RE: A Wild Card Game (before 8-team playoff) Feedback requested.
History of top non-champions before and after CCGs (using AP ranks):
2020 Before: #5 Texas A&M (7-1), #7 Indiana (6-1) // #10 Georgia (7-2)
2020 After: #4 Notre Dame (10-1), #5 Texas A&M (8-1), #7 Indiana (6-1)
2019 Before: #7 Florida (10-2), #9 Alabama (10-2) // #11 Auburn (9-3)
2019 After: #5 Georgia (11-2), #6 Florida (10-2), #9 Alabama (10-2)
2018 Before: #3 Notre Dame (12-0), #8 Michigan (10-2) // #11 Florida (9-3)
2018 After: #3 Notre Dame (12-0), #6 Georgia (11-2), #8 Michigan (10-2)
2017 Before: #5 Alabama (11-1), #9 Penn State (10-2) // #13 Washington (10-2)
2017 After: #4 Alabama (11-1), #6 Wisconsin (12-1), #7 Auburn (10-3) // #9 Penn State (10-2)
2016 Before: #2 Ohio State (11-1), #5 Michigan (10-2) // #10 USC (9-3)
2016 After: #2 Ohio State (11-1), #6 Michigan (10-2), #8 Wisconsin (10-3) // #9 USC (9-3)
2015 Before: #6 Ohio State (11-1), #9 Notre Dame (10-2) // #10 Florida St (10-2)
2015 After: #6 Iowa (12-1), #7 Ohio State (11-1), #8 Notre Dame (10-2)
2014 Before: #7 Michigan St (10-2), #10 Miss State (10-2) // #13 Ole Miss (9-3)
2014 After: #7 Michigan St (10-2), #8 Miss State (10-2), loser of #4 Baylor-#6 TCU rematch
Possible Objections and Responses
Why would you pair off 2 playoff-caliber teams before the playoff even starts, shouldn't the top 2 at-larges BOTH make the playoff?
In all but the odd cases of 2014 and 2016, exactly 1 of the 2 WCG teams would have made the playoff without the additional game. The other at large spot has been taken by a team losing its CCG.
Doesn't this put MORE focus on whatever ranking system is used?
In 6 of 7 years, the 3rd at large team either had more losses or was ranked 4 spots below the 2nd, making the choice of which 2 teams should play off in the WCG easy. The exception was 2015, when both Notre Dame and Florida State were very similarly ranked, and the polls had to make the determination between the two. By contrast, the 2nd and 3rd at larges are within 2 spots in ALL 7 years (with assumptions about 2014); meaning picking 2 of those 3 teams would be more ranking-dependent without a WCG.
Won't this give an undeserving team (maybe even with 3 losses) a chance at the playoff?
A 3-loss team never entered the final weekend as 1 of the top 2 at larges; but, it could happen. It also happens in conferences all the time, though that lower ranked school rarely wins (#9 Washington won the Pac-12 at 10-3 in 2018). #9 Penn State (10-2) in 2017 is also the only WCG team who finished outside the Top 3 among at larges, but should they have defeated Alabama in the WCG, they'd likely vault both the Tide and Tigers to become 1 of the top 2 at larges by rank anyway.
Okay, I noticed #2 Ohio State (11-1) and #5 Michigan (10-2) would rematch in 2016, a week after their regular season double-overtime thriller?
Yes, #8 Penn State (10-2) won that division. I've entertained the idea of forbidding a rematch if the lower ranked team already lost to the higher ranked team, which in this case would send #10 USC (9-3) to play Ohio State... but this might amount to giving Michigan a bye into the playoff. Because rematches are a possibility in CCGs, they will remain a possibility for the WCG.
|