Attackcoog
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RE: 'A nightmare for college athletics
(02-15-2020 11:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (02-14-2020 10:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (02-14-2020 09:18 PM)Go College Sports Wrote: They don't make a profit because there is no point to them making a profit. That's not a thing they intend to do. Their costs are not fixed. If schools suddenly find themselves in a deficit, they'll pay a baseball coach $400k instead of half a million, and reduce other line items similarly. Any Power 5 Athletic Director who would make the case that they can't run a twenty sport athletic department on $100M, with or without amateurism, is either telling a bald faced lie or is really bad at a job they are paid well to do.
Your missing the point. Why are coaches making 7 million right now? Cuz some schools have way more money than other schools and they arent allowed by rule to use that money paying players. So, they use that money to get a competitive advantage by spending it on coaches and facilities.
When the schools can use the money on players, the 5 to 10 schools that have a 80,000 to 100,000 fans in the stands every Saturday will simply buy the top 1000 athletes. There are many more athletes than coaches--so thats going to get very expensive very fast. Even if your non-big money team hangs around skimps and saves and finds a few diamonds in the rough---they will transfer to where the bigger paycheck is after year one. Its going to shake out the same way any way you look at it. In the end---nobody wants to watch a 0-12 team get blown out 75-3 game after game year after year. If you arent in that top 5- to 10 teams in revenue---you wont have sports in a few years because you will lose so often that your revenue will dry up as your fan base withers. You'll need to be a top 20 in revenue to even hang around. Thats how the free market works. Amazon takes out Sears. One by one the other competitors go broke trying to compete and exit the market. If your want a full on no holds barred free market---thats what a free market looks like in a sports leagues with no caps or controls (cuz caps and controls violate antitrust laws). The big boys run the little boys out of the marketplace. The league gets smaller and smaller---slowly constricting the size of the interested audience. Its not really a business plan that makes college football a growing healthy expanding league.
Simply put---there is a reason no pro league does it that way. Pro leagues want their franchises to survive. They want their games to be competitive. Thats why there are contracts in pro leagues. Thats why there are salary caps in pro leagues. Thats why there are drafts in pro leagues with the worst teams picking first. Thats why applying wild west free agency pro concepts to college ball is like trying to use basketball rules in a hockey game.
This doesn't make much sense to me. First, your middle paragraph describing how things will sort out is highly speculative. We've already had two lawsuits filed against schools demanding that they pay players and both have so far lost in federal court. Second, it's not clear that a pay for play scheme would involve unlimited pay. We know it wouldn't because even without salary caps there is no unlimited pay merely because no employer has unlimited revenue. Third, and most importantly, NCAA football is ALREADY based on a model that doesn't allow everyone to compete at the same level. There is FBS, where you have to offer 85 scholarships and X number of sports, FCS which is 60 scholarships, and then D2, and D3, which offer no scholarships.
So there is already an entire array of options for schools that do not have the resources to compete at a given level. If your scenario does come to fruition, So What? Why should federal law be changed to preserve any school's ability to compete at a particular level of football? Whether the "top level" of football has 130 schools or 200 schools or 40 schools is of zero national concern. Why on earth should the Feds intervene merely because if market forces are unleashed that might mean that school X has to drop down from FBS to FCS? Or D2? Oh the Horror!
So now instead of protecting taxpayers as you said before, it seems like the real reason you want federal intervention is to preserve the ability of all the 130 current FBS members to continue to compete at that level. From a societal POV, that's a total Nothingburger issue. Whether San Diego State or Eastern Michigan fields an FBS, FCS, or D3 football team is of zero societal concern, just as it is of no societal concern that 200 or so schools currently field D3 teams.
Also, comparisons to NFL or NBA are poor because college football is not those kinds of leagues. FBS was never created as such, and in fact no pro league would ever allow new members to self-select themselves into the league merely by meeting the low-bar standards that the NCAA has for joining FBS. Imagine the NFL saying 'anyone can form a club football team, and if you can attract 20,000 fans for two years and then agree to pay 55 players a salary you automatically are in the NFL'. Crazy.
What? First off, to be clear, I’m not just making a tax payer argument—I’m making several arguments. I’m saying tax payers, fans, AND the vast majority of current scholarship athletes get hurt under complete free agency while only a handful of high value athletes and a few school programs survive. I’m also saying the long term prospects for the emerging fully free agent league are not good because it’s not constructed in a way that will provide an interesting compelling product and that it will lose most of its audience as the fans of all the other schools eliminated have little reason to watch anymore.
On the other hand, your position is that the antitrust laws are perfectly fine for this situation and should not change (as if we don’t amend and change laws every year when we find something needs a slight tweak). Furthermore, you and most everyone here believes that the players should have full unrestrained free agency and that the current NCAA scholarship model violates anti-trust law (I think the NCAA model probably does violate anti-trust law). Then suddenly in the post above, you switch positions entirely and say that the law doesn’t matter and that the schools that can’t spend enough to make a profit (which is almost everyone) can drop down to capped "scholarship only" divisions (compensation capped at scholarship) and "non-scholarship" divisions (compensation capped at zero). Both of these divisions would be capped models just like FBS and would violate antitrust laws. So how can they drop down to a division that won’t exist because the NCAA has been told by a court it’s illegal? I mean---if those "scholarship only" levels will exists---then whats this whole thing about? Ohio St, Texas, Penn St, Michigan have made it clear they dont want to pay players. Why cant they play in that "scholarship only" league you have suddenly made "legal" with a swipe of your magic hand?
Either it’s illegal or it’s not. Can’t have it both ways. I think your post is reflective of not having thought this through. It seems to me you are starting to come around to where I’m at that college football really doesn’t fit the traditional business model because there really isn’t any profit to be had. In fact—you have made several posts that show just how the vast majority of schools are losing money and that there really is no true profit motive. As a group, the 130 FBS schools lose a great deal of money on sports. Only a handful make any money at all—and other than a few exceptions, most schools that are making a “profit” are just slightly over break even (say within a million or two). All the lower level schools are losing money (some quite a bit). Thats the real reason there is no "competitor" to the NCAA. Yeah, the conferences have some nice TV deals, but the expenses required to produce the product far exceeds the revenue.
So, the public interest lies in this question—Is it better to destroy a system that has provided a free college education to tens of thousands of students over the years just so a few hundred kids can get paid in a league that likely fails in few years, or is there a better option that can be crafted to preserve all those scholarship opportunities—-but allow the kids to participate in some sort of revenue sharing while not gouging tax payers any more than we already are? The latter makes more sense to me—but will violate anti-trust law. That’s the way I see it at this point. So, you either destroy most of the opportunities and likely the sport in the long term by strictly following existing law—or you carve an exception (something you will frequently find in most any legislation passed these day) to make an existing model more fair to the student athletes (along with an oversight committee of congressmen to oversee and regulate college sports because the NCAA can’t be trusted on its own).
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2020 11:42 PM by Attackcoog.)
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