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The end game for FBS realignment - ken d - 09-23-2024 04:28 PM
In my new (and imaginary) role as College Football Czar, I have decided that we must have some relief from the constant speculation about what schools are going where. So I have established the following conference alignment, and hereby decree that there will be no further changes to the Top FBS Tier for at least the next ten years. These are the conferences and divisions in Tier One (80 teams). After each school, I have listed their protected annual rivalry games, some within the conference and others OOC. Each school (other than Notre Dame) may have no more than two protected rivalry games.
SEC (20)............Rivals
Alabama..........Tennessee
LSU
Auburn............Georgia
Mississippi St
Ole Miss
Georgia...........Auburn, Georgia Tech
Florida............Florida State
Tennessee.......Alabama
Kentucky.........Louisville
Vanderbilt
Clemson
Florida State....Florida, Miami
South Carolina
UNC................Duke, NC State
Virginia...........Virginia Tech, Duke
Oklahoma.......Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Texas
Missouri..........Kansas
Arkansas
B1G (20)............Rivals
Ohio State.......Michigan
Penn State
Pitt.................West Virginia
Maryland
Rutgers
Michigan..........Ohio State
Michigan St
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa...............Iowa State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Oregon...........Oregon State
Washington.....Washington St
USC...............Notre Dame
Stanford.........California, Notre Dame
UCLA..............California
Big 12 (16).......Rivals
Oklahoma St....Oklahoma
TCU................SMU
Kansas St
Baylor
Texas Tech
Iowa State.......Iowa
Houston..........SMU
Kansas............Missouri
Utah...............Utah State
Arizona St
Memphis
BYU
Arizona
California........Stanford, UCLA
Colorado.........Colorado State
SMU...............TCU, Houston
ACC (14)..........Rivals
Louisville..........Kentucky
West Virginia....Pitt
UCF
Cincinnati
Boston College
Syracuse
USF
Miami..............Florida State
Virginia Tech....Virginia
NC State..........UNC
Georgia Tech....Georgia
Duke...............UNC, Virginia
Wake Forest
Tulane
PAC (9).........Rivals
Boise State
Washington St...Washington
Oregon St.........Oregon
San Diego St
Air Force
Utah State........Utah
Fresno State
Colorado St......Colorado
UNLV
Notre Dame.....USC, Stanford, ACC (5)
This tier will hold a 16 team Championship Tournament. The 8 highest ranked division champs will host the first round on campus, with the Quarterfinal Round at the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls on New Year's Day or Eve. The Semifinals will be played at the Peach and Cotton Bowl. The Finals will be bid out on an annual basis among warm weather or domed stadium sites.
In addition to the 12 division champions who qualify automatically, the four highest ranked non-champs from among these 80 teams will be selected at-large.
Tier Two (G4) alignment will be posted in a separate thread.
RE: The final solution to FBS realignment - ken d - 09-23-2024 04:29 PM
In Tier Two of the FBS, there will be four conferences (football only in blue):
Sunbelt (14):
Appalachian St, James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, ODU, Georgia State
Troy, Louisiana, Arkansas St, Southern Miss, South Alabama, ULM, Texas State
AAC (12):
Navy, Temple, Army, East Carolina, UConn, and Charlotte
Tulsa, UAB, FAU, UTSA, North Texas, and Rice
MAC (14):
Toledo, Western Kentucky, Northern Illinois, WMU, CMU, Ball State, and EMU
Ohio, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Miami (O), Kent State, Akron, and UMass.
CUSA (16):
Louisiana Tech, MTSU, Jacksonville St, Liberty, Kennesaw St, FIU, Missouri St, and Delaware
Wyoming, Nevada, San Jose St, Sam Houston St, Hawaii, New Mexico, NMSU, and UTEP
The champions of the AAC and MAC will meet in the semifinals of the Tier Championship Tournament at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta prior to New Year’s Eve, while the champs of the Sunbelt and CUSA will play their semifinal at Jerry World in Dallas the day before.
All other Tier Two teams who qualify may compete in a bowl game against either a Tier One or Tier Two opponent.
Any of the 136 teams in the 2 highest divisions may appeal these assignments directly, and only, to the College Football Czar, who is unlikely to change his mind.
RE: The final solution to FBS realignment - JRsec - 09-24-2024 07:40 AM
(09-23-2024 04:29 PM)ken d Wrote: In Tier Two of the FBS, there will be four conferences (football only in blue):
Sunbelt (14):
Appalachian St, James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, ODU, Georgia State
Troy, Louisiana, Arkansas St, Southern Miss, South Alabama, ULM, Texas State
AAC (12):
Navy, Temple, Army, East Carolina, UConn, and Charlotte
Tulsa, UAB, FAU, UTSA, North Texas, and Rice
MAC (14):
Toledo, Western Kentucky, Northern Illinois, WMU, CMU, Ball State, and EMU
Ohio, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Miami (O), Kent State, Akron, and UMass.
CUSA (16):
Louisiana Tech, MTSU, Jacksonville St, Liberty, Kennesaw St, FIU, Missouri St, and Delaware
Wyoming, Nevada, San Jose St, Sam Houston St, Hawaii, New Mexico, NMSU, and UTEP
The champions of the AAC and MAC will meet in the semifinals of the Tier Championship Tournament at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta prior to New Year’s Eve, while the champs of the Sunbelt and CUSA will play their semifinal at Jerry World in Dallas the day before.
All other Tier Two teams who qualify may compete in a bowl game against either a Tier One or Tier Two opponent.
Any of the 136 teams in the 2 highest divisions may appeal these assignments directly, and only, to the College Football Czar, who is unlikely to change his mind.
The Big 10 and SEC are very plausible.
The Big 12 and aCC are geographically sounder than they are now.
The PAC speculation turned out to be bit premature for all of the bluster which led you to account for them that way.
I'll say this however, all of the focus currently on the reshuffling of the G5 provides a much needed tempest in a teapot which draws attention to them, which is good for them, and away from the ACC, which is good for the ACC inasmuch as it provides better cover for working out its internal issues.
If I were going to bet on what happens with the ACC, and I won't, I'd bet that Clemson, North Carolina State, and FSU move with Kansas to the SEC within two years and that this good faith move by the SEC and ESPN will let Virginia, Duke, and North Carolina test the waters of an academically oriented ACC suited to Notre Dame and Tobacco Road.
If it doesn't work out the hardest schools to place are already in the SEC taking them to 20, and leaving an escape hatch for Duke, Virginia, North Carolina and Notre Dame if things don't work out. ESPN honors the current contract, comes up with the cash to fund the incentive program which without FSU and Clemson is truly open for all, and they shorten the contract to 2030 and make that achievement reward a bit richer with money they save on the back end of the contract which is riskier for ESPN.
You refill with South Florida, Tulane, and Navy and move to 20 with Army and Air Force.
there is your academic conference. If Vanderbilt can be enticed to join simply to make XLance attain euporia the Virginia Tech moves on over to the SEC with the aforementioned 4.
Now your ACC looks like this:
Army, Boston College, Navy, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech (Vanderbilt), Wake Forest
Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, South Florida, Tulane
Air Force, California, *Notre Dame, Southern Methodist, Stanford
* Note Notre Dame plays four of its 5 games against the division as its entry potential into the conference championship playoff.
Now my SEC looks like this:
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt (Virginia Tech)
Ken, I believe that stabilizes both conferences and still provides a safety net to the top brands of the new ACC should their revenue and academic association experiment not prove to be sufficient.
Also note that the annual battle for the Commander in Chief Trophy will be a national draw with the armed forces network.
RE: The final solution to FBS realignment - Nerdlinger - 09-24-2024 09:40 AM
(09-23-2024 04:28 PM)ken d Wrote: ACC (14)..........Rivals
Louisville..........Kentucky
West Virginia....Pitt
UCF
Cincinnati
Boston College
Syracuse
USF
Virginia Tech.....Virginia
NC State..........UNC
Georgia Tech....Georgia
Duke...............UNC, Virginia
Wake Forest
Tulane
Missing a Miami. Also, "final solution" has certain other connotations you might want to avoid...
RE: The final solution to FBS realignment - JSchmack - 09-24-2024 09:51 AM
I was looking for a thread to bring this up -- And I agree that you should never use THOSE two words together like that on a message board!
There's talk of Private Equity entering into college athletics. And that got me thinking...
I hear about all the big rich boosters who pay hundreds of millions of dollars to their beloved programs...
With athletics departments realigning and fighting over dollar amounts that are what a backup middle infielder or waived power forward makes; how much would it take for a consortium of uber wealthy elites to simply offer schools to be aligned according to their preference?
Like if SMU's donors can come up with enough cash that they don't need TV money from the ACC... why can't a bigger group of donors pay the schools to get the Southwest Conference back together?
RE: The end game for FBS realignment - ken d - 09-24-2024 10:10 AM
(09-24-2024 09:40 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:(09-23-2024 04:28 PM)ken d Wrote: ACC (14)..........Rivals
Louisville..........Kentucky
West Virginia....Pitt
UCF
Cincinnati
Boston College
Syracuse
USF
Virginia Tech.....Virginia
NC State..........UNC
Georgia Tech....Georgia
Duke...............UNC, Virginia
Wake Forest
Tulane
Missing a Miami. Also, "final solution" has certain other connotations you might want to avoid...
My mind didn't go there, but you are right. I've changed it and edited to put put Miami where they belong.
RE: The end game for FBS realignment - XLance - 09-24-2024 01:19 PM
(09-23-2024 04:28 PM)ken d Wrote: In my new (and imaginary) role as College Football Czar, I have decided that we must have some relief from the constant speculation about what schools are going where. So I have established the following conference alignment, and hereby decree that there will be no further changes to the Top FBS Tier for at least the next ten years. These are the conferences and divisions in Tier One (80 teams). After each school, I have listed their protected annual rivalry games, some within the conference and others OOC. Each school (other than Notre Dame) may have no more than two protected rivalry games.
SEC (20)............Rivals
Alabama..........Tennessee
LSU
Auburn............Georgia
Mississippi St
Ole Miss
Georgia...........Auburn, Georgia Tech
Florida............Florida State
Tennessee.......Alabama
Kentucky.........Louisville
Vanderbilt
Clemson
Florida State....Florida, Miami
South Carolina
UNC................Duke, NC State
Virginia...........Virginia Tech, Duke
Oklahoma.......Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Texas
Missouri..........Kansas
Arkansas
B1G (20)............Rivals
Ohio State.......Michigan
Penn State
Pitt.................West Virginia
Maryland
Rutgers
Michigan..........Ohio State
Michigan St
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
Wisconsin
Iowa...............Iowa State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Oregon...........Oregon State
Washington.....Washington St
USC...............Notre Dame
Stanford.........California, Notre Dame
UCLA..............California
Big 12 (16).......Rivals
Oklahoma St....Oklahoma
TCU................SMU
Kansas St
Baylor
Texas Tech
Iowa State.......Iowa
Houston..........SMU
Kansas............Missouri
Utah...............Utah State
Arizona St
Memphis
BYU
Arizona
California........Stanford, UCLA
Colorado.........Colorado State
SMU...............TCU, Houston
ACC (14)..........Rivals
Louisville..........Kentucky
West Virginia....Pitt
UCF
Cincinnati
Boston College
Syracuse
USF
Miami..............Florida State
Virginia Tech....Virginia
NC State..........UNC
Georgia Tech....Georgia
Duke...............UNC, Virginia
Wake Forest
Tulane
PAC (9).........Rivals
Boise State
Washington St...Washington
Oregon St.........Oregon
San Diego St
Air Force
Utah State........Utah
Fresno State
Colorado St......Colorado
UNLV
Notre Dame.....USC, Stanford, ACC (5)
This tier will hold a 16 team Championship Tournament. The 8 highest ranked division champs will host the first round on campus, with the Quarterfinal Round at the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls on New Year's Day or Eve. The Semifinals will be played at the Peach and Cotton Bowl. The Finals will be bid out on an annual basis among warm weather or domed stadium sites.
In addition to the 12 division champions who qualify automatically, the four highest ranked non-champs from among these 80 teams will be selected at-large.
Tier Two (G4) alignment will be posted in a separate thread.
While nothing is ever going to be ideal:
ACC: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Maryland, Rutgers, West Virginia, VT, UVa, Duke, Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest, Clemson, South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Miami
SEC: Kentucky, Tenn, Ga, Fla, FSU, Mizzou, Vandy, Auburn. MSU, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Alabama
B1G: Cal, UCLA, SC, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Penn State, OSU, Mich., MSU, Notre Dame, Purdue, Indiana, Ill, Northwestern, Wisc, Minn, Iowa
Big 12:-Nebraska, KSU, Kansas, Iowa State, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, USF, UCF, Cincy, Colorado, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Louisville
RE: The end game for FBS realignment - RUScarlets - 09-24-2024 01:44 PM
If there is one thing I've learned after 20 years following realignment, there is NO END GAME.
There will always be new structures, new business models, maybe even new universities or the destruction of centuries long bellwethers that may seem unimaginable today.
I don't care what we end up with. Super League, NFL minor league, you name it, this will never "settle" in our lifetimes.
RE: The end game for FBS realignment - bullet - 09-26-2024 11:40 AM
(09-24-2024 01:44 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: If there is one thing I've learned after 20 years following realignment, there is NO END GAME.
There will always be new structures, new business models, maybe even new universities or the destruction of centuries long bellwethers that may seem unimaginable today.
I don't care what we end up with. Super League, NFL minor league, you name it, this will never "settle" in our lifetimes.
The major changes are driven by outside forces.
The GI Bill and later Vietnam War grew and strengthened state universities and that saw a lot of private schools drop down. Concurrent with that, the NFL took root and harmed many urban university football programs.
The UGA/OU lawsuit ending the NCAA TV monopoly lead to the 90s realignments.
The birth of the conference network model lead to the 2010s realignments.
Now we are facing realignment based on the simultaneous dying of the cable model and of the amateur athletics model.
RE: The end game for FBS realignment - Wahoowa84 - 09-27-2024 11:49 AM
(09-24-2024 01:44 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: If there is one thing I've learned after 20 years following realignment, there is NO END GAME.
There will always be new structures, new business models, maybe even new universities or the destruction of centuries long bellwethers that may seem unimaginable today.
I don't care what we end up with. Super League, NFL minor league, you name it, this will never "settle" in our lifetimes.
Agree. There is no such thing as an end game to realignment, this is all a journey for whatever is currently valued (money, prestige, power, etc.). So long as there is an interest in elite collegiate athletics, the journey continues.
That being said, the highest level of collegiate athletics is currently being transformed into a more professional industry with greater focus on football. For the past several decades, the SEC has been the most successful conference in adapting to the new model. Yet the MidWest blue bloods (e.g., Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame) are also excelling.
IMO the suggestion that the ACC will try to convert into an "academic conference" doesn't make business sense. Conferences have profiles, and schools have long-standing rivalries and associations that help them enhance those brands...these are merely adaptable means-to-the-end tactics. Nevertheless, the underlying objective is still to be the most successful in elite collegiate athletics. That's why the ACC picked Louisville after Maryland announced its departure (it was the best school available at the time of expansion). It's also why the B1G abandoned its MidWestern and contiguous-state footprint by taking Pacific Coast schools more recently. The point being, conference membership will adapt to the current realities. Pursuing an "academic conference" is akin to forming the Ivy League in 1953, the universities would be deemphasizing athletics at their universities. There is no ACC university in the ACC that is proposing that vision.
RE: The end game for FBS realignment - JRsec - 09-27-2024 12:39 PM
(09-27-2024 11:49 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(09-24-2024 01:44 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: If there is one thing I've learned after 20 years following realignment, there is NO END GAME.
There will always be new structures, new business models, maybe even new universities or the destruction of centuries long bellwethers that may seem unimaginable today.
I don't care what we end up with. Super League, NFL minor league, you name it, this will never "settle" in our lifetimes.
Agree. There is no such thing as an end game to realignment, this is all a journey for whatever is currently valued (money, prestige, power, etc.). So long as there is an interest in elite collegiate athletics, the journey continues.
That being said, the highest level of collegiate athletics is currently being transformed into a more professional industry with greater focus on football. For the past several decades, the SEC has been the most successful conference in adapting to the new model. Yet the MidWest blue bloods (e.g., Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame) are also excelling.
IMO the suggestion that the ACC will try to convert into an "academic conference" doesn't make business sense. Conferences have profiles, and schools have long-standing rivalries and associations that help them enhance those brands...these are merely adaptable means-to-the-end tactics. Nevertheless, the underlying objective is still to be the most successful in elite collegiate athletics. That's why the ACC picked Louisville after Maryland announced its departure (it was the best school available at the time of expansion). It's also why the B1G abandoned its MidWestern and contiguous-state footprint by taking Pacific Coast schools more recently. The point being, conference membership will adapt to the current realities. Pursuing an "academic conference" is akin to forming the Ivy League in 1953, the universities would be deemphasizing athletics at their universities. There is no ACC university in the ACC that is proposing that vision.
Professionalism will divide it all because the ability to earn and pay will drive the business model. Those who choose not to spend at that level will need a position which affords them dignity. Choosing not to pursue something you cannot, or aren't willing, to afford, needs a substitute for participation which is noble. Stressing academics becomes the hill to die upon and the resultant martyrdom is the opiate to make the transition from brand recognition to just a venerated and fine school.
Honestly Wahoowa there aren't that many schools in the ACC that have the revenue from sports, the attendance, or the viewership numbers to make the jump. That's why you are desperately trying to make it impossible to leave for two of them which can make the move. Notre Dame obviously will do what it wishes.
I think many are in for a rude surprise in a professional tier of college athletics is opened and joining it will be seen as an act of compliance.
RE: The end game for FBS realignment - Wahoowa84 - 09-27-2024 06:16 PM
(09-27-2024 12:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:(09-27-2024 11:49 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(09-24-2024 01:44 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: If there is one thing I've learned after 20 years following realignment, there is NO END GAME.
There will always be new structures, new business models, maybe even new universities or the destruction of centuries long bellwethers that may seem unimaginable today.
I don't care what we end up with. Super League, NFL minor league, you name it, this will never "settle" in our lifetimes.
Agree. There is no such thing as an end game to realignment, this is all a journey for whatever is currently valued (money, prestige, power, etc.). So long as there is an interest in elite collegiate athletics, the journey continues.
That being said, the highest level of collegiate athletics is currently being transformed into a more professional industry with greater focus on football. For the past several decades, the SEC has been the most successful conference in adapting to the new model. Yet the MidWest blue bloods (e.g., Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame) are also excelling.
IMO the suggestion that the ACC will try to convert into an "academic conference" doesn't make business sense. Conferences have profiles, and schools have long-standing rivalries and associations that help them enhance those brands...these are merely adaptable means-to-the-end tactics. Nevertheless, the underlying objective is still to be the most successful in elite collegiate athletics. That's why the ACC picked Louisville after Maryland announced its departure (it was the best school available at the time of expansion). It's also why the B1G abandoned its MidWestern and contiguous-state footprint by taking Pacific Coast schools more recently. The point being, conference membership will adapt to the current realities. Pursuing an "academic conference" is akin to forming the Ivy League in 1953, the universities would be deemphasizing athletics at their universities. There is no ACC university in the ACC that is proposing that vision.
Professionalism will divide it all because the ability to earn and pay will drive the business model. Those who choose not to spend at that level will need a position which affords them dignity. Choosing not to pursue something you cannot, or aren't willing, to afford, needs a substitute for participation which is noble. Stressing academics becomes the hill to die upon and the resultant martyrdom is the opiate to make the transition from brand recognition to just a venerated and fine school.
Honestly Wahoowa there aren't that many schools in the ACC that have the revenue from sports, the attendance, or the viewership numbers to make the jump. That's why you are desperately trying to make it impossible to leave for two of them which can make the move. Notre Dame obviously will do what it wishes.
I think many are in for a rude surprise in a professional tier of college athletics is opened and joining it will be seen as an act of compliance.
IMO it’s still too early to know how professional sports will impact the profitability and interests in elite collegiate athletics. Historically, 60-70 schools have been able to function with relatively sound finances and robust (broad-based) athletic departments. It’s possible, even likely, that the number of viable programs will shrink as the professional model will be more cut throat. Fortunately, even the SEC and B1G have to address the needs of its lower tier…which creates a floor for the ptb to establish financial expectations.
With regards to the lawsuits, the ACC is hardly the desperate party that is trying to obliterate commitments. Everyone knows that they need to make more revenue faster…and are flexible in modifying incentives or seek different solutions. FSU and Clemson have convinced themselves of impending doom, yet are unwilling to make reasonable offers to leave.