(11-15-2018 03:49 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: (11-14-2018 12:41 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: Canada has its regional disparities, but its far more resilient than you might think. Even the Quebec Libre movement has largely abated. Alberta isn't as conservative as you think (heck, they even have a NDP government right now - an odd and probably temporary election result - but still).
And Canadians actually are proud of their country and like being Canadian. They might not like their health care system, but they are terrified of the impact of being part of the US one. They operate more on consensus than Americans do and they like that.
They are also, proud globalists. And they have more immigration than we do. And they don't particularly have that big of a problem with it.
From a political perspective, the end of Canada would be a disaster for the conservative movement in the USA, especially if Canada just joined the US. Newfoundland, British Columbia, Ontario (in a 50% system - rather than a first past the post with one moderately conservative party and a liberal party and a leftist party - Ontario would be very liberal), New Brunswick, PEI, Nova Scotia, and PEI would be strong Democratic bastions. Quebec is a strange bird. Economically, they're quite far to the left, but they tend to be more xenophobic than other Canadians, but I suspect they'd be liberal - fearing the English only people on the right wing in the USA. Manitoba looks more like Minnesota politically than North Dakota. Alberta and Saskatchewan....okay they'd be open to a Republican government, but that's about it and they can't stand on their own. The Arctic - liberal.
From the top:
- Quebec Libre is quiet right now because the citizens of Ontario (and increasingly the citizens of Alberta) are paying for them to stay in. You'd shut up too if you were literally being bribed every month with millions of Canadian rubles.
- Alberta has NDP majority because in provinces there are no regular elections. They are simply called for whenever the party in charge wants one. So they called for their last one while the Wild Rose party was holding its own internal leadership election. The NDP still lost seats heavily. The next election they call for will be their last as a majority ... so they'll not call for one as long as possible. How "Democratic" of our Canadian neighbors ... the government can simply tell you that you're not allowed to have an election if they don't like the outcome.
- At least you admit that they don't like their single payer system ... that puts you ahead of most of your political compatriots who think that Canada has a love affair with their rationed care and long waiting lines for low quality service. But hey, America is cashing in on that one. Canadians all over purchase private insurance that is recognized in America so if they actually become seriously ill they'll become medical tourists in the US to receive immediate high quality care. What a concept -- responsible behavior and financial planning to look after yourself medically. Pretty much the exact opposite of the Democrat Party platform.
- They have more immigration because they HAVE TO to try to desperately pay all the bills. The Canadians have had a baby bust. So while the Canadian government's own projections show that by 2050 some provinces will be paying 80% of gross tax receipts on single payer healthcare, they'll simultaneously not have enough young people working to pay for the pensions of retirees. The only way you can fix that is taking on any immigrant who will come to try to restock the younger demographic. This isn't some WOOO WE LOVE IMMIGRATION fest ... it's a last ditch effort to stay afloat financially.
- You assume Canada would just be annexed in whole outright. That's not necessarily the case. Just annexing Alberta as the 51st state is the death knell of Canada as a country. The US could pick and choose which provinces it wants to let in. And it's not even necessarily a one way street. As hard economic reality sets in north of the border you'd find political attitudes would change quickly in some areas as well.
- You say SK and Alberta can't stand on their own. To the contrary. Without their oil money Canada can't stand as a nation. Single payer would go bankrupt overnight. The transfer payments to Quebec to stay in the union would stop. The pension system would go under. And this is despite the fact that Canada gets a free ride on defense by simply being our neighbor. And Canada shows its appreciation for the people of Alberta being fleeced to the tune of over $5,000/yr for every person in the province .... but refusing to let them build a pipeline. It's the kind of gross incompetence you'd expect from a government led by a well coiffed bobblehead with no knowledge, no meaningful experience, and no policy beyond virtue signaling.
I worked in Alberta for years. I was there when Notley took over as Primier (the original NDP election win - which seemed to me more of a revolt against a truly overheated economy that didn't work for most people there - lots of Ferraris on 16th but lots of people struggling with high housing costs too). I'm still paying takes in Alberta.
About the 2015 elections. The NDP didn't call the elections, the Tories did. And the NDP win was a shock. It was like everyone about 3 weeks before the election, said "screw this, I'm voting NDP. I"m tired of the Tories and I'm tired of the crowding out in our economy". By the way, in 2017 Wildrose and the Tories merged to form the United Conservative Party on a Provincial level. They'll likely take over at the next general election.
Alberta and Saskatchewan represent 18.3 percent of the Canadian economy. And the excess export value from AB and SK is only 55 billion CAD based upon 2017 figures from Statistics Canada.
But, I think you overstate the desire of Albertans and Saskatchewanites to leave, and more importantly, to join the USA.
A significant percentage, if not a majority of Albertans were born somewhere else in CANADA or overseas. They're Canadian, they love their country, and they don't want to be American. Even the Wild Rose folks.
Alberta is also a lot less nativist than you might think. The second most 'immigrant' major Canadian city...is Calgary. Edmonton isn't far behind (and it has ALWAYS been very liberal - even when Alberta was voting for Stockwell Day or Preston Manning). Alberta's oil industry runs on foreign workers. By the way, Calgary's mayor is a Muslim. In a Canadian context, it might look conservative. But to me, it feels a LOT like Minneapolis.
You're also deluding yourself if you think that even Albertans are as right wing as you think they are. Harper would be a Democrat in the USA. Also, Canada actually has a government that is usually far to the RIGHT of its populace because there is usually 1 major right of center party (the Tories) and 2 major left of center parties (the NDP and the Liberals). In a 2 party system, I doubt that many NDP or Liberal voters are going to be Republicans.
And while it was true, during the 90s and before Alberta was very Conservative, its not like that anymore. And you can't simply use Canadian political parties as proxies for US ones. Wild Rose is a complicated party if viewed from an American perspective. If you're looking for a closer nativist/Donald Trump/anti-Globalist proxy in Canada....I'd pick Ford in Ontario (who won there - but he's still not a full on Republican/Trumpian nativist either - and he only 'won' with 40 percent of the vote - and Ontario is still going to vote LIberal in the next Federal election)
Its true, I'm less familiar with SK (I only had one client there and rarely had to go onsite), but SK is TINY economically.