The unofficial online home for fans of the Old Dominion University Monarchs. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

There is a 100% chance that I will be at the game on Thursday night. Hope we take the W.

(02-13-2018 10:47 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 09:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

You'd have to factor in a greater than 50% chance of beating them individually to get to a 30% probability of beating them both.

If we have a 40% chance of winning each game individually, the mathematical probability of winning them both is 16%. Increase to 45% and it is 20.25%. Increase to 50% and it is 25%. Increase to 55% and it is 30.25%.

More realistically, if we have a 50% of beating WKU and a 40% chance of beating MTSU individually, the chance of beating them both is 20%. I think that is closer to accurate.

But that will go up because other teams have an opportunity to beat them.

There is a greater probability today that someone beats us in the quarters than someone beating WKU or MTSU, based on the fact that we would be the 3 seed and more likely to face a stronger opponent like in that round. Our odds would improve if we finish with the 1 or 2 seed.

Let me be clear, I subjectively think this team has the talent and a very good chance, maybe even 50% of winning this tournament, particularly if we can stay out of foul trouble and continue to hit 3s at a higher rate as we did against USM and LT. I just can't come to grips with a fully objective mathematical probability at 30%. Seems impossible being the #3 team out of 12 when we have lost to #1 and #2 at home.

(02-13-2018 11:19 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:47 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 09:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

You'd have to factor in a greater than 50% chance of beating them individually to get to a 30% probability of beating them both.

If we have a 40% chance of winning each game individually, the mathematical probability of winning them both is 16%. Increase to 45% and it is 20.25%. Increase to 50% and it is 25%. Increase to 55% and it is 30.25%.

More realistically, if we have a 50% of beating WKU and a 40% chance of beating MTSU individually, the chance of beating them both is 20%. I think that is closer to accurate.

But that will go up because other teams have an opportunity to beat them.

There is a greater probability today that someone beats us in the quarters than someone beating WKU or MTSU, based on the fact that we would be the 3 seed and more likely to face a stronger opponent like in that round. Our odds would improve if we finish with the 1 or 2 seed.

Let me be clear, I subjectively think this team has the talent and a very good chance, maybe even 50% of winning this tournament, particularly if we can stay out of foul trouble and continue to hit 3s at a higher rate as we did against USM and LT. I just can't come to grips with a fully objective mathematical probability at 30%. Seems impossible being the #3 team out of 12 when we have lost to #1 and #2 at home.

This is per TeamRankings.com.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/confere...a-bracket/

What a jump from last year.

This year Kenpom:
Off: 91
Def: 47

Last year Kenpom:
Off: 247
Def: 51

We are so much better than last year. It's not even close.

Edit: We are the number 1 offense and the number 3 defense, in CUSA.

(02-13-2018 11:28 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 11:19 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:47 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 09:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

You'd have to factor in a greater than 50% chance of beating them individually to get to a 30% probability of beating them both.

If we have a 40% chance of winning each game individually, the mathematical probability of winning them both is 16%. Increase to 45% and it is 20.25%. Increase to 50% and it is 25%. Increase to 55% and it is 30.25%.

More realistically, if we have a 50% of beating WKU and a 40% chance of beating MTSU individually, the chance of beating them both is 20%. I think that is closer to accurate.

But that will go up because other teams have an opportunity to beat them.

There is a greater probability today that someone beats us in the quarters than someone beating WKU or MTSU, based on the fact that we would be the 3 seed and more likely to face a stronger opponent like in that round. Our odds would improve if we finish with the 1 or 2 seed.

Let me be clear, I subjectively think this team has the talent and a very good chance, maybe even 50% of winning this tournament, particularly if we can stay out of foul trouble and continue to hit 3s at a higher rate as we did against USM and LT. I just can't come to grips with a fully objective mathematical probability at 30%. Seems impossible being the #3 team out of 12 when we have lost to #1 and #2 at home.

PHP Code:

Seed    Team    Quarter    Semi    Champ    Win
1.2    Middle Tenn    100.00%    79.74%    60.15%    37.36%
2.3    Old Dominion    99.99%    75.80%    45.59%    24.54%
2.6    W Kentucky    99.85%    72.39%    37.81%    18.79%
6.9    UAB    75.83%    29.69%    13.39%    5.39%
7.5    LA Tech    74.44%    27.30%    12.93%    5.18%
5.0    Marshall    84.24%    43.93%    13.85%    4.81%
5.9    TX-San Ant    69.57%    24.80%    6.39%    1.74%
5.6    North Texas    71.21%    24.90%    5.68%    1.41%
9.0    S Mississippi    36.88%    5.74%    1.50%    0.30%
10.6    Fla Atlantic    30.31%    4.77%    0.92%    0.17%
11.7    TX El Paso    16.24%    4.78%    0.78%    0.15%
9.6    Florida Intl    28.17%    3.39%    0.71%    0.12%
11.7    Rice    9.58%    1.95%    0.21%    0.03%
11.8    Charlotte    3.68%    0.84%    0.09%    0.01% 


This is per TeamRankings.com.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/confere...a-bracket/

That makes better sense, though I am surprised by the placement of WKU over us given their better computer numbers and the head to head at the Ted. Also, someone has to get the 4 seed and whoever does will have a vastly improved overall probability as the quarterfinal will be 100%.

(02-13-2018 11:33 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 11:28 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 11:19 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:47 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 09:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  You'd have to factor in a greater than 50% chance of beating them individually to get to a 30% probability of beating them both.

If we have a 40% chance of winning each game individually, the mathematical probability of winning them both is 16%. Increase to 45% and it is 20.25%. Increase to 50% and it is 25%. Increase to 55% and it is 30.25%.

More realistically, if we have a 50% of beating WKU and a 40% chance of beating MTSU individually, the chance of beating them both is 20%. I think that is closer to accurate.

But that will go up because other teams have an opportunity to beat them.

There is a greater probability today that someone beats us in the quarters than someone beating WKU or MTSU, based on the fact that we would be the 3 seed and more likely to face a stronger opponent like in that round. Our odds would improve if we finish with the 1 or 2 seed.

Let me be clear, I subjectively think this team has the talent and a very good chance, maybe even 50% of winning this tournament, particularly if we can stay out of foul trouble and continue to hit 3s at a higher rate as we did against USM and LT. I just can't come to grips with a fully objective mathematical probability at 30%. Seems impossible being the #3 team out of 12 when we have lost to #1 and #2 at home.

PHP Code:

Seed    Team    Quarter    Semi    Champ    Win
1.2    Middle Tenn    100.00%    79.74%    60.15%    37.36%
2.3    Old Dominion    99.99%    75.80%    45.59%    24.54%
2.6    W Kentucky    99.85%    72.39%    37.81%    18.79%
6.9    UAB    75.83%    29.69%    13.39%    5.39%
7.5    LA Tech    74.44%    27.30%    12.93%    5.18%
5.0    Marshall    84.24%    43.93%    13.85%    4.81%
5.9    TX-San Ant    69.57%    24.80%    6.39%    1.74%
5.6    North Texas    71.21%    24.90%    5.68%    1.41%
9.0    S Mississippi    36.88%    5.74%    1.50%    0.30%
10.6    Fla Atlantic    30.31%    4.77%    0.92%    0.17%
11.7    TX El Paso    16.24%    4.78%    0.78%    0.15%
9.6    Florida Intl    28.17%    3.39%    0.71%    0.12%
11.7    Rice    9.58%    1.95%    0.21%    0.03%
11.8    Charlotte    3.68%    0.84%    0.09%    0.01% 


This is per TeamRankings.com.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/confere...a-bracket/

That makes better sense, though I am surprised by the placement of WKU over us given their better computer numbers and the head to head at the Ted. Also, someone has to get the 4 seed and whoever does will have a vastly improved overall probability as the quarterfinal will be 100%.

The equation includes Stansbury's coaching.

Per their site:

Quote:A team's relative odds to win the 2018 C-USA Championship depend only partly on their CUSA bracket seed. Winning the C-USA Championship also depends on the dynamics of the 2018 CUSA bracket. In some cases, the team with a better C-USA Championship seed may actually face a harder path to the C-USA Championship championship than a team with a worse CUSA tournament seed.

In addition, because CUSA tournament seeds are based on win-loss records in CUSA conference games, CUSA tournament seeds are not always the most accurate measure of a team's true performance level. This is another reason why higher seeded teams in the CUSA bracket can have better odds to win the 2018 C-USA Championship than lower seeded teams in the CUSA bracket.