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Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
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CougarRed Offline
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Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/medi...uality-win

For the past several years, team sheets have divided results into four columns: results against the top 50 teams in the NCAA’s Rating Percentage Index; 51-100; 101-200; and any team ranked 201 or lower. Effective with the 2017-18 season, team sheets will place greater emphasis on where the games are played rather than the ranking of each opponent.

There still will be four separate columns, with the first column consisting of home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked in the top 50 and road games against opponents ranked in the top 75. The second column will include home games against teams ranked 31-75, neutral-site games versus teams ranked 51-100 and road games against teams ranked 76-135.

The third column will consist of home games played against competition ranked 76-160, games played on a neutral court versus teams ranked 101-200 and games on the road against teams ranked 136-240. The fourth column will include home games against teams ranked 161-351, neutral-site games played against teams ranked 201-351 and road games versus opponents ranked 241-351.

“We consulted with experts within the coaching and analytics fields who looked at historical data, based on winning percentages by game location, to come up with these dividing lines within each of the columns,” said Mark Hollis, the director of athletics at Michigan State and the current chair of the committee. “The emphasis of performing well on the road is important, as was the need for teams not to be penalized as much for road losses. Beating elite competition, regardless of the game location, will still be rewarded, but the committee wanted the team sheets to reflect that a road game against a team ranked 60th is mathematically more difficult and of higher quality than a home game versus a team ranked 35th. We feel this change accomplishes that.”
07-15-2017 08:17 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
Those rankings 1-30, etc. are based on RPI. But the committee is looking at going towards a composite ranking:

“There was a consensus among those involved that a composite rating was a better indicator than the RPI alone, but everyone also agreed that it isn’t mathematically sound to combine metrics that are results-oriented with those that are predictive in nature,” said Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice president of basketball. “The committee decided to use the upcoming season to study how different composite rankings would perform, and explore other options, as well. The bottom line is we recognize the need to continue using more modern metrics and the need to make those more front and center in the sorting of data for the selection and seeding process. However, it’s also critical to have a long-term solution that is tested in real time, so we can roll something out that we have complete confidence in, is mathematically sound and is acceptable in every stakeholder’s eyes.”
07-15-2017 08:19 AM
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Hurricane Drummer Offline
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
So if ECU upsets one of us at their place it won't kill our RPI as bad? That's nice.
07-15-2017 08:26 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
Ken Pomeroy started pushing for this 18 months ago.

http://kenpom.com/blog/tiers-of-joy/

In 2017, Pomeroy used 27/50/82 for Top 50 equivalent wins home/neutral/away.

The NCAA did not go quite that far, at 30/50/75. But it's a helluva lot more realistic than 50/50/50.

For Top 100 equivalent wins home/neutral/away, Pomeroy use 63/100/135 in 2017 while the NCAA will use 75/100/135.

***************

Clearly, the new rules mean Top 30, Top 75 and Top 135 become huge lines of demarcation. Sucks to be ranked 31, 76 or 136. We need as many teams in those groupings as possible to maximize our quality wins/games.
(This post was last modified: 07-15-2017 09:09 AM by CougarRed.)
07-15-2017 08:55 AM
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justinhub2003 Offline
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
I wish these rules would come out BEFORE most teams non conference schedules were already complete.

That said, UC has plenty of opportunity to get good seeding.

We play 3 top 15 games in the non conference:
@ucla
@xavier
Florida (neutral)

Then add on @wichita state, @houston, @temple, @uconn and @UCF
07-16-2017 05:18 PM
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Shocker2013 Offline
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
So you mean to tell me we moved to this fake a** p6 conference for nothing? ?
07-16-2017 05:27 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
(07-16-2017 05:27 PM)Shocker2013 Wrote:  So you mean to tell me we moved to this fake a** p6 conference for nothing? ?

Based on this:

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_303_Men.html

The new rules mean that last year's Wichita team went from:

Top 50 Equivalent
2-4 under the old rules to 2-3.

51-100 Equivalent
1-0 under the old rules to 1-1.

Top 100 overall
3-4 to 3-4

In other words, it did not help.

Houston, however, would have been helped significantly.

Top 50 Equivalent
2-5 under the old rules to 1-6.

51-100 Equivalent
1-1 under the old rules to 5-1.

Top 100 overall
3-6 to 6-7

Same for SMU:

Top 50 Equivalent
2-3 under the old rules to 4-4.

51-100 Equivalent
8-1 under the old rules to 9-0.

Top 100 overall
10-4 to 13-4
07-16-2017 07:42 PM
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vick mike Offline
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
This is clearly designed to boost the chances for B10, SEC, B12, PAC and ACC teams and lower the chances on everyone else. It may hurt me to have Nova win an NC, but I want to beat them on the court, not by fudging numbers the way these big conference a$$ hats do.
07-16-2017 07:56 PM
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ultraviolet Offline
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
(07-16-2017 05:27 PM)Shocker2013 Wrote:  So you mean to tell me we moved to this fake a** p6 conference for nothing? ?

Exactly. You're doomed.
07-17-2017 09:48 AM
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ECUGrad07 Online
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
(07-15-2017 08:26 AM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  So WHEN ECU upsets one of us at their place it won't kill our RPI as bad? That's nice.

Fixed it for you.
07-17-2017 10:10 AM
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Wudizzle Offline
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RE: Basketball Selection Committee redefines quality win
(07-15-2017 08:26 AM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  So if ECU upsets one of us at their place it won't kill our RPI as bad? That's nice.

No. That's not how the RPI works. The NCAA's announcement does nothing to change how RPI is calculated. Losing @ECU will still torpedo your RPI as much as previous years. What we've learned is that when it comes to NCAA at-large bids, your own RPI is pretty much worthless anyway. All they have cared about recently is the RPI of some of your opponents.

What is different is where the NCAA selection committee is drawing lines for the team sheets. Think of the team sheets as having your record against teams in 4 categories: Great, Good, Meh, SWAC-alicious. The NCAA is changing the bucket for 'Great' from any and all Top 50 RPI opponents to "home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked in the top 50 and road games against opponents ranked in the top 75."

NCAA Selection Committee Team Sheet Example:
http://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/f..._guide.png
(This post was last modified: 07-17-2017 10:58 AM by Wudizzle.)
07-17-2017 10:52 AM
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