There's a pretty public rift going on in the Big 10 right now. I highly doubt that even if the Big 10 had all members on board with playing (which they don't) that they would be able to scrape a season together in time to play in the fall. The scenario is no season happens for the Big 10 and the schools that wanted to play split off from the schools that didn't and 2 conferences come out of it.


Split off:
Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska & Wisconsin

Big 10:
Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern & Purdue.

Both would target schools that culturally fit and are geographically close. The schools that split off would likely target the northeast ACC schools, Pitt, Syracuse & Boston College. Not sure if that would be enticing enough for those schools to fight the ACC's GOR in court, for the sake of the scenario I'm going to say it is. Iowa State & WV would be targeted as well to round them out at 10.

The Big 10 would want to keep a foothold in Ohio and quickly grab Cincinnati to get to 10.

The ACC now at 11 looks for a football first school in the south and adds UCF preventing the Big 12 from getting a foothold in Florida.
The Big 12 now at 8 adds Memphis & Houston.

Big 10
Out = Ohio St, Iowa, Penn St, Nebraska, Wisconsin.
In = Cincinnati
Members = Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue & Cincinnati

ACC
Out = Pitt, Syracuse, BC
In = UCF
Members = FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, UNC, NC State, Duke, WF, Virginia, VT, Louisville & UCF

Big 12
Out = Iowa State, West Virginia
In = Houston, Memphis
Members = Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Houston & Memphis

New Conference
Members = Ohio St, Penn St, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, WV, Iowa St

SEC & Pac 12 unchanged. ND remains indy and keeps it's scheduling agreement w/ the ACC.

Thanks for giving me a second reason to use this gif...



The presidents of many of those schools have no interest whatsoever in being in an alliance with some of the schools you listed based on academics. The thought that Duke and the rest of the Tobacco Road gang would replace Pitt and Syracuse with UCF harkens the phrase "don't get high on your own supply."

USFFan

I live in Wisconsin. There is absolutely no possible way Wisconsin would leave the Big 10. None. Zip. Less than zero. I used to live in Iowa. There is absolutely no possible way Iowa would leave the Big 10. None. Zip. Less than zero. Even a smaller chance Iowa joins a conference with their perceived little sister, Iowa State.

Further, there is no way the Presidents of the Big 10 universities break up the conference for something as insignificant as athletics. Those schools are academically tied to each other. Athletics is simply something to appease boosters and generate donations. Big time sports are a marketing expense for the school, nothing more. Fans takes athletics way too seriously.

(09-11-2020 02:39 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  There's a pretty public rift going on in the Big 10 right now. I highly doubt that even if the Big 10 had all members on board with playing (which they don't) that they would be able to scrape a season together in time to play in the fall. The scenario is no season happens for the Big 10 and the schools that wanted to play split off from the schools that didn't and 2 conferences come out of it.


Split off:
Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska & Wisconsin

Big 10:
Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern & Purdue.

Both would target schools that culturally fit and are geographically close. The schools that split off would likely target the northeast ACC schools, Pitt, Syracuse & Boston College. Not sure if that would be enticing enough for those schools to fight the ACC's GOR in court, for the sake of the scenario I'm going to say it is. Iowa State & WV would be targeted as well to round them out at 10.

The Big 10 would want to keep a foothold in Ohio and quickly grab Cincinnati to get to 10.

The ACC now at 11 looks for a football first school in the south and adds UCF preventing the Big 12 from getting a foothold in Florida.
The Big 12 now at 8 adds Memphis & Houston.

Big 10
Out = Ohio St, Iowa, Penn St, Nebraska, Wisconsin.
In = Cincinnati
Members = Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue & Cincinnati

ACC
Out = Pitt, Syracuse, BC
In = UCF
Members = FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, UNC, NC State, Duke, WF, Virginia, VT, Louisville & UCF

Big 12
Out = Iowa State, West Virginia
In = Houston, Memphis
Members = Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Houston & Memphis

New Conference
Members = Ohio St, Penn St, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, WV, Iowa St

SEC & Pac 12 unchanged. ND remains indy and keeps it's scheduling agreement w/ the ACC.

This scenario sounds suspiciously like a far fetched way to rationalize getting the bolded phrase into the conversation.

Nobody "targets" Boston College. They are the Northeast's version of Tulane.

If the B1G losses Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska & Wisconsin they are not a predator conference any more. They can't get ACC schools now, what makes you think they'll be able to get them if they lose those 5 school.

JR had a take on this where tOSU, Iowa Nebr and Mich went to the SEC and PSU went to the ACC. That seems more feasible.... at least as feasible as the B1G losing Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska & Wisconsin.

(09-11-2020 02:39 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  There's a pretty public rift going on in the Big 10 right now. I highly doubt that even if the Big 10 had all members on board with playing (which they don't) that they would be able to scrape a season together in time to play in the fall. The scenario is no season happens for the Big 10 and the schools that wanted to play split off from the schools that didn't and 2 conferences come out of it.


Split off:
Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska & Wisconsin

Big 10:
Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern & Purdue.

Both would target schools that culturally fit and are geographically close. The schools that split off would likely target the northeast ACC schools, Pitt, Syracuse & Boston College. Not sure if that would be enticing enough for those schools to fight the ACC's GOR in court, for the sake of the scenario I'm going to say it is. Iowa State & WV would be targeted as well to round them out at 10.

The Big 10 would want to keep a foothold in Ohio and quickly grab Cincinnati to get to 10.

The ACC now at 11 looks for a football first school in the south and adds UCF preventing the Big 12 from getting a foothold in Florida.
The Big 12 now at 8 adds Memphis & Houston.

Big 10
Out = Ohio St, Iowa, Penn St, Nebraska, Wisconsin.
In = Cincinnati
Members = Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue & Cincinnati

ACC
Out = Pitt, Syracuse, BC
In = UCF.........................

The B10 is not breaking up over the fact that they no longer run college football.

Push factors are what moves teams in the P-5.

Nebraska has recruiting and cultural reasons to leave.

Any of those in small football stadium may reasonably conclude they can no longer compete with PSU, OSU, UM, Wisky, and MSU, but that's mitigated by their basketball programs. No one at the cultural center of their conference has ever left a P-5 conference.

Will never happen. But I'll play.

If it came down to a split over corona, Purdue would join OSU/Wisconsin/Penn State. They're not stupid. And they weren't strongly against playing in the first place (unlike Illinois & Minnesota).

If Purdue comes, so does Indiana. The offshoots take them both because it's essential to Iowa & Wisconsin that their conference dominates the Chicago market (OSU & Nebraska want this too). Chicago (like New York) can not be dominated with just one school. Chicago is the #1 market for grads from Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana.

So you have 7 schools (West-to-East Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State). Its fanbases all overlap without gaps. It retains 4 of the 5 biggest B10 football fanbases and 4 of the 5 largest basketball fanbases (by attendance). They drop 4 of the 5 smallest B10 fanbases in each sport. So they're probably worth 75% of the Big Ten's TV value, putting their TV rights at an astonishing $81 million per school.

At that valuation, the only schools that would increase average payout are Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, USC, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. A few others would break even, like LSU, FSU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, or maybe UNC. But there's no reason to add most of those schools.

They probably add Michigan as # 8 as soon as corona is over, pushing their average payout over $85 million. Play a 7-game round robin in football and have 5 out of conference games.


(As much as I want to say "they'd add Cincinnati," the only reason they'd add UC is if they need an 8th member for football during corona.)

(09-11-2020 05:17 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Will never happen. But I'll play.

If it came down to a split over corona, Purdue would join OSU/Wisconsin/Penn State. They're not stupid. And they weren't strongly against playing in the first place (unlike Illinois & Minnesota).

If Purdue comes, so does Indiana. The offshoots take them both because it's essential to Iowa & Wisconsin that their conference dominates the Chicago market (OSU & Nebraska want this too). Chicago (like New York) can not be dominated with just one school. Chicago is the #1 market for grads from Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana.

So you have 7 schools (West-to-East Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State). Its fanbases all overlap without gaps. It retains 4 of the 5 biggest B10 football fanbases and 4 of the 5 largest basketball fanbases (by attendance). They drop 4 of the 5 smallest B10 fanbases in each sport. So they're probably worth 75% of the Big Ten's TV value, putting their TV rights at an astonishing $81 million per school.

At that valuation, the only schools that would increase average payout are Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, USC, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. A few others would break even, like LSU, FSU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, or maybe UNC. But there's no reason to add most of those schools.

They probably add Michigan as # 8 as soon as corona is over, pushing their average payout over $85 million. Play a 7-game round robin in football and have 5 out of conference games.


(As much as I want to say "they'd add Cincinnati," the only reason they'd add UC is if they need an 8th member for football during corona.)

It can happen and more easily than you might think. But it won't happen the way you think.

By 2024 the SEC payouts per team will be 68 - 72 million depending upon the final disposition of the new contract. It could start 2 years earlier if ABC was successful in buying out CBS's remaining contract after this year.

Here are the preconditions:

Nebraska does leave (which breaks the GOR which more importantly was likely broken by the non play order).

The courts rule that pay for play is in order.

That leaves Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin as the major earners who are dependent upon sizeable football crowds and which drive the revenue.

With the GOR open, Nebraska leaving, and the current Big 10 contract diminished the other 6 schools have some serious considerations to make.

Why?

If they are going to continue playing football at the upper echelon they will need to stay competitive in revenue. With Nebraska going back to the Big 12 it isn't likely they are adding Texas or Oklahoma. The SEC schools are at the top of the food chain and aren't moving and the only likely defection from the SEC due to pay for play would be Vanderbilt and that's not even certain. At the departure of Nebraska you better believe Penn State would be checking out their options.

They all need solid recruiting grounds and Ohio State already recruits nationally, but they could benefit immensely by playing more games in the Southeast. They also benefit from playing home and home's in large venues (Texas A&M, Alabama, Tennessee, & L.S.U. are all over 100,000 and Georgia is at 92,000 and Auburn at 87,000).

Contiguity is in effect. If the Big 10 under these circumstances found the possible dissolution of their conference I would think it prudent to preserve and expand the academic consortia. Pay for play essentially divorces athletics from academics. They night as well take advantage of that instead of turning it into a loss of academic alliances. Besides they can Texas, Texas A&M, Florida, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Duke, or Virginia as academic members without affecting athletic allegiances. This does more good for the Big 10 than hanging onto a century old model that has been outdated for most of its life.

So the sports teams would head elsewhere. Iowa with Nebraska to the Big 12 makes sense as Iowa wouldn't be as attractive to the SEC and too remote for the ACC and PAC. Ohio State as an anchor for a North Division in the SEC makes money for both and a great deal of sense while giving the Buckeyes immense exposure in the Southeast. If Michigan wants to come with them fine. If Vanderbilt does drop down then Wisconsin has a spot as well.

If B.C. and Wake opt out of the ACC then Michigan State, Purdue, and Penn State make sense along with Notre Dame.

The ACC looks like this:
Michigan State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Louisville, Notre Dame, Purdue, Virginia Tech
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

The SEC like this:
Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana State, Texas A&M
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee

The Big 12 is now at 12. The PAC has no means of catching up and the two state schools of California will have political entanglements. So the two privates make moves to secure their futures as Stanford and Southern Cal join the Big 12 with Oregon and Washington.

The two Arizona schools are running high subsidies for the P5 and Utah is in significant red ink. Oregon State and Washington State drag up the rear of the P5 in many statistical categories. Colorado is a big question but West Virginia is the better value. Should Baylor or T.C.U. drop out with pay for play (which I doubt) it would leave an opening for the Buffs. Barring that the Big 12 is now:
Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, West Virginia
Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Baylor, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech

Now as to your assumptions you should go to the Gross Total Revenue figures to find who would add and who would not add to the Big 10. I don't think UNC doesn't it for them. But neither do a couple of others you mentioned. But the deal here is that with 6 money schools left it is easier for all of them to join more profitably elsewhere than to try to attract schools which would add to their value and recruiting ground access is both very important to them and deal breaker for those they might reach out to.

Eventually the recruiting alone is going to be quite the problem for the Big 10 power football schools whether we have pay for play or not. It will never be a problem for the SEC or ACC or SWC. That's why the latter 3 will survive.

If Ohio St, Nebraska, and some of the other Big Ten bread winners lead a revolt they are going to set their sites a little higher than BC, Pitt, Cuse, WVU, and Iowa St.

I’m calling USC, Texas, and Oklahoma to gauge their interest and who they’d want to bring along.

(09-11-2020 06:37 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If Ohio St, Nebraska, and some of the other Big Ten bread winners lead a revolt they are going to set their sites a little higher than BC, Pitt, Cuse, WVU, and Iowa St.

I’m calling USC, Texas, and Oklahoma to gauge their interest and who they’d want to bring along.

If they could pull it off that would be an interesting consolidation but no dead weight:

Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Utah, Washington
Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas
Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

There's 15 that make plenty of money.

(09-11-2020 05:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Now as to your assumptions you should go to the Gross Total Revenue figures to find who would add and who would not add to the Big 10. I don't think UNC doesn't it for them. But neither do a couple of others you mentioned. But the deal here is that with 6 money schools left it is easier for all of them to join more profitably elsewhere than to try to attract schools which would add to their value and recruiting ground access is both very important to them and deal breaker for those they might reach out to.

Eventually the recruiting alone is going to be quite the problem for the Big 10 power football schools whether we have pay for play or not. It will never be a problem for the SEC or ACC or SWC. That's why the latter 3 will survive.

Any major conference down to six at this point would become a de facto G conference because the only ones willing to move up would come from the G level. So, yes, I would expect the remaining six to hold their noses and head elsewhere.

Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Iowa State, West Virginia, Rutgers
Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Kansas, Kansas State
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State, Pitt, Penn State, Syracuse
Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke
Louisville, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame

Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State
Texas A&M, Louisiana State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama
Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina

No one would miss Nebraska. Where would they go?

How does adding arrogant schools from demographically dying Rust Belt states benefit the SEC or ACC?

(09-11-2020 10:11 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  How does adding arrogant schools from demographically dying Rust Belt states benefit the SEC or ACC?

1 Large affluent travel crowds.
2. National Brand Content multipliers as they draw national audiences already.
3. The Market addition is rabid and very large.

So Penn State adds dramatically to the value of the ACC and Ohio State adds well to the branding of the SEC and with Michigan they do so even more because of the nature of the rivalry. And because of that both the joining Big 10 schools and the conferences they join add revenue, Penn State a little less than Ohio State and/or Michigan. ESPN would love to pay for that.

(09-11-2020 05:17 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Will never happen. But I'll play.

If it came down to a split over corona, Purdue would join OSU/Wisconsin/Penn State. They're not stupid. And they weren't strongly against playing in the first place (unlike Illinois & Minnesota).

If Purdue comes, so does Indiana. The offshoots take them both because it's essential to Iowa & Wisconsin that their conference dominates the Chicago market (OSU & Nebraska want this too). Chicago (like New York) can not be dominated with just one school. Chicago is the #1 market for grads from Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana.

So you have 7 schools (West-to-East Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State). Its fanbases all overlap without gaps. It retains 4 of the 5 biggest B10 football fanbases and 4 of the 5 largest basketball fanbases (by attendance). They drop 4 of the 5 smallest B10 fanbases in each sport. So they're probably worth 75% of the Big Ten's TV value, putting their TV rights at an astonishing $81 million per school.

At that valuation, the only schools that would increase average payout are Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, USC, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. A few others would break even, like LSU, FSU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, or maybe UNC. But there's no reason to add most of those schools.

They probably add Michigan as # 8 as soon as corona is over, pushing their average payout over $85 million. Play a 7-game round robin in football and have 5 out of conference games.


(As much as I want to say "they'd add Cincinnati," the only reason they'd add UC is if they need an 8th member for football during corona.)

Responding to your post but also addressing others at the same time (bc its late and I'm being lazy). If the split happens based on not playing due to covid it would be the minority that lost the vote that would leave which is why I had the Michigan teams staying as well as all the Indiana teams who by the info were getting seem dug in while Penn St originally a no seems to be looking for an exit to that.

After that assessment I took it on a action reaction basis. The teams that broke off would be the ones targeting the northeast ACC teams as well as Iowa St & WV (all teams that are playing). Pitt & Iowa St are AAU schools that fit with the previous Big 10 model while Cuse, BC & WV have long standing history with the other programs via the old Big East.

After those schools break off the remaining Big 10 members would need to immediately act to stabilize and not be a feast for the crows (ha GoT reference). Note that this is happening the same time the leaving members are inviting the teams they hope to form a conference with. Being a northern conference and having the schools from areas that are not in lockstep with them break off they will want to add a school that fills in their new gaps geographically and isn't a cultural outsider (hence no attempt at the Kansas schools, Mizzou, Kentucky or Louisville). A little spite and more logic means Cinci fits the bill and as a P5 calls they accept (like any outside would right now), that also takes them off the table for the ACC potentially calling.

After those simultaneous moves the ACC & Big 12 are left with vacancies, ACC at 11 and Big 12 at 8. The Big 12 very well could offer UCF & USF first but even if they do I think the ACC offers UCF to 1) fill in the massive geographical gap between FSU & Miami 2) add a football first school in a priority recruiting area and 3) add a football program that's consistently in the top 25 & has been in 3 NY6 bowls in the last 6 years.
After the Big 12 gets shut out of FL they grab the best available football programs that make geographic sense so they add Memphis & Houston.

With the Pac 12 shutting down and no one caring, the Big 10 shutting down and only a few schools caring it shows where CFB is prioritized. For expansion/realignment all compasses point east and most point south depending on the conferences culture.

To other posters assuming I'm just trying to find a way to get UCF into the ACC, I understand but I'm literally just playing a scenario of what if the Big 10 rips apart because of the covid reaction. Above is my step by step thought process for it, I'd like to hear yours (hence this thread).

(09-11-2020 10:11 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  How does adding arrogant schools from demographically dying Rust Belt states benefit the SEC or ACC?

Rust Belt states makeup 5 of the 10 most populus states. 4 of the 5 gained population since the 2010 census.

(09-11-2020 02:59 PM)MU88 Wrote:  I live in Wisconsin. There is absolutely no possible way Wisconsin would leave the Big 10. None. Zip. Less than zero. I used to live in Iowa. There is absolutely no possible way Iowa would leave the Big 10. None. Zip. Less than zero. Even a smaller chance Iowa joins a conference with their perceived little sister, Iowa State.

Further, there is no way the Presidents of the Big 10 universities break up the conference for something as insignificant as athletics. Those schools are academically tied to each other. Athletics is simply something to appease boosters and generate donations. Big time sports are a marketing expense for the school, nothing more. Fans takes athletics way too seriously.

I believe those insignificant athletics bring north of 77 million dollars annually in TV revenues alone. Kind of a big deal.

(09-11-2020 11:18 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(09-11-2020 10:11 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  How does adding arrogant schools from demographically dying Rust Belt states benefit the SEC or ACC?

Rust Belt states makeup 5 of the 10 most populus states. 4 of the 5 gained population since the 2010 census.

Lol, love how he called them "arrogant" as he was being arrogant!

Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska and Michigan State have nothing to worry about. I'd even through Indiana in with that group. The BIG Ten as a whole, can go to hell as far as I'm concerned. Now, while the ACC boys are still beating their chests, just remember TV numbers don't lie. I'll be extremely interested in TV numbers THIS year, it will be very telling! Clemson is on another level, but that Georgia Tech vs. Florida State game is intriguing. I'll be very interested in that TV rating.