steep hair cut.
Am I in the right ball park here?
Yes if they pick the right replacements. It's all about not watering down the valuation per school.
(07-24-2021 12:56 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: With the larger conferences move this thing to a 6+10 which gets more P5 teams but also lowers the bar for independents and G5.
XII expands to 16 and absorbs the AAC in its entirety. That means the MWC, CUSA, SBC and MAC fight over the last automatic spot every year.
If there are two undefeated champs out of the MWC/CUSA/MAC/SBC they are more protected needing only Top 16 to get in.
No. it's about money, it's about how many ways to cut the pie.
Beyond 10 you gain no more YV money, no more CFP spots, no more NCAA Basketball Tournament berths. You just add mouths to feed.
Add the best football program (IMO Luke Fickell at Cincinnati) and the best basketball program (Penny Hardaway at Memphis, which has a top 25 budget in the sport and also brings FedEx backing to the Big 12) and stop there. You want the best programming so that your package has maximum value to ESPN.
BYU brings you the biggest brand, have a completely new audience; but they expand your footprint from Morgantown to Provo, and a host of logistical (i.e., no Sunday games) and potentially legal and political issues (honor code policies). Are they worth it?
UCF and USF completely lack the basketball culture of the Big 12, which money alone cannot fix. They need fans to show up in the several thousands even when they play a Steson or Kennesaw State. That wont cut it in a 4+ bid conference. SMU is completely redundant with TCU, and just not as good at anything.
Houston is pretty solid in basketball (Kalvin Sampson is solid and respected) and football (Dana Holgorsen is solid enough). If Memphis' academics are just not acceptable enough, then Houston becomes my 2nd school.
Colorado State is a lot of meh. They have the resources, the academics, especially impressive as a research institution (legitimately would make the Pac-12 cut) and even are in the same top 60-70 basketball resource program with NIT and NCAA bids in recent years to merit a look. But they have just been mediocre and are second fiddle in Colorado's front rim. If they have a 9 or 10 win football season and another NCAA bid and tournament win, maybe that gets them on the map. But right now I have them as the underachieving could have been.
So if I'm the Big 12 I add two:
1. Cincinnati
2. Memphis (if academics can be overlooked and FedEx brings cash)
3. Houston (backup plan)
And I stop there.