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Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - JRsec - 04-16-2023 01:54 PM
The SEC has had a plan for growth that it has been working since 1990-2. Expand regionally, with the best possible branding, and the best possible contiguity.
I've discussed many times how the dream moves to 16 in 1990-2 would have been to land Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M to the West (done), and Florida State and Clemson to the East. The presidents, way back 30+ years ago, thought that the Southeast and Southwest were the two strongest regions culturally for college football. And they were. This applied to the support of high school programs and college sports. Add brands with a national draw or very strong regional draw in regions where the highest percentage of actual viewers compared to potential viewers existed and the networks would be on board as well.
People forget that Arkansas was a strong brand, even in hoops with Nolan Richardson's Hogs giving everyone 40 minutes of hell. South Carolina was not a primary target but is the state flagship of South Carolina and has done well in the SEC providing along with Tennessee, Georgia, and Kentucky, a natural reach to North Carolina should we want it.
To date the SEC has only made one move for markets only, Missouri, which was an acceptable option necessary to fulfill ESPN's renegotiation clause in the then Tier 2 contract with the SEC, and in preparation of opening the SECN, and defensively for the network more so than the SEC as it robbed part of the pathway for the Big 10 to Oklahoma or Texas. It also leaves us a natural rival for a valuable basketball school and rival of Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and a neighbor seldom played in the past, Arkansas.
As we now stand there is much debate about who, if we grow again, should be considered.
The SEC needs more Florida destinations to accommodate the demand among conference mates for games in Florida. Florida State would be the strongest consideration here due to geography, being in the capital of the state, and overall fit in terms of competitiveness in all sports and attendance. Besides the Gators have twice nominated them for SEC membership. Miami, however, is not without merit as it reaches a different part of the state.
The focus for the past decade has been for additions in North Carolina and Virginia. The markets are valuable, and basketball is valuable, but the football in both is lacking and their valuation is not that great, even at UNC. But more on that later.
So far, the SEC has added value and the best remaining value additions which are in new markets and contiguous are Notre Dame which in Indiana is contiguous to Kentucky, and Kansas, which as noted above fits the new SEC West quite well. Those two additions would bring a combined value of 1.4 billion to the SEC, which already enjoys a 3.1-billion-dollar lead over the Big 10. What's more is that Notre Dame would tap nicely into Big 10 markets giving the SEC a strategic advantage overall.
The question is, would Notre Dame even consider SEC membership? At first glance, and based upon their past history the answer would seem to be no. There's the NBC affiliation and tie in with the current Big 10 which would lend one to believe that may be a thing which gives the Big 10 an advantage. But then there is the ESPN relationship, and their NBC contract is coming open relatively soon.
What does the Big 10 offer the Irish? Academic associations to be sure, a home for hockey where the sport is beloved, and a lot of exposure in Big 10 cities, but the Irish already have that. USC and possibly Stanford as conferences mates would be another angle. But California is largely secular, football is dying out there culturally faster than in most parts of the Northern Midwest and South, and if USC remains on an island and Notre Dame remains independent and can schedule them anyway is that really a selling point? Even if they don't remain on an island and the Big 10 picks up Stanford, Oregon, and Washington is that really important to Notre Dame? So outside of ease of travel for minor sports and a home for hockey the answer is not much.
The SEC has some key advantages for Notre Dame. It now holds two of the three strongest football recruiting regions in the country, the Southeast and Southwest. It now has enough academic elites to at least be competitive academically (Texas, Florida, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Missouri, and could likely wind up with a few more). We have large travel crowds, good weather, and a more rapidly growing population center. We also have a large number of Catholics and a few states growing significantly in that regard. With Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky near enough to make travel better, and with the possibility of North Carolina and Virginia in the future, perhaps even a bit more geographically and academically friendly. And the SEC has ESPN which would love to find a way to build upon and capitalize Notre Dame.
Kansas is only waiting upon an invitation.
If the SEC added as numbers 17 & 18 Kansas and Notre Dame the realignment game is over with the exception of niche additions (think Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia to 24).
Would ESPN like to have this as their primary conference?
SEC East:
Clemson, Duke, Florida, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina
SEC North:
Kentucky, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Virginia, Vanderbilt
SEC South:
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
SEC West:
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
The payouts here could easily hit 100 million for the branding and reach.
How do you lure Notre Dame? They don't participate in the SECN. They have the NDN set up and sold in package with the rest by ESPN. Notre Dame's travel is not extensive, they are in the bowl structure and conference for everything, they just have their own network, which could serve as a base for the athletics of Catholic schools elsewhere if they wished it to. They get access to the best recruiting in the nation and games regularly in all of those regions.
Basketball branding is now stellar: Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas are the four winningest programs in college basketball. Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, Florida, L.S.U., Texas, Oklahoma are all historically solid relevant and Texas A&M, Miami, Auburn, and Alabama are rising as is Florida State.
Baseball and Softball are through the roof!
What this kind of move, should we be able to pull it off, would do is essentially open the door in the future for the addition of 6 more schools in a division of their own:
Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin and Nebraska.
Follow that with this:
Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Washington
And now the 36-team super league is formed. Why? It ties them all into the only regions left with solid recruiting and enough recruits to make them all competitive. It is no accident that the Southeastern and Southwestern regions have accounted for 22 of the last 25 national championships.
IMO, the taking of Southern California and U.C.L.A. was the mistake in the Chess game that the SEC was waiting for. The Big 10 can't afford to leave those two exposed and on their own out west. Interest will flag without main rivals, travel will be a killer past peak oil, which we may have met. The Big 10 is now committed to expending more slots to the West. That means fewer slots to the East. Without Notre Dame they have no chance of keeping pace with the SEC financially. Southern schools will opt for more money and regional play and will not be interested in being 2 to 4 schools mostly traveling like hell to games in the Northern Midwest their fans and donors care little to see.
So where's the upside business wise in this for ESPN, FOX and the schools involved?
ESPN becomes what it has been rumored to become, a broker. The six divisions have their T1 rights packaged and sold to key networks individually, but the money is pooled and divided by all. T2 rights are either kept and aired by ESPN or FOX (with FOX main network included for T1 and ABC with T1 for Disney) and the Divisional networks are sold individually or with a bundle for all, utilizing all of the T3. This is why the NDN doesn't hurt the SECN and actually helps it in a bundle as the NDN is part of the SECN 6 divisional bundle.
What happens to the rest of the schools presently in the P5? They form their own league in a second tier offering.
If ESPN/FOX want to make this happen, then Notre Dame and Kansas to the SEC would get it done. If they want two distinct leagues which meet in the Super Bowl of college football, then FOX has to land Notre Dame, and either Kansas or Washington.
Anyway, that's how I see it.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - Wahoowa84 - 04-19-2023 10:25 AM
If only Notre Dame wanted to join a conference. They could be kingmakers plus get revenge over the bigotry of Fielding Yost.
More likely, Notre Dame sticks to its independent core. They ride the ACC train as long as possible. Assuming football is 75+% of revenues, the SEC continues its championship dominance and the ACC destabilizes…then ND will eventually negotiate a partial deal with the B1G. Michigan and Ohio State will adapt the guiding principles of the B1G.
In a world were the B1G is threatened due to lack of football depth, they can use their media financial payouts advantage to entice programs with proven championship caliber teams. They could expand with ND partial, plus Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech. Underneath the bravado of AAU membership, the fundamental interest is in promoting academic research. ND, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State all have strong academic research commitments. Clemson is the only modest outlier…strong undergrad educational reputation without a large research portfolio. IMHO, even amongst B1G-affiliated academics Clemson would be less controversial than Nebraska. The Southern wing of the ACC makes more media revenue than their SEC rivals, while also maintaining a viable path to elite recruits and football championships.
Unfortunately for the SEC, there is not sufficient upside associated with Clemson or Georgia Tech or Florida State or Miami. A second program in the state of Florida may make sense, but these additions are generally dilutive and defensive. The SEC would actually benefit more from having a stable ACC.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - JRsec - 04-19-2023 10:47 AM
(04-19-2023 10:25 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: If only Notre Dame wanted to join a conference. They could be kingmakers plus get revenge over the bigotry of Fielding Yost.
More likely, Notre Dame sticks to its independent core. They ride the ACC train as long as possible. Assuming football is 75+% of revenues, the SEC continues its championship dominance and the ACC destabilizes…then ND will eventually negotiate a partial deal with the B1G. Michigan and Ohio State will adapt the guiding principles of the B1G.
In a world were the B1G is threatened due to lack of football depth, they can use their media financial payouts advantage to entice programs with proven championship caliber teams. They could expand with ND partial, plus Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech. Underneath the bravado of AAU membership, the fundamental interest is in promoting academic research. ND, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State all have strong academic research commitments. Clemson is the only modest outlier…strong undergrad educational reputation without a large research portfolio. IMHO, even amongst B1G-affiliated academics Clemson would be less controversial than Nebraska. The Southern wing of the ACC makes more media revenue than their SEC rivals, while also maintaining a viable path to elite recruits and football championships.
Except they likely wont have much of a media revenue advantage if any. We are passing, if we haven't passed, peak oil and travel will be more costly than ever. The coming supreme court ruling on pay for play is the odds-on favorite to kill off amateurism and institute pay for play, and SEC schools make more total revenue than any conference and have for years. And that event is the end of the connection between athletics and being an AAU school. And if Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson let the Big 10 into the Deep South the SEC would never schedule another single game with them. Between the 3 of them they can each play 2 games in the Deep South and one will be away. Other than that, their home slates will be filled with Northern schools that only their immediate fan base, which would shrink significantly from lack of t shirt fans, would support. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson have one game each which predicates all of their donations and each of those games is against an in-state SEC rival. Say bye-bye to your donation games. Miami is unique. So far away it doesn't impact the SEC much so I don't think they matter so much.
And where do you think Southern recruits will go? To the conference where they family and friends can watch them play regularly, and close by. To the conference which places more players on NFL rosters than any other. To the conference that has dominated championships for the past two decades plus.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - UCbball21 - 04-19-2023 09:30 PM
I just think we are a LONG way from consolidating all of the top football institutions into one conference. There is too much academic elitism from B1G country to join the SEC, warranted or not. I think it is more likely that the B1G and SEC end up more like the AFC and NFC under a pro model with a joint commissioner a la the NFL.
If the SEC were to go full death star and try to poach the top B1G teams they probably need to drop Miss. St. and Vandy first as well.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - JRsec - 04-19-2023 09:38 PM
(04-19-2023 09:30 PM)UCbball21 Wrote: I just think we are a LONG way from consolidating all of the top football institutions into one conference. There is too much academic elitism from B1G country to join the SEC, warranted or not. I think it is more likely that the B1G and SEC end up more like the AFC and NFC under a pro model with a joint commissioner a la the NFL.
If the SEC were to go full death star and try to poach the top B1G teams they probably need to drop Miss. St. and Vandy first as well.
First, I expect both to spend some time as the Super 2.
Second, it would be ESPN going full Death Star, not the SEC. Should that happen I do not anticipate anyone being dropped, I can see ESPN raising the minimum level of investment in facilities, salaries, and roster size, and number of other sports to a level where a Vandy, Miss State, or a few others would have to consider dropping down. So yes there would likely be a culling, but not one that would come from the SEC, but rather from a contracting entity imposing some fairly high minimums.
And I would see that happening post 2036 when the sport would need to consolidate and tie the major players into Southern California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama, and other recruiting hot beds, and do so utilizing only the strongest brands (think 24 to 32 schools). It would be a last ditch approach to milk a dying sport and would seek to make it a novelty. The NFL would have a vested interest as well.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - CardinalJim - 04-20-2023 06:14 AM
(04-19-2023 09:38 PM)JRsec Wrote: First, I expect both to spend some time as the Super 2.
Second, it would be ESPN going full Death Star, not the SEC. Should that happen I do not anticipate anyone being dropped, I can see ESPN raising the minimum level of investment in facilities, salaries, and roster size, and number of other sports to a level where a Vandy, Miss State, or a few others would have to consider dropping down. So yes there would likely be a culling, but not one that would come from the SEC, but rather from a contracting entity imposing some fairly high minimums.
And I would see that happening post 2036 when the sport would need to consolidate and tie the major players into Southern California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama, and other recruiting hot beds, and do so utilizing only the strongest brands (think 24 to 32 schools). It would be a last ditch approach to milk a dying sport and would seek to make it a novelty. The NFL would have a vested interest as well.
This needs to happen now. Budget, Stadium Size, Season Ticket Sales all metrics that could be used to determine a commitment to college football or not.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - UCbball21 - 04-20-2023 10:49 AM
(04-20-2023 06:14 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:(04-19-2023 09:38 PM)JRsec Wrote: First, I expect both to spend some time as the Super 2.
Second, it would be ESPN going full Death Star, not the SEC. Should that happen I do not anticipate anyone being dropped, I can see ESPN raising the minimum level of investment in facilities, salaries, and roster size, and number of other sports to a level where a Vandy, Miss State, or a few others would have to consider dropping down. So yes there would likely be a culling, but not one that would come from the SEC, but rather from a contracting entity imposing some fairly high minimums.
And I would see that happening post 2036 when the sport would need to consolidate and tie the major players into Southern California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama, and other recruiting hot beds, and do so utilizing only the strongest brands (think 24 to 32 schools). It would be a last ditch approach to milk a dying sport and would seek to make it a novelty. The NFL would have a vested interest as well.
This needs to happen now. Budget, Stadium Size, Season Ticket Sales all metrics that could be used to determine a commitment to college football or not.
I think conference realignment is already doing its job of weeding out the haves and the have-nots without the NCAA imposing additional restrictions and public backlash that would inevitably ensue.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - Wahoowa84 - 04-20-2023 01:54 PM
(04-19-2023 10:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:25 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: If only Notre Dame wanted to join a conference. They could be kingmakers plus get revenge over the bigotry of Fielding Yost.
More likely, Notre Dame sticks to its independent core. They ride the ACC train as long as possible. Assuming football is 75+% of revenues, the SEC continues its championship dominance and the ACC destabilizes…then ND will eventually negotiate a partial deal with the B1G. Michigan and Ohio State will adapt the guiding principles of the B1G.
In a world were the B1G is threatened due to lack of football depth, they can use their media financial payouts advantage to entice programs with proven championship caliber teams. They could expand with ND partial, plus Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech. Underneath the bravado of AAU membership, the fundamental interest is in promoting academic research. ND, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State all have strong academic research commitments. Clemson is the only modest outlier…strong undergrad educational reputation without a large research portfolio. IMHO, even amongst B1G-affiliated academics Clemson would be less controversial than Nebraska. The Southern wing of the ACC makes more media revenue than their SEC rivals, while also maintaining a viable path to elite recruits and football championships.
Except they likely wont have much of a media revenue advantage if any. We are passing, if we haven't passed, peak oil and travel will be more costly than ever. The coming supreme court ruling on pay for play is the odds-on favorite to kill off amateurism and institute pay for play, and SEC schools make more total revenue than any conference and have for years. And that event is the end of the connection between athletics and being an AAU school. And if Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson let the Big 10 into the Deep South the SEC would never schedule another single game with them. Between the 3 of them they can each play 2 games in the Deep South and one will be away. Other than that, their home slates will be filled with Northern schools that only their immediate fan base, which would shrink significantly from lack of t shirt fans, would support. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson have one game each which predicates all of their donations and each of those games is against an in-state SEC rival. Say bye-bye to your donation games. Miami is unique. So far away it doesn't impact the SEC much so I don't think they matter so much.
And where do you think Southern recruits will go? To the conference where they family and friends can watch them play regularly, and close by. To the conference which places more players on NFL rosters than any other. To the conference that has dominated championships for the past two decades plus.
IMO, the right adds could be the difference in continued growth of media payouts. Also, it’s not necessary to have that level of acrimony about realignment decisions. Non-P2 programs are seeking conference upgrades. While the SEC and B1G are also trying to create new value. Sometimes the best decision is to move away from old paradigms (e.g., B1G = AAU or SEC = Southern hegemony) and focus on needs to create win-win solutions.
In a P2 world, the B1G needs more programs with on-field football success. Alabama, Georgia and SEC programs are not available, so the B1G goes after the closest alternatives with championship caliber football. The ACC’s southern wing are much more valuable if they align with the B1G.
The ACC’s southern wing is also dilutive in the new SEC. Conference competition is a zero sum game, Clemson success will adversely impact South Carolina (GT in the SEC won’t help UGA, and FSU/UF has the same dynamic). After the OUT expansion, many SEC programs are at risk of losing brand value because conference wins will be harder to achieve. The more valuable long-term growth options for the SEC (and ESPN) are programs like UNC, Kansas, Duke or UVa.
Stopping the annual in-state rivalry is possible but unnecessary. Arkansas is the best example of a program that lost its critical annual rivalries after realignment. Arkansas was a national power that depended on access to Texas recruits in the old SWC, and has had to gradually build back. If the rivalries are meaningful to the state and fans, preventing these games will be a Pyrrhic victory for the SEC.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - JRsec - 04-20-2023 02:07 PM
(04-20-2023 01:54 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:25 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: If only Notre Dame wanted to join a conference. They could be kingmakers plus get revenge over the bigotry of Fielding Yost.
More likely, Notre Dame sticks to its independent core. They ride the ACC train as long as possible. Assuming football is 75+% of revenues, the SEC continues its championship dominance and the ACC destabilizes…then ND will eventually negotiate a partial deal with the B1G. Michigan and Ohio State will adapt the guiding principles of the B1G.
In a world were the B1G is threatened due to lack of football depth, they can use their media financial payouts advantage to entice programs with proven championship caliber teams. They could expand with ND partial, plus Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech. Underneath the bravado of AAU membership, the fundamental interest is in promoting academic research. ND, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State all have strong academic research commitments. Clemson is the only modest outlier…strong undergrad educational reputation without a large research portfolio. IMHO, even amongst B1G-affiliated academics Clemson would be less controversial than Nebraska. The Southern wing of the ACC makes more media revenue than their SEC rivals, while also maintaining a viable path to elite recruits and football championships.
Except they likely wont have much of a media revenue advantage if any. We are passing, if we haven't passed, peak oil and travel will be more costly than ever. The coming supreme court ruling on pay for play is the odds-on favorite to kill off amateurism and institute pay for play, and SEC schools make more total revenue than any conference and have for years. And that event is the end of the connection between athletics and being an AAU school. And if Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson let the Big 10 into the Deep South the SEC would never schedule another single game with them. Between the 3 of them they can each play 2 games in the Deep South and one will be away. Other than that, their home slates will be filled with Northern schools that only their immediate fan base, which would shrink significantly from lack of t shirt fans, would support. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson have one game each which predicates all of their donations and each of those games is against an in-state SEC rival. Say bye-bye to your donation games. Miami is unique. So far away it doesn't impact the SEC much so I don't think they matter so much.
And where do you think Southern recruits will go? To the conference where they family and friends can watch them play regularly, and close by. To the conference which places more players on NFL rosters than any other. To the conference that has dominated championships for the past two decades plus.
IMO, the right adds could be the difference in continued growth of media payouts. Also, it’s not necessary to have that level of acrimony about realignment decisions. Non-P2 programs are seeking conference upgrades. While the SEC and B1G are also trying to create new value. Sometimes the best decision is to move away from old paradigms (e.g., B1G = AAU or SEC = Southern hegemony) and focus on needs to create win-win solutions.
In a P2 world, the B1G needs more programs with on-field football success. Alabama, Georgia and SEC programs are not available, so the B1G goes after the closest alternatives with championship caliber football. The ACC’s southern wing are much more valuable if they align with the B1G.
The ACC’s southern wing is also dilutive in the new SEC. Conference competition is a zero sum game, Clemson success will adversely impact South Carolina (GT in the SEC won’t help UGA, and FSU/UF has the same dynamic). After the OUT expansion, many SEC programs are at risk of losing brand value because conference wins will be harder to achieve. The more valuable long-term growth options for the SEC (and ESPN) are programs like UNC, Kansas, Duke or UVa.
Stopping the annual in-state rivalry is possible but unnecessary. Arkansas is the best example of a program that lost its critical annual rivalries after realignment. Arkansas was a national power that depended on access to Texas recruits in the old SWC, and has had to gradually build back. If the rivalries are meaningful to the state and fans, preventing these games will be a Pyrrhic victory for the SEC.
This is one of those things which sounds good in theory and never works. Why? You are asking the two most successful entities in college sports to abandon what works for them. It's not happening. The SEC will push for regional control and the Big 10 will push for AAU additions in strong markets.
That's the long and short of it.
The SEC will be defensive of its region, period. And it will do so with all the leverage it can bring. The Big 10 will push for academic associations and more markets. That's what they do. The Newtwork's will control additions by financial estimates.
ESPN wants what the SEC wants and that's a great synergy. FOX wants more markets which is what the Big 10 wants and that too is synergy.
There is no other perspective which will be considered by any of those 4 parties.
The conflict will be over UNC, FSU, Miami, and possibly Georgia Tech, but Virginia may be easily divided and in an uncontested manner.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - XLance - 04-20-2023 02:33 PM
There is no reason for Notre Dame to do anything differently as long as NBC is willing to pay the Irish enough to make keep them in a competitive range of other schools (P2).
The Irish have scheduled an SEC game and a B1G game many years into the future which gets them exposure with both of those conferences while still based in the ACC.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - BeepBeepJeep - 04-20-2023 05:34 PM
You know, I wrote up a bunch of stuff but deleted it because I don't want to be antagonistic. I do have one fundamental point to make about speculating on a super conference: Why would ESPN, which essentially controls the majority of CFB today, including 100% of the SEC rights, 100% of the ACC rights, and half the Big XII, want to push for the creation of a super league that would promptly need to be NFL-ized in terms of media rights because ESPN only has 1 OTA channel and cable is dying (so ESPN/ESPN2/etc aren't good here) meaning they'd likely end up with 25%-ish at best of media rights of the new 36 team SEC?
This seems like ESPN will make a truckload more money continuing to control what they control today, instead of creating a monster of a league that would have so much leverage and incentive to promptly charge ESPN/ABC a ton more and also reduce their overall control. ESPN as a broker isn't needed, the B1G just brokered an NFL like deal that explicitly excludes ESPN/ABC, the NFL's own deal shows that ABC/ESPN isn't willing to step up for the far better packages that CBS/NBC/FOX already have and what's the value for ESPN in being a broker vs what they make today?
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - Porcine - 04-20-2023 05:34 PM
(04-20-2023 01:54 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:25 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: If only Notre Dame wanted to join a conference. They could be kingmakers plus get revenge over the bigotry of Fielding Yost.
More likely, Notre Dame sticks to its independent core. They ride the ACC train as long as possible. Assuming football is 75+% of revenues, the SEC continues its championship dominance and the ACC destabilizes…then ND will eventually negotiate a partial deal with the B1G. Michigan and Ohio State will adapt the guiding principles of the B1G.
In a world were the B1G is threatened due to lack of football depth, they can use their media financial payouts advantage to entice programs with proven championship caliber teams. They could expand with ND partial, plus Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech. Underneath the bravado of AAU membership, the fundamental interest is in promoting academic research. ND, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State all have strong academic research commitments. Clemson is the only modest outlier…strong undergrad educational reputation without a large research portfolio. IMHO, even amongst B1G-affiliated academics Clemson would be less controversial than Nebraska. The Southern wing of the ACC makes more media revenue than their SEC rivals, while also maintaining a viable path to elite recruits and football championships.
Except they likely wont have much of a media revenue advantage if any. We are passing, if we haven't passed, peak oil and travel will be more costly than ever. The coming supreme court ruling on pay for play is the odds-on favorite to kill off amateurism and institute pay for play, and SEC schools make more total revenue than any conference and have for years. And that event is the end of the connection between athletics and being an AAU school. And if Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson let the Big 10 into the Deep South the SEC would never schedule another single game with them. Between the 3 of them they can each play 2 games in the Deep South and one will be away. Other than that, their home slates will be filled with Northern schools that only their immediate fan base, which would shrink significantly from lack of t shirt fans, would support. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson have one game each which predicates all of their donations and each of those games is against an in-state SEC rival. Say bye-bye to your donation games. Miami is unique. So far away it doesn't impact the SEC much so I don't think they matter so much.
And where do you think Southern recruits will go? To the conference where they family and friends can watch them play regularly, and close by. To the conference which places more players on NFL rosters than any other. To the conference that has dominated championships for the past two decades plus.
IMO, the right adds could be the difference in continued growth of media payouts. Also, it’s not necessary to have that level of acrimony about realignment decisions. Non-P2 programs are seeking conference upgrades. While the SEC and B1G are also trying to create new value. Sometimes the best decision is to move away from old paradigms (e.g., B1G = AAU or SEC = Southern hegemony) and focus on needs to create win-win solutions.
In a P2 world, the B1G needs more programs with on-field football success. Alabama, Georgia and SEC programs are not available, so the B1G goes after the closest alternatives with championship caliber football. The ACC’s southern wing are much more valuable if they align with the B1G.
The ACC’s southern wing is also dilutive in the new SEC. Conference competition is a zero sum game, Clemson success will adversely impact South Carolina (GT in the SEC won’t help UGA, and FSU/UF has the same dynamic). After the OUT expansion, many SEC programs are at risk of losing brand value because conference wins will be harder to achieve. The more valuable long-term growth options for the SEC (and ESPN) are programs like UNC, Kansas, Duke or UVa.
Stopping the annual in-state rivalry is possible but unnecessary. Arkansas is the best example of a program that lost its critical annual rivalries after realignment. Arkansas was a national power that depended on access to Texas recruits in the old SWC, and has had to gradually build back. If the rivalries are meaningful to the state and fans, preventing these games will be a Pyrrhic victory for the SEC.
What hurt Arkansas was our former Chancellor kept screwing up athletics that it got him, Frank Broyles, and Houston Nutt all fired in 2007. Too bad he was allowed to hire the new AD Jeff Long, who was run out of here and Kansas too not long after.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - GarnetAndBlue - 04-21-2023 07:56 AM
(04-20-2023 05:34 PM)Porcine Wrote:(04-20-2023 01:54 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:25 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: If only Notre Dame wanted to join a conference. They could be kingmakers plus get revenge over the bigotry of Fielding Yost.
More likely, Notre Dame sticks to its independent core. They ride the ACC train as long as possible. Assuming football is 75+% of revenues, the SEC continues its championship dominance and the ACC destabilizes…then ND will eventually negotiate a partial deal with the B1G. Michigan and Ohio State will adapt the guiding principles of the B1G.
In a world were the B1G is threatened due to lack of football depth, they can use their media financial payouts advantage to entice programs with proven championship caliber teams. They could expand with ND partial, plus Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech. Underneath the bravado of AAU membership, the fundamental interest is in promoting academic research. ND, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State all have strong academic research commitments. Clemson is the only modest outlier…strong undergrad educational reputation without a large research portfolio. IMHO, even amongst B1G-affiliated academics Clemson would be less controversial than Nebraska. The Southern wing of the ACC makes more media revenue than their SEC rivals, while also maintaining a viable path to elite recruits and football championships.
Except they likely wont have much of a media revenue advantage if any. We are passing, if we haven't passed, peak oil and travel will be more costly than ever. The coming supreme court ruling on pay for play is the odds-on favorite to kill off amateurism and institute pay for play, and SEC schools make more total revenue than any conference and have for years. And that event is the end of the connection between athletics and being an AAU school. And if Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson let the Big 10 into the Deep South the SEC would never schedule another single game with them. Between the 3 of them they can each play 2 games in the Deep South and one will be away. Other than that, their home slates will be filled with Northern schools that only their immediate fan base, which would shrink significantly from lack of t shirt fans, would support. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson have one game each which predicates all of their donations and each of those games is against an in-state SEC rival. Say bye-bye to your donation games. Miami is unique. So far away it doesn't impact the SEC much so I don't think they matter so much.
And where do you think Southern recruits will go? To the conference where they family and friends can watch them play regularly, and close by. To the conference which places more players on NFL rosters than any other. To the conference that has dominated championships for the past two decades plus.
IMO, the right adds could be the difference in continued growth of media payouts. Also, it’s not necessary to have that level of acrimony about realignment decisions. Non-P2 programs are seeking conference upgrades. While the SEC and B1G are also trying to create new value. Sometimes the best decision is to move away from old paradigms (e.g., B1G = AAU or SEC = Southern hegemony) and focus on needs to create win-win solutions.
In a P2 world, the B1G needs more programs with on-field football success. Alabama, Georgia and SEC programs are not available, so the B1G goes after the closest alternatives with championship caliber football. The ACC’s southern wing are much more valuable if they align with the B1G.
The ACC’s southern wing is also dilutive in the new SEC. Conference competition is a zero sum game, Clemson success will adversely impact South Carolina (GT in the SEC won’t help UGA, and FSU/UF has the same dynamic). After the OUT expansion, many SEC programs are at risk of losing brand value because conference wins will be harder to achieve. The more valuable long-term growth options for the SEC (and ESPN) are programs like UNC, Kansas, Duke or UVa.
Stopping the annual in-state rivalry is possible but unnecessary. Arkansas is the best example of a program that lost its critical annual rivalries after realignment. Arkansas was a national power that depended on access to Texas recruits in the old SWC, and has had to gradually build back. If the rivalries are meaningful to the state and fans, preventing these games will be a Pyrrhic victory for the SEC.
What hurt Arkansas was our former Chancellor kept screwing up athletics that it got him, Frank Broyles, and Houston Nutt all fired in 2007. Too bad he was allowed to hire the new AD Jeff Long, who was run out of here and Kansas too not long after.
This excellent point has been made before, but it can't be overstated. I imagine breaking into the South is a very high priority for the B1G but they've spread themselves pretty thin. How do they shore up the West (assuming they don't want stop at L.A.) and also add enough valuable Southern teams to make it work? I don't see how they can do it in the usual "small bites". Maybe they're good with just finding a way to entice UVA/UNC/Duke/? and stopping there. It would look great on the portfolio but maybe not on the P&L sheet or long-term risk assessment.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - schmolik - 04-21-2023 09:30 AM
(04-21-2023 07:56 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(04-20-2023 05:34 PM)Porcine Wrote:(04-20-2023 01:54 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:25 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: If only Notre Dame wanted to join a conference. They could be kingmakers plus get revenge over the bigotry of Fielding Yost.
More likely, Notre Dame sticks to its independent core. They ride the ACC train as long as possible. Assuming football is 75+% of revenues, the SEC continues its championship dominance and the ACC destabilizes…then ND will eventually negotiate a partial deal with the B1G. Michigan and Ohio State will adapt the guiding principles of the B1G.
In a world were the B1G is threatened due to lack of football depth, they can use their media financial payouts advantage to entice programs with proven championship caliber teams. They could expand with ND partial, plus Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech. Underneath the bravado of AAU membership, the fundamental interest is in promoting academic research. ND, Miami, Georgia Tech and Florida State all have strong academic research commitments. Clemson is the only modest outlier…strong undergrad educational reputation without a large research portfolio. IMHO, even amongst B1G-affiliated academics Clemson would be less controversial than Nebraska. The Southern wing of the ACC makes more media revenue than their SEC rivals, while also maintaining a viable path to elite recruits and football championships.
Except they likely wont have much of a media revenue advantage if any. We are passing, if we haven't passed, peak oil and travel will be more costly than ever. The coming supreme court ruling on pay for play is the odds-on favorite to kill off amateurism and institute pay for play, and SEC schools make more total revenue than any conference and have for years. And that event is the end of the connection between athletics and being an AAU school. And if Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson let the Big 10 into the Deep South the SEC would never schedule another single game with them. Between the 3 of them they can each play 2 games in the Deep South and one will be away. Other than that, their home slates will be filled with Northern schools that only their immediate fan base, which would shrink significantly from lack of t shirt fans, would support. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson have one game each which predicates all of their donations and each of those games is against an in-state SEC rival. Say bye-bye to your donation games. Miami is unique. So far away it doesn't impact the SEC much so I don't think they matter so much.
And where do you think Southern recruits will go? To the conference where they family and friends can watch them play regularly, and close by. To the conference which places more players on NFL rosters than any other. To the conference that has dominated championships for the past two decades plus.
IMO, the right adds could be the difference in continued growth of media payouts. Also, it’s not necessary to have that level of acrimony about realignment decisions. Non-P2 programs are seeking conference upgrades. While the SEC and B1G are also trying to create new value. Sometimes the best decision is to move away from old paradigms (e.g., B1G = AAU or SEC = Southern hegemony) and focus on needs to create win-win solutions.
In a P2 world, the B1G needs more programs with on-field football success. Alabama, Georgia and SEC programs are not available, so the B1G goes after the closest alternatives with championship caliber football. The ACC’s southern wing are much more valuable if they align with the B1G.
The ACC’s southern wing is also dilutive in the new SEC. Conference competition is a zero sum game, Clemson success will adversely impact South Carolina (GT in the SEC won’t help UGA, and FSU/UF has the same dynamic). After the OUT expansion, many SEC programs are at risk of losing brand value because conference wins will be harder to achieve. The more valuable long-term growth options for the SEC (and ESPN) are programs like UNC, Kansas, Duke or UVa.
Stopping the annual in-state rivalry is possible but unnecessary. Arkansas is the best example of a program that lost its critical annual rivalries after realignment. Arkansas was a national power that depended on access to Texas recruits in the old SWC, and has had to gradually build back. If the rivalries are meaningful to the state and fans, preventing these games will be a Pyrrhic victory for the SEC.
What hurt Arkansas was our former Chancellor kept screwing up athletics that it got him, Frank Broyles, and Houston Nutt all fired in 2007. Too bad he was allowed to hire the new AD Jeff Long, who was run out of here and Kansas too not long after.
This excellent point has been made before, but it can't be overstated. I imagine breaking into the South is a very high priority for the B1G but they've spread themselves pretty thin. How do they shore up the West (assuming they don't want stop at L.A.) and also add enough valuable Southern teams to make it work? I don't see how they can do it in the usual "small bites". Maybe they're good with just finding a way to entice UVA/UNC/Duke/? and stopping there. It would look great on the portfolio but maybe not on the P&L sheet or long-term risk assessment.
Make a push for Florida State and hope that the SEC feels they don't need a second Florida school or Florida resists hard enough. As much of a Big Ten homer I am, I don't think for a second that FSU would ever choose the Big Ten over the SEC. But if the SEC doesn't want FSU absolutely try to get them. If the SEC gets Florida State, try for Miami, I highly doubt the SEC would take both Florida State and Miami. I'd consider UCF if I was the Big Ten although they might be pushing it academically and I'd want to see if they can compete football wise in the Big 12. They have a huge student body which would lead to a huge alumni base in 20-30 years.
If the Big Ten gets a footing in Florida, that would be big.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - JRsec - 04-21-2023 10:40 AM
(04-21-2023 09:30 AM)schmolik Wrote:The SEC absolutely wants a second Florida school. The reason is the whole slate of conference members want games in Florida and the Gators only have 2 slots left after playing divisional games annually and saving their OOC P game for FSU.(04-21-2023 07:56 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(04-20-2023 05:34 PM)Porcine Wrote:(04-20-2023 01:54 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-19-2023 10:47 AM)JRsec Wrote: Except they likely wont have much of a media revenue advantage if any. We are passing, if we haven't passed, peak oil and travel will be more costly than ever. The coming supreme court ruling on pay for play is the odds-on favorite to kill off amateurism and institute pay for play, and SEC schools make more total revenue than any conference and have for years. And that event is the end of the connection between athletics and being an AAU school. And if Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson let the Big 10 into the Deep South the SEC would never schedule another single game with them. Between the 3 of them they can each play 2 games in the Deep South and one will be away. Other than that, their home slates will be filled with Northern schools that only their immediate fan base, which would shrink significantly from lack of t shirt fans, would support. Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson have one game each which predicates all of their donations and each of those games is against an in-state SEC rival. Say bye-bye to your donation games. Miami is unique. So far away it doesn't impact the SEC much so I don't think they matter so much.
And where do you think Southern recruits will go? To the conference where they family and friends can watch them play regularly, and close by. To the conference which places more players on NFL rosters than any other. To the conference that has dominated championships for the past two decades plus.
IMO, the right adds could be the difference in continued growth of media payouts. Also, it’s not necessary to have that level of acrimony about realignment decisions. Non-P2 programs are seeking conference upgrades. While the SEC and B1G are also trying to create new value. Sometimes the best decision is to move away from old paradigms (e.g., B1G = AAU or SEC = Southern hegemony) and focus on needs to create win-win solutions.
In a P2 world, the B1G needs more programs with on-field football success. Alabama, Georgia and SEC programs are not available, so the B1G goes after the closest alternatives with championship caliber football. The ACC’s southern wing are much more valuable if they align with the B1G.
The ACC’s southern wing is also dilutive in the new SEC. Conference competition is a zero sum game, Clemson success will adversely impact South Carolina (GT in the SEC won’t help UGA, and FSU/UF has the same dynamic). After the OUT expansion, many SEC programs are at risk of losing brand value because conference wins will be harder to achieve. The more valuable long-term growth options for the SEC (and ESPN) are programs like UNC, Kansas, Duke or UVa.
Stopping the annual in-state rivalry is possible but unnecessary. Arkansas is the best example of a program that lost its critical annual rivalries after realignment. Arkansas was a national power that depended on access to Texas recruits in the old SWC, and has had to gradually build back. If the rivalries are meaningful to the state and fans, preventing these games will be a Pyrrhic victory for the SEC.
What hurt Arkansas was our former Chancellor kept screwing up athletics that it got him, Frank Broyles, and Houston Nutt all fired in 2007. Too bad he was allowed to hire the new AD Jeff Long, who was run out of here and Kansas too not long after.
This excellent point has been made before, but it can't be overstated. I imagine breaking into the South is a very high priority for the B1G but they've spread themselves pretty thin. How do they shore up the West (assuming they don't want stop at L.A.) and also add enough valuable Southern teams to make it work? I don't see how they can do it in the usual "small bites". Maybe they're good with just finding a way to entice UVA/UNC/Duke/? and stopping there. It would look great on the portfolio but maybe not on the P&L sheet or long-term risk assessment.
Make a push for Florida State and hope that the SEC feels they don't need a second Florida school or Florida resists hard enough. As much of a Big Ten homer I am, I don't think for a second that FSU would ever choose the Big Ten over the SEC. But if the SEC doesn't want FSU absolutely try to get them. If the SEC gets Florida State, try for Miami, I highly doubt the SEC would take both Florida State and Miami. I'd consider UCF if I was the Big Ten although they might be pushing it academically and I'd want to see if they can compete football wise in the Big 12. They have a huge student body which would lead to a huge alumni base in 20-30 years.
If the Big Ten gets a footing in Florida, that would be big.
The Gators are also afraid that realignment will eventually cost them the FSU and each school predicates donations upon the ability to obtain a ticket to that contest. This is why Florida has twice nominated Florida State for membership.
So, preconditions #1 and #2 are operative in favor of FSU to the SEC.
You could be right that the SEC may not have interest in Miami. What breaks in Miami's favor for SEC membership is that they occupy a part of the state where the SEC reach is weak. And with the SEC expanding to 20 only having 2 Florida schools makes games in Florida just as difficult as it is now with 1 school there. There would be reasons to consider Miami which would be purely logistical in nature.
Miami is however likely closer to AAU status than Florida State tough it would be close. The Big 10 has another option and it is not Central Florida. South Florida is a school I've been eyeing for the SEC for a long time. It has reach throughout the Central portion of Florida and into the panhandle region. Their academic trajectory in research is the strongest outside of UF's. While their sports development is lagging it is mostly due to the priorities of the University being academically oriented and the allocation of funds reflecting that.
I've long thought that USF would eventually offer the SEC more than FSU could offer in the way of reach into the state, but believe that event horizon to be at least 20 years out. If team sports survives the economic and demographic shifts coming USF will one day be sought by both the SEC and Big 10. So as Yoda would say, "There is another."
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - XLance - 04-21-2023 11:53 AM
I would imagine that ESPN could find a a creative way to buy Florida State out of the ACC's GOR.
Let's see: a payment of $5 Million per team per year for the life of the contract would be $910 Million Stretched out over 13 years should cover the GOR. Of course Florida State would still be on the hook for the exit fee
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - GarnetAndBlue - 04-21-2023 02:14 PM
(04-21-2023 11:53 AM)XLance Wrote: I would imagine that ESPN could find a a creative way to buy Florida State out of the ACC's GOR.
Let's see: a payment of $5 Million per team per year for the life of the contract would be $910 Million Stretched out over 13 years should cover the GOR. Of course Florida State would still be on the hook for the exit fee
Knock knock jokes are slightly more entertaining than your variations of the "write a check" line.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - GarnetAndBlue - 04-21-2023 02:30 PM
(04-21-2023 10:40 AM)JRsec Wrote:(04-21-2023 09:30 AM)schmolik Wrote:The SEC absolutely wants a second Florida school. The reason is the whole slate of conference members want games in Florida and the Gators only have 2 slots left after playing divisional games annually and saving their OOC P game for FSU.(04-21-2023 07:56 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(04-20-2023 05:34 PM)Porcine Wrote:(04-20-2023 01:54 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: IMO, the right adds could be the difference in continued growth of media payouts. Also, it’s not necessary to have that level of acrimony about realignment decisions. Non-P2 programs are seeking conference upgrades. While the SEC and B1G are also trying to create new value. Sometimes the best decision is to move away from old paradigms (e.g., B1G = AAU or SEC = Southern hegemony) and focus on needs to create win-win solutions.
In a P2 world, the B1G needs more programs with on-field football success. Alabama, Georgia and SEC programs are not available, so the B1G goes after the closest alternatives with championship caliber football. The ACC’s southern wing are much more valuable if they align with the B1G.
The ACC’s southern wing is also dilutive in the new SEC. Conference competition is a zero sum game, Clemson success will adversely impact South Carolina (GT in the SEC won’t help UGA, and FSU/UF has the same dynamic). After the OUT expansion, many SEC programs are at risk of losing brand value because conference wins will be harder to achieve. The more valuable long-term growth options for the SEC (and ESPN) are programs like UNC, Kansas, Duke or UVa.
Stopping the annual in-state rivalry is possible but unnecessary. Arkansas is the best example of a program that lost its critical annual rivalries after realignment. Arkansas was a national power that depended on access to Texas recruits in the old SWC, and has had to gradually build back. If the rivalries are meaningful to the state and fans, preventing these games will be a Pyrrhic victory for the SEC.
What hurt Arkansas was our former Chancellor kept screwing up athletics that it got him, Frank Broyles, and Houston Nutt all fired in 2007. Too bad he was allowed to hire the new AD Jeff Long, who was run out of here and Kansas too not long after.
This excellent point has been made before, but it can't be overstated. I imagine breaking into the South is a very high priority for the B1G but they've spread themselves pretty thin. How do they shore up the West (assuming they don't want stop at L.A.) and also add enough valuable Southern teams to make it work? I don't see how they can do it in the usual "small bites". Maybe they're good with just finding a way to entice UVA/UNC/Duke/? and stopping there. It would look great on the portfolio but maybe not on the P&L sheet or long-term risk assessment.
Make a push for Florida State and hope that the SEC feels they don't need a second Florida school or Florida resists hard enough. As much of a Big Ten homer I am, I don't think for a second that FSU would ever choose the Big Ten over the SEC. But if the SEC doesn't want FSU absolutely try to get them. If the SEC gets Florida State, try for Miami, I highly doubt the SEC would take both Florida State and Miami. I'd consider UCF if I was the Big Ten although they might be pushing it academically and I'd want to see if they can compete football wise in the Big 12. They have a huge student body which would lead to a huge alumni base in 20-30 years.
If the Big Ten gets a footing in Florida, that would be big.
The Gators are also afraid that realignment will eventually cost them the FSU and each school predicates donations upon the ability to obtain a ticket to that contest. This is why Florida has twice nominated Florida State for membership.
So, preconditions #1 and #2 are operative in favor of FSU to the SEC.
You could be right that the SEC may not have interest in Miami. What breaks in Miami's favor for SEC membership is that they occupy a part of the state where the SEC reach is weak. And with the SEC expanding to 20 only having 2 Florida schools makes games in Florida just as difficult as it is now with 1 school there. There would be reasons to consider Miami which would be purely logistical in nature.
Miami is however likely closer to AAU status than Florida State tough it would be close. The Big 10 has another option and it is not Central Florida. South Florida is a school I've been eyeing for the SEC for a long time. It has reach throughout the Central portion of Florida and into the panhandle region. Their academic trajectory in research is the strongest outside of UF's. While their sports development is lagging it is mostly due to the priorities of the University being academically oriented and the allocation of funds reflecting that.
I've long thought that USF would eventually offer the SEC more than FSU could offer in the way of reach into the state, but believe that event horizon to be at least 20 years out. If team sports survives the economic and demographic shifts coming USF will one day be sought by both the SEC and Big 10. So as Yoda would say, "There is another."
I think the foresight on USF might have been warranted 20 years ago. They somewhat hit a plateau institutionally (following a rapid rise in the late 90's and early 00's). Athletically they've taken a bit of a dive since then...and are certainly in UCF's football and brand shadow. They just haven't established themselves even regionally so it's going to take a long time before they're on the national radar (perhaps too long for what's left of football's lifespan). FSU's academic rise has been the most meteoric in the past decade as an institution, surprisingly. The massive current and upcoming investments in FSU Health and locking down the coveted panhandle has it very well positioned for coming decades. I expect FSU's research expenditures - in terms of % growth - to be #1 in the state over the next decade. We'll see.
The B1G has a lot to overcome in pulling FSU away from the ESPN/SEC/ACC. Otherwise, I think FSU would be very very intrigued by an offer, especially if it included a few other valuable southern ACC schools (UNC, Miami, etc). The SEC is obviously the smart bet.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - JRsec - 04-21-2023 03:03 PM
(04-21-2023 02:30 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(04-21-2023 10:40 AM)JRsec Wrote:(04-21-2023 09:30 AM)schmolik Wrote:The SEC absolutely wants a second Florida school. The reason is the whole slate of conference members want games in Florida and the Gators only have 2 slots left after playing divisional games annually and saving their OOC P game for FSU.(04-21-2023 07:56 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(04-20-2023 05:34 PM)Porcine Wrote: What hurt Arkansas was our former Chancellor kept screwing up athletics that it got him, Frank Broyles, and Houston Nutt all fired in 2007. Too bad he was allowed to hire the new AD Jeff Long, who was run out of here and Kansas too not long after.
This excellent point has been made before, but it can't be overstated. I imagine breaking into the South is a very high priority for the B1G but they've spread themselves pretty thin. How do they shore up the West (assuming they don't want stop at L.A.) and also add enough valuable Southern teams to make it work? I don't see how they can do it in the usual "small bites". Maybe they're good with just finding a way to entice UVA/UNC/Duke/? and stopping there. It would look great on the portfolio but maybe not on the P&L sheet or long-term risk assessment.
Make a push for Florida State and hope that the SEC feels they don't need a second Florida school or Florida resists hard enough. As much of a Big Ten homer I am, I don't think for a second that FSU would ever choose the Big Ten over the SEC. But if the SEC doesn't want FSU absolutely try to get them. If the SEC gets Florida State, try for Miami, I highly doubt the SEC would take both Florida State and Miami. I'd consider UCF if I was the Big Ten although they might be pushing it academically and I'd want to see if they can compete football wise in the Big 12. They have a huge student body which would lead to a huge alumni base in 20-30 years.
If the Big Ten gets a footing in Florida, that would be big.
The Gators are also afraid that realignment will eventually cost them the FSU and each school predicates donations upon the ability to obtain a ticket to that contest. This is why Florida has twice nominated Florida State for membership.
So, preconditions #1 and #2 are operative in favor of FSU to the SEC.
You could be right that the SEC may not have interest in Miami. What breaks in Miami's favor for SEC membership is that they occupy a part of the state where the SEC reach is weak. And with the SEC expanding to 20 only having 2 Florida schools makes games in Florida just as difficult as it is now with 1 school there. There would be reasons to consider Miami which would be purely logistical in nature.
Miami is however likely closer to AAU status than Florida State tough it would be close. The Big 10 has another option and it is not Central Florida. South Florida is a school I've been eyeing for the SEC for a long time. It has reach throughout the Central portion of Florida and into the panhandle region. Their academic trajectory in research is the strongest outside of UF's. While their sports development is lagging it is mostly due to the priorities of the University being academically oriented and the allocation of funds reflecting that.
I've long thought that USF would eventually offer the SEC more than FSU could offer in the way of reach into the state, but believe that event horizon to be at least 20 years out. If team sports survives the economic and demographic shifts coming USF will one day be sought by both the SEC and Big 10. So as Yoda would say, "There is another."
I think the foresight on USF might have been warranted 20 years ago. They somewhat hit a plateau institutionally (following a rapid rise in the late 90's and early 00's). Athletically they've taken a bit of a dive since then...and are certainly in UCF's football and brand shadow. They just haven't established themselves even regionally so it's going to take a long time before they're on the national radar (perhaps too long for what's left of football's lifespan). FSU's academic rise has been the most meteoric in the past decade as an institution, surprisingly. The massive current and upcoming investments in FSU Health and locking down the coveted panhandle has it very well positioned for coming decades. I expect FSU's research expenditures - in terms of % growth - to be #1 in the state over the next decade. We'll see.
The B1G has a lot to overcome in pulling FSU away from the ESPN/SEC/ACC. Otherwise, I think FSU would be very very intrigued by an offer, especially if it included a few other valuable southern ACC schools (UNC, Miami, etc). The SEC is obviously the smart bet.
I can't see the SEC or ESPN letting that brand go to FOX and the Big 10. Georgia Tech, Miami, and Virginia are the Big 10's best bets to place. UNC will be a tough pull despite the opinions of two local baby (woad) blue posters. Clemson if paired with FSU has only one direction to go. I'd even say paired with UNC.
It really will come down to whether we wind up with 20 or 24. At 20 the Big 10 is pretty committed to PAC expansion if they are going to make it pay. The SEC could easily move to 20 with the ACC, or 3 ACC and Kanas.
That approach doesn't kill anyone but the PAC 12. The Big 12 and ACC would reload and play on.
At 24 each we are talking two dead conferences and a third which will be a catch all.
Given the penchant for smaller moves, profitability, and restrained liability, I'm leaning more towards 20 for now.
With ND the Big 10 can expand with Stanford, Oregon, Washington and ND. Without ND it would have to be Stanford, Oregon, Washington and either Kansas or Colorado to make the divisions, and I think we keep them, work out.
Similarly, the SEC could add Clemson, F.S.U., UNC and UVa or Va Tech and really cover everything they need market and brand wise. Let's say that if the ACC looks to live on after Clemson and FSU depart, we could see the SEC add Miami and Kansas and lock down Florida while picking up a key rival for Kentucky and Missouri. They've insured the deep South branding of the SEC.
At that point Duke, UNC, Virginia and Ga Tech are not a concern unless the Big 10 wants to move to 24. And while those losses would be felt, Ga Tech is low value to the SEC because UGa carries 51% of Atlanta and 85% of the rest of the state, and N.C. State and Virginia Tech carry enough of those two states to work for us. Really the only loss is a small % of North Carolina and Status adds. The money wouldn't be impacted by much. At that point perhaps the SEC considers Louisville which adds financially and picks up another Western addition.
We'll see, but I think we both move to 20 next.
If I'm wrong, and the number is 18 it is a healthy place to stop as well.
Oregon and Washington are the best remaining PAC values. Florida State and Clemson would be roughly equivalent with a slight edge to the Big 10 in total valuation. Kansas and FSU to the SEC would be an edge to the SEC.
None of those moves actually kill any conference, though the PAC's vitals would decline further and likely they would implode.
RE: Notre Dame, Big 10 or SEC? The Trajectory of the Two Strongest Conferences - XLance - 04-21-2023 10:21 PM
(04-21-2023 02:14 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(04-21-2023 11:53 AM)XLance Wrote: I would imagine that ESPN could find a a creative way to buy Florida State out of the ACC's GOR.
Let's see: a payment of $5 Million per team per year for the life of the contract would be $910 Million Stretched out over 13 years should cover the GOR. Of course Florida State would still be on the hook for the exit fee
Knock knock jokes are slightly more entertaining than your variations of the "write a check" line.
Somebody is going to pay if the 'noles leave early. The ACC will take cash.