(01-11-2021 03:56 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote: (01-11-2021 02:55 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: Alabama wouldn't leave the SEC. Life is good and we make plenty of money.
But if you're talking about a program that doesn't have a conference home that exudes stability and money then independence could make sense. Texas could pull it off and USC probably could too.
I agree they wouldn't. I was just saying that if that they would be as profitable if not more even as an independent.
If we assume Alabama leaves the SEC on its own and the rest of the SEC remains intact and backfills with a 14th member (choose anyone you want), both Alabama and the SEC would be hurt depending on how many games Alabama plays vs. the rest of the SEC. If I'm the SEC and got wind of the fact that Alabama was leaving, I could tell my schools to threaten to not play them. It would be highly doubtful that Auburn would ever agree to boycott Alabama (Jrsec you can tell me if this is true or false) if Alabama left the SEC but who thought Texas and Texas A&M would stop playing 10 years ago? But Georgia and Florida hardly play Alabama now, they probably would never play them. LSU and Texas A&M are the big players, if either or both said they won't play Alabama then Alabama would be hurt. Now if Texas is an independent and Texas and Alabama agreed to play annually then Alabama won't miss LSU/A&M. But then that's an additional road game every other year. If Alabama can go independent and still play the popular SEC teams every year without playing the SEC deadweights, sure they'll do it. But why would the other popular SEC teams let Alabama do it? They won't. And there's no way the SEC will let Alabama remain a "partial" like the ACC lets Notre Dame. There's also the issue of men's basketball. Notre Dame has a conference for men's basketball (the best conference for it). Do you think the SEC would let Alabama play in the SEC for men's basketball and other sports but not football? Get real! I'm sure the Sun Belt, Conference USA, or AAC will gladly give Alabama a Notre Dame like deal for 5 games a year (maybe even fewer). OK Alabama fans, how do you feel about playing men's basketball in any of these conferences? Replace Alabama with Ohio State, the SEC with the Big Ten, and the southern conference with the MAC and you can say the same thing.
Now Texas going independent makes more sense, especially if Oklahoma leaves the Big 12 for another conference and the Big 12 can either have Texas as a partial member or not at all. The SEC without Alabama would no doubt be weaker than with Alabama but they'd at least be strong enough to stand up to them (or at least the stronger members could).
What I can certainly see is a "split" like when the WAC and the old Big East split. Now those conferences weren't as valuable as the SEC and Big Ten are now. For a group of SEC or Big Ten members to break away they would have to make more members apart from the rest of the conference than with them. Alabama would be stupid to leave the SEC on their own but what if they were to go to Auburn, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas A&M and break away from the SEC to form their own conference and invite Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma, and Texas? Instead of OU and UT joining a 16 team SEC where they have to share the payout 16 ways they would share this payout (which would arguably be close to as valuable as the current SEC) 10 ways and they'd get to play all the top draws every season rather than (assuming the SEC keeps divisions) almost never playing SEC East teams. Or how about Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee with Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, and Louisville forming a true "Southeastern" Conference? Maybe that would be more valuable than the SEC now. They'd own Florida and expand to Carolina and Virginia. With the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 having so much overlap, you can virtually pick and choose your ideal conference of the top teams and pitch it to them and offer them megabucks without drastically increasing their travel budgets. I mentioned a super conference in my last post. As long as you keep the West Coast schools separate, even that isn't too much. Penn State and Ohio State currently travel to Nebraska now, Oklahoma and Texas aren't that further away. In men's and women's basketball, I'd set up travel pairs. In the current Big Ten, you can have a football week where Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State all play duds. This season the first SEC on CBS game featured Mississippi State. You put together a "super conference" you'll always get a top game every week. Do I see this happening and replacing the SEC and/or Big Ten? No. But it's more likely than Alabama and/or Ohio State becoming independents.