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2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #2661
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
If you're looking for moral character, Trump v. Hillary was pretty much a washout, and Trump v. Biden is little, if any, better.
06-30-2020 05:15 PM
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Post: #2662
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
Some of y'all have indicated that "climate change" is high on your list of priorities.

As a retired person staying at home for Covid reasons, I watch a lot of TV. Today my viewing took me to PBS and some programs on paleontology.

One of the scientists (AN EXPERT!!!) mentioned that the area where they were excavating was 600 feet under water at the time of the animals they were looking for.

600 FEET! HOLEY MOLEY!

I started thinking that had our environmentalist friends be around back then, they would have been panicking over the falling sea levels. maybe they would have taken measures to stop the falling sea levels. If so, we would not have the British Isles or New Zealand, or Japan or Manhattan.

But it also occurred to me that what they really want is not to save the world, but to save it as it is today. Not 20 years ago, not 2000 years ago, not 200,000 years ago, but now. Temperature up, temperature down, been there, done that. Sea level up, sea level down, been there done that. I guess all the angst we are having today over polar bears, we would have been having them for wooly mammoths.

You guys agonizing over a few millimeters of sea rise, Ok with me, but just don't advertise fighting it as saving the world. The world will do just fine without your help. Maybe men won't. Maybe man will go the way of the mammoth. But the Earth will still be here. For that matter, man has survived in some extreme environments. Lapland, Brazil, Easter Island,the Andes. Maybe it is just the Wall St. crowd that will pass. No great loss.
07-02-2020 06:30 PM
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Post: #2663
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(06-30-2020 02:11 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(06-29-2020 02:28 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(06-29-2020 02:25 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I think Donald Trump might have been the only republican who could have beaten Hillary in 2016. But now, after 3+ years of media hatchet jobs, his negatives have risen to the point that he might be the only republican who can lose to dementia sufferer Joe Biden.

And my personal opinion is that a democrat victory in November, particularly if accompanied by major wins in both houses of congress, is something that we have to prevent if at all possible. The democrat vision for the USA is full of multiple issue positions that I find to be absolute drop-dead show-stoppers. The damage that they would wreak on freedom, liberty, and the economy could be massive and irreversible. And as Ronald Reagan said, the USA is the last best hope of freedom and liberty, and if we lose it, it's gone forever everywhere.

That being said, I am beginning to wonder if it doesn't make sense for Donald Trump to decide that one term is enough, and for republicans to replace him as the presidential candidate with someone like Nikki Hailey. Mike Pence probably has limited appeal, but could certainly stay on the ticket as VP. But Hailey would potentially have much better appeal to women and people of color (being that she is both) and would certainly be able to use the limited capacity issue against Biden. Quite frankly, my first choice for VP would be Tim Scott, but you don't want two people from the same state on the ticket, unless you expect a runaway election.

I'm tired of Donald Trump, but I'm scared of Biden and the democrats.

Two people from the same state on the ticket for Prez and Veep is actually unconstitutional.

12th amendment: "The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves"

The phrasing has always struck me as interesting: it doesn't expressly prohibit the Pres and VP being from the same state, just that if they are, an elector in the Electoral College can't vote for both of them. In theory, the Pres and VP nominees are from state A, they could still be elected if:
- State A's electors decide to cast as least one of their votes (e.g. for VP) for some random person from another state. This would seem pretty easy to orchestrate.
- State A's electors abstain in the Pres or VP vote. (Are electors constitutionally required to vote? Article I section 2 says "the
Electors shall...vote for two persons", but it's not clear what the remedy would be if a few of them didn't.)
- (rather absurdly) State A has completely abolished the right to vote and thus, under section 3 of the 14th Amendment, is not entitled to any electors.

Doesn't this all simply go back to the beginning where the presidential candidate who came in second became the vice president (1788 / 1792 / 1796)? The last thing anyone wanted back then was an executive branch wholely elected from a single state so they made it unconstitutional.

(The 1800 election was the first where parties had a presidential ticket that included a vice president.)
07-03-2020 06:02 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #2664
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-02-2020 06:30 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Maybe it is just the Wall St. crowd that will pass. No great loss.

Wouldn't that be a case of addition by subtraction?
07-03-2020 06:24 AM
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Post: #2665
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-03-2020 06:24 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(07-02-2020 06:30 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Maybe it is just the Wall St. crowd that will pass. No great loss.

Wouldn't that be a case of addition by subtraction?

It sure would hurt Democratic fundraising.
07-03-2020 08:48 AM
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Post: #2666
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-02-2020 06:30 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Some of y'all have indicated that "climate change" is high on your list of priorities.

As a retired person staying at home for Covid reasons, I watch a lot of TV. Today my viewing took me to PBS and some programs on paleontology.

One of the scientists (AN EXPERT!!!) mentioned that the area where they were excavating was 600 feet under water at the time of the animals they were looking for.

600 FEET! HOLEY MOLEY!

I started thinking that had our environmentalist friends be around back then, they would have been panicking over the falling sea levels. maybe they would have taken measures to stop the falling sea levels. If so, we would not have the British Isles or New Zealand, or Japan or Manhattan.

But it also occurred to me that what they really want is not to save the world, but to save it as it is today. Not 20 years ago, not 2000 years ago, not 200,000 years ago, but now. Temperature up, temperature down, been there, done that. Sea level up, sea level down, been there done that. I guess all the angst we are having today over polar bears, we would have been having them for wooly mammoths.

You guys agonizing over a few millimeters of sea rise, Ok with me, but just don't advertise fighting it as saving the world. The world will do just fine without your help. Maybe men won't. Maybe man will go the way of the mammoth. But the Earth will still be here. For that matter, man has survived in some extreme environments. Lapland, Brazil, Easter Island,the Andes. Maybe it is just the Wall St. crowd that will pass. No great loss.

I get this mental image of a liberal in hs PJ's sipping some chai tea and saying " I don't care what that idiot conservative says about the history of the Earth, I am worried that the sea level around here will rise 5 centimeters and so I will continue to vote for candidates who will promise to abate 40% of that rise (2 cm.) by taxing the bejeezus out of rich white people."
07-03-2020 08:53 AM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #2667
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-03-2020 06:02 AM)MerseyOwl Wrote:  
(06-30-2020 02:11 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(06-29-2020 02:28 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(06-29-2020 02:25 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I think Donald Trump might have been the only republican who could have beaten Hillary in 2016. But now, after 3+ years of media hatchet jobs, his negatives have risen to the point that he might be the only republican who can lose to dementia sufferer Joe Biden.

And my personal opinion is that a democrat victory in November, particularly if accompanied by major wins in both houses of congress, is something that we have to prevent if at all possible. The democrat vision for the USA is full of multiple issue positions that I find to be absolute drop-dead show-stoppers. The damage that they would wreak on freedom, liberty, and the economy could be massive and irreversible. And as Ronald Reagan said, the USA is the last best hope of freedom and liberty, and if we lose it, it's gone forever everywhere.

That being said, I am beginning to wonder if it doesn't make sense for Donald Trump to decide that one term is enough, and for republicans to replace him as the presidential candidate with someone like Nikki Hailey. Mike Pence probably has limited appeal, but could certainly stay on the ticket as VP. But Hailey would potentially have much better appeal to women and people of color (being that she is both) and would certainly be able to use the limited capacity issue against Biden. Quite frankly, my first choice for VP would be Tim Scott, but you don't want two people from the same state on the ticket, unless you expect a runaway election.

I'm tired of Donald Trump, but I'm scared of Biden and the democrats.

Two people from the same state on the ticket for Prez and Veep is actually unconstitutional.

12th amendment: "The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves"

The phrasing has always struck me as interesting: it doesn't expressly prohibit the Pres and VP being from the same state, just that if they are, an elector in the Electoral College can't vote for both of them. In theory, the Pres and VP nominees are from state A, they could still be elected if:
- State A's electors decide to cast as least one of their votes (e.g. for VP) for some random person from another state. This would seem pretty easy to orchestrate.
- State A's electors abstain in the Pres or VP vote. (Are electors constitutionally required to vote? Article I section 2 says "the
Electors shall...vote for two persons", but it's not clear what the remedy would be if a few of them didn't.)
- (rather absurdly) State A has completely abolished the right to vote and thus, under section 3 of the 14th Amendment, is not entitled to any electors.

Doesn't this all simply go back to the beginning where the presidential candidate who came in second became the vice president (1788 / 1792 / 1796)? The last thing anyone wanted back then was an executive branch wholely elected from a single state so they made it unconstitutional.

(The 1800 election was the first where parties had a presidential ticket that included a vice president.)

Yes, that's generally correct. Electors were required to cast two votes each for president (so that electors wouldn't all just vote for a single person from their state) and one had to be not from that elector's state, so as to avoid voting for two "favorite sons" in an attempt to have both the president and VP (second-place finisher) be from the same state.
07-03-2020 11:37 AM
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tanqtonic Online
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Post: #2668
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
I saw this earlier in a feed, but was not anywhere I could post. I'll try to supplement with a link.

There is a study that correlates a VP pick with amount of 'edits' to the Wikipedia page of an individual in the 120 days prior to a convention. Using that barometer, the method would have correctly picked all of: Kaine (2016), Pence (2016), Gephardt (2012), Palin (2008), and Edwards (2004).

Currently, the leader of the pack for 'scrubbing purposes' is Harris. And apparently the efforts are quite widespread and deep in the efforts to omit *any* negative points in the entry, *and* the insertion of positive points.

At one point one of the community editors complained that the person who is doing the most of these must be using a database of any and all of Kamala media points, since the offering edits seemingly on a massive basis *only* refer or cite these sources -- to the tune of close to 500 of them.

Also, even negative points (i.e. statements supporting strong law enforcement) which are sourced by multiple news media are in a constant state of flux -- that is sock puppet editors taking them down in very short order after they were reinstated by another editor in response to an earlier takedown.

I dont think 'encyclopedia by interested parties' seemingly works very well for the straight dissemination of raw knowledge and information. Especially in an area that is a political 'hotbed'. I would posit the wikipedia entry on a politically neutral subject such as, say, 'aardvark', has even 1/100 of the 'editorial' volcano of activity that Kamala's site currently is.
07-05-2020 08:40 PM
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tanqtonic Online
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Post: #2669
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
As an aside ---

who here will miss the filibuster when it gets nuked?

I know I will.
07-05-2020 08:49 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #2670
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-05-2020 08:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  As an aside ---
who here will miss the filibuster when it gets nuked?
I know I will.

I will.

This will pretty much complete the process started with the 17th Amendment to eliminate the purpose for which the Senate was originally created.
07-05-2020 08:59 PM
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Post: #2671
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-05-2020 08:40 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Gephardt (2012)

Paul Ryan?

That's an interesting study though...I'd have to say it will be correct in 2020. No way Biden does not pick a racial minority as VP and I think it will come down to Harris and Duckworth, Grisham or Bottoms.

Edit: I am more interested in who Kanye West's VP will be. Kanye/Trump/Biden debates would be the must-see TV of the year, if not the decade.
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2020 09:02 PM by westsidewolf1989.)
07-05-2020 09:01 PM
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Post: #2672
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-05-2020 09:01 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 08:40 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Gephardt (2012)

Paul Ryan?

That's an interesting study though...I'd have to say it will be correct in 2020. No way Biden does not pick a racial minority as VP and I think it will come down to Harris and Duckworth, Grisham or Bottoms.

Edit: I am more interested in who Kanye West's VP will be. Kanye/Trump/Biden debates would be the must-see TV of the year, if not the decade.

Yep, my bad..... serious brain fart there. Maybe I breathed down too much cement dust today.

On the second --- the entertainment value of the sheer number of random paths any question would generate is just amazingly appetizing for this sicko here.

I mean, on one side you would see random jaunts into the 'best, most effective Presidential action in the history of the universe' stuff, coupled with Biden's original 'slow' operating with pre-dementia --- this could be better than *any* BBC comedy *ever* dreamed up.

Almost like the answer to the question: what happens when you mix 'Shameless' with a political campaign?

I would pay to see Trump/Biden debate.

Actually, come to think of it and with respect to ausowl, I will pay to see that debate.
07-05-2020 09:18 PM
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Post: #2673
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-05-2020 08:59 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 08:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  As an aside ---
who here will miss the filibuster when it gets nuked?
I know I will.

I will.

This will pretty much complete the process started with the 17th Amendment to eliminate the purpose for which the Senate was originally created.

On a related note -- I have a great solution to the continued (unconstitutional) cry for DC statehood. Remit all the voters in the District to be able to vote in the Maryland Federal elections. And remove DCs 3 electoral votes.

Somehow I doubt that would appease the Democrats. Even though there plaintive cry is 'the voters need to have representation'
07-05-2020 09:22 PM
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Post: #2674
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
If the goal is Congressional representation for DC residents, the cognizable solution is to make Washington part of either the State of Maryland or the Commonwealth of Virginia.

On its own, the District is entirely the creature, ward, and handmaid of the Federal government. Giving it statehood makes a mockery of the concept of sovereignty and of legal equality between the states, and essentially gives the Federal establishment its own Congressional delegation. It makes as much sense as the UN Secretariat having a seat in the General Assembly and being eligible to serve on the Security Council.

In short, it makes far more sense to eliminate the District as a political entity than to make it one of the United States.
07-05-2020 09:57 PM
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Post: #2675
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-05-2020 09:22 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 08:59 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 08:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  As an aside ---
who here will miss the filibuster when it gets nuked?
I know I will.

I will.

This will pretty much complete the process started with the 17th Amendment to eliminate the purpose for which the Senate was originally created.

On a related note -- I have a great solution to the continued (unconstitutional) cry for DC statehood. Remit all the voters in the District to be able to vote in the Maryland Federal elections. And remove DCs 3 electoral votes.

Somehow I doubt that would appease the Democrats. Even though there plaintive cry is 'the voters need to have representation'

Of course it will not appease the Dems, since representation is not their goal. Two more Senators is the goal
07-05-2020 10:18 PM
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Post: #2676
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-05-2020 08:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  As an aside ---

who here will miss the filibuster when it gets nuked?

I know I will.

I think it needs reforming as it is overused as a threat but it is pretty rare senators have to actually filibuster. I'd be more OK with it if filibustering senators actually had to sit there and talk for hours (and stay germane). Also, I don't think the filibuster should exist for judicial appointments but I think there should be a 60-vote threshold for "advice and consent" and I don't think the filibuster should exist for cabinet appointments (not sure about the 60-vote threshold for those).
07-06-2020 02:09 AM
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Post: #2677
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-05-2020 09:57 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  On its own, the District is entirely the creature, ward, and handmaid of the Federal government. Giving it statehood makes a mockery of the concept of sovereignty and of legal equality between the states, and essentially gives the Federal establishment its own Congressional delegation.

What percent of DC residents actually work for the federal government?
07-06-2020 02:11 AM
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Post: #2678
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-06-2020 02:09 AM)mrbig Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 08:49 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  As an aside ---

who here will miss the filibuster when it gets nuked?

I know I will.

I think it needs reforming as it is overused as a threat but it is pretty rare senators have to actually filibuster. I'd be more OK with it if filibustering senators actually had to sit there and talk for hours (and stay germane). Also, I don't think the filibuster should exist for judicial appointments but I think there should be a 60-vote threshold for "advice and consent" and I don't think the filibuster should exist for cabinet appointments (not sure about the 60-vote threshold for those).

I think it is a wonderful system as a moderation device. In that respect the idea of 60 votes to advance cloture is very good thing. In short, I am all aboard with it as a political tool, even without the requirement of speaking.

On the advice and consent (treaties) isnt there already a 2/3 majority final vote requirement in the Constitution? That is, when you dont have a shitbird administration paint that pig as an Executive Action to avoid any vote.....

And I actually initially misinterpreted your ending statement above I think. Is this what you are in favor of:

for judicial appointments a cloture vote should be majority vote, final vote should be 60;

for cabinet appointments a cloture should be majority and you are unsure about a tally for a final vote (between majority and 60).

Did I get that correctly? If so, I would disagree not in the concept but implementation.

I would reserve the judicial 60 vote threshold for Supreme Court. I think we have seen historically how the 60 votes can be used not in good faith, but as simply dilatory tactics -- that is not necessarily good for the effective administration of justice which requires 'front line troops' on a continual basis.
(This post was last modified: 07-06-2020 07:30 AM by tanqtonic.)
07-06-2020 07:29 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #2679
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-06-2020 02:11 AM)mrbig Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 09:57 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  On its own, the District is entirely the creature, ward, and handmaid of the Federal government. Giving it statehood makes a mockery of the concept of sovereignty and of legal equality between the states, and essentially gives the Federal establishment its own Congressional delegation.
What percent of DC residents actually work for the federal government?

What percent are not totally or nearly totally upon the federal government for their livelihood? Obviously, lobbyists and government contractors. Arguably, since most people with money choose to live outside DC, the number of those residing in the district is probably low. But it you own a barber shop in DC, you probably depend upon the government for your clientele.
07-06-2020 08:02 AM
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Post: #2680
RE: 2020 Presidential Horse Race Thread
(07-06-2020 02:11 AM)mrbig Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 09:57 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  On its own, the District is entirely the creature, ward, and handmaid of the Federal government. Giving it statehood makes a mockery of the concept of sovereignty and of legal equality between the states, and essentially gives the Federal establishment its own Congressional delegation.

What percent of DC residents actually work for the federal government?

Less than 100%, but categorically more than in any state. And of course it's not just direct employees; it's all the contractors, vendors, camp followers, lobbyists and so on whose existence depends on serving, selling to, influencing, giving favors to or drawing favors from the Federal establishment. Less quantifiably but not less significantly, DC's growth depends on the Federal government's growth; its prestige is the Federal government's prestige. There is no other state that is anywhere near as beholden to a single economic entity as DC is to the US government -- and that unique patron is not just any entity, but the very entity with respect to which states are supposed to be sovereign. Every new Federal agency, every increase in Federal spending, every expansion of Federal power benefits DC in a way that no other state can even contemplate. Conversely every contraction of the Federal sphere hurts the District; it would be a state that is institutionally opposed to the interests of states.

In sum, the District should not be treated as a state legally because it is not and cannot be a state substantively.

By FAR, the less problematic solution is to fold the region back into Maryland -- just as the trans-Potomac part of it was folded back into Virginia a couple of centuries ago. This solution should not even be controversial -- unless of course the real motive is naked partisan advantage in Congress (I would be shocked, shocked...)
07-06-2020 08:38 AM
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