I think comparing the NHL to the MLS is a good place to start when projecting the next MLS TV deal. But other factors like European Leagues also getting TV deals, as well as recognizing the growth of the game in this country as a result.

The MLS on average has roughly had 2/3 the viewing audience of the NHL. This year the MLS has seen a rather significant increase in viewership and actually outperformed the EPL in various weeks. The MLS has seen an increase of 290k average viewership to roughly 400k viewership. The season is still early and numbers could certainly fall back to their numbers.

Another huge factor in all of this is the USMNT deciding to go their own way. I don't know if this will cause potentially less money for the MLS or not.

Judging by ratings alone in comparison to the MLS, I think the MLS is looking at $450m, or perhaps higher. Does the European invasion of TV dilute potential MLS money or spur even greater competition in the growing soccer (football market). That all remains to be seen. The NHL seen more than 3Xs its current deal despite declining ratings and attendance. So I think it's fair to think that the MLS will see as big a jump or bigger.

Tough to say because, if I had to guess, ESPN and Turner priced higher ratings into their NHL deals on the assumption that the same product will get a larger audience on ESPN or TBS than it did on NBCSN.

Also have to factor in that at least half of the value of an NHL TV contract is the playoff season. Without looking at current ratings, I would guess that even an early round NHL playoff game on ESPN is going to have a larger audience than any MLS playoff game on ESPN. And there are a lot of NHL playoff games. So I wouldn't just compare NHL regular season TV ratings to MLS TV ratings, and comparing NHL regular season games on NBCSN (a channel that struggled to get viewers so much that NBC canceled the channel) to MLS ratings on ESPN is another reason the comparison is harder to make.

One thing MLS has going for it is that it offers live sports TV in the summer when there isn't much else other than MLB and golf. The flip side of that is that the total TV audience in the summer is much smaller than in other seasons.

I think the MLS contract will grow for 2 reasons.

1. The infusion of NFL ownership, more and more of it that is, is going to have some sway with broadcasters. They want their investment to pay dividends sooner than later and these are individuals who have established relationships with execs.

2. It looks like MLS franchises will have a more unified approach. Previously, they had a lot of local deals. A single product presented to a national audience will have greater influence in the market.

I'm not saying it will be an astronomical increase, but I have to think all these billionaires have been gambling with their money because they see profits coming down the pike.

One thing I didn't take account for is MLS plays 34 games a year compared to the NHL 82. I still think $350-$400m is entirely possible.

It's the playoff inventory that's most important if we're comparing TV contracts. There are 4 rounds of NHL playoffs including the Stanley Cup finals, and if the average number of games in each series is 5.5, then the inventory of playoff games is a little more than 80 games, all of which are on ESPN/ABC or TBS.

If we guess that ESPN and TBS will average 25-30% more viewers than NBCSN playoff games are getting this year, then they'll average something like 700,000 viewers for an early round game. That's quite a bit better than every MLS playoff game on ESPN, except the final, and again, the NHL has far more playoff games to sell than MLS does.

MLS had a good idea in implementing a one-game-per-round playoff format (instead of two-game ties), and they should stick with it, but that means MLS has only 13 playoff games to sell to TV.

I'm not convinced that the NHL will average 25-30% more on ESPN/TNT than it did on NBC.

(05-29-2021 12:41 AM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  I'm not convinced that the NHL will average 25-30% more on ESPN/TNT than it did on NBC.

Any live sports on ESPN is going to get a larger audience than the same program on a weaker, poorly promoted channel like NBCSN.

Look at FS1, which isn't great but better than NBCSN for drawing viewers, and look at college football TV ratings. When there are similar matchups in the same time window on ESPN and FS1, the ESPN audience is about 50% larger on average.

The MLS contract will grow simply due to the fact that live sports really don't regress in terms of TV revenue, however this MLS/SUM contract is unlikely to be attached to the US National Teams, but it is still likely to include CONCACAF, if renegotiated.

https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/us-s...tract-2022

The value/worth of both is really going to be in question when not bundled.