(11-22-2020 04:36 AM)Edgebrookjeff Wrote: (11-22-2020 02:24 AM)CaliWG Wrote: What does UC have to lose by playing BYU? No other G5 team is going to pass them with 1 loss to a Top 10 team. When the CFP Rankings come out on Tuesday you’ll see that teams like Marshall & Coastal Carolina are barely in the Top 25. As long as UC takes care of business in the AAC they’re getting the NY6 bid. Scheduling BYU is like playing with house money. And both programs owe it to the rest of the non P5 schools to try to break the CFP glass ceiling when there’s a legitimate path available to do so.
There's no guarantee that a loss to BYU wouldn't drop us below an undefeated Marshall or Coastal Carolina. The voters would love to put a cinderella in the NY6 over a 1 loss AAC champ. The risk/reward is too great. Do you really think that beating an overrated BYU team would put us in the CFP. I think we'll either see 2 teams from the SEC or the ACC get in. And if that doesn't pan out, they'll allow a 2 loss Oklahome in before UC.
Have you actually looked at the ranking history of G5’s that earn the NY6 bid? Here is some notable data on past NY6/BCS auto bid winners:
2016 WMU (13-0 #15): Temple (10-3 #24), SDSU (11-3 NR)
2014 Boise (10-2 #19): Marshall (12-1 NR), Memphis/UCF/UC (9-3 NR)
2012 NIU (13-0 #15): Boise (11-2 #19)
AAC/MWC Teams that finished ranked “low”:
2019 Memphis #17: L to okay Temple team
2019 Boise #19: L to mediocre BYU team
2015 Houston #18: L to mediocre UConn team
2014 Boise (11-2 #20): 2 L’s to good teams Ole Miss & AF
2015 Navy (10-2 #21): 2 L’s to good teams ND & Houston
2018 Fresno (11-2 #21): 1 L to good Boise, 1 L at Minn
The Apparent Outlier:
2019 App State (12-1 #20): 2 road W’s vs P5s, L to mediocre Ga Southern
>So ASU earned the AAC/MWC treatment with those wins & then got the same treatment with a bad loss
Basically, it takes an L to a bad team or 2 L’s to good teams by the AAC/MWC Champs to even get the other G5 Champs in the discussion for the NY6 bid. A UC L to a Top 10 BYU wouldn’t put UC’s bid in jeopardy at all as long as they take care of business in the AAC.