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RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - XLance - 04-22-2023 01:32 PM
As enticing as the west coast is, it just doesn't make sense to have members on the coasts with nothing in the middle.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 04-22-2023 07:05 PM
(04-22-2023 01:32 PM)XLance Wrote: As enticing as the west coast is, it just doesn't make sense to have members on the coasts with nothing in the middle.
SMU is in the middle.
Swap out Utah for Colorado - that's middle-ish (at least, when they were in the Big 8 and Big XII, they were considered the Western edge of "the middle")
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - SouthernConfBoy - 04-22-2023 08:53 PM
Well they do call it fly over country for a reason.
The north part of the middle has Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, and KSU. Having spent time in Minneapolis, Des Moines, Iowa City, Lincoln, Omaha, and KC I can attest to one and all you have not missed on damn thing.
A little further down is Mizzou, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Colorado, Colorado State, and Air Force. Colorado is nice, everyone should visit. The rest of it is either flat, poor, or vacant.
Way down south you get to SMU, TCU, Baylor, Texas, TAMU, Oklahoma, TT, Houston. Texas, TAMU, and OU are taken. TCU and Houston are probably taken. Are we going to call Rice and Tulane the middle?
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - XLance - 04-23-2023 02:27 PM
If the ACC added only one team, would that be enough for ESPN to offer an annual increase to all schools (even if the joining school had to take a reduced share for a time)?
Would scheduling be easier with a 15 team conference vs. 14?
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - random asian guy - 04-23-2023 07:23 PM
(04-23-2023 02:27 PM)XLance Wrote: If the ACC added only one team, would that be enough for ESPN to offer an annual increase to all schools (even if the joining school had to take a reduced share for a time)?
Would scheduling be easier with a 15 team conference vs. 14?
It depends on school. If the incoming school is reasonably valuable, I guess ESPN will not decrease the payout. If that school is located in a big state, we can expect a slight increase in the ACCN.
With 15 teams, the ACC would go with 2-6-6 instead of 3-5-5.
Which school are you looking at? We don’t need to go after an AAC school for a sole addition.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - SouthernConfBoy - 04-23-2023 08:10 PM
At 15 with a decent addition for 15 I would expect 4-5-5
Just for example lets assume Tulane or SMU. A southern school in a large southern metro.
Either one of them could have the following as annual games:
SMU or T - Duke, GT, Louisville, and Syracuse
FSU - Miami, Clemson, Louisville, and Syracuse
Clemson - FSU, NC State, GT, and VT
Miami - FSU, Pitt, Syracuse, and BC
Syracuse - SMU or T, Pitt, UM, and BC
NC State - Clemson, UNC, Duke, WF
UNC - Duke, NC State, UVa, WF
WF - UNC, NC State, Louisville, and VT
VT - UVa, WF, Clemson, and BC
BC - Syracuse, Pitt, UM, VT
GT - Clemson, Duke, SMU or T, Louisville
Louis - FSU, GT, WF, SMU or T
UVa - VT, UNC, Pitt, BC
Pitt - VT, Syracuse, Miami, BC
Duke, UNC, NCSU, GT, Louis or T
SMU or Tulane is not good enough to match them annually with Clemson, Miami, or FSU, but they both make for a good road trip especially for a well to do alumni base.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 04-23-2023 08:37 PM
(04-23-2023 08:10 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: At 15 with a decent addition for 15 I would expect 4-5-5
Again, you CANNOT have both an odd number of teams AND and odd number of games. The product of teams X games must be divisible by two - so, at least one of them MUST be even.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - SouthernConfBoy - 04-23-2023 08:45 PM
(04-23-2023 08:37 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:10 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: At 15 with a decent addition for 15 I would expect 4-5-5
Again, you CANNOT have both an odd number of teams AND and odd number of games. The product of teams X games must be divisible by two - so, at least one of them MUST be even.
15 teams can certainly play 9 league games of which 4 are games that are played every year. More importantly it's way past time to treat the ND games as league contests for the purposes of standing.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 04-24-2023 06:37 AM
(04-23-2023 08:45 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:37 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:10 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: At 15 with a decent addition for 15 I would expect 4-5-5
Again, you CANNOT have both an odd number of teams AND and odd number of games. The product of teams X games must be divisible by two - so, at least one of them MUST be even.
15 teams can certainly play 9 league games of which 4 are games that are played every year. More importantly it's way past time to treat the ND games as league contests for the purposes of standing.
No, math is math. 15 X 9 = 135 team-games. Since each actual game involves TWO teams, you end up with 135 / 2 = 67.5 conference games. What do you propose doing with the half game?
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 04-24-2023 06:39 AM
http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2023/04/23/colorado-chancellor-speaks-on-pac-12-media-deal-via-usatoday/
Quote:Sunday USA Today reported on comments from the Colorado Chancellor, and some statements could be not more clear.
“there’s a very good possibility” the next deal will bring in per-school revenues ranking third among the Power 5 conferences, ahead of the Big 12 and Atlantic Coast conferences.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Garrettabc - 04-24-2023 06:41 AM
If they can get that kind of money, good on them.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 04-24-2023 06:43 AM
Maybe someone will point out an error in my math, but I don't think so.
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2023/04/acc-vs-big-xii-revenue-2024-est.html
By my calculations, when the new Big XII contract kicks in, the ACC will be ahead by about $11M per school. Is that really right? Because I thought the Big XII was just going to absorb both the ACC and the Pac-12 and be the undisputed P3...
2031 looks like the ACC's chance to poach the Big XII!
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - XLance - 04-24-2023 07:34 AM
(04-23-2023 08:37 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:10 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: At 15 with a decent addition for 15 I would expect 4-5-5
Again, you CANNOT have both an odd number of teams AND and odd number of games. The product of teams X games must be divisible by two - so, at least one of them MUST be even.
It appears as if it would be necessary to add two schools "if" the ACC were going to add anyone at all.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 04-24-2023 07:36 AM
(04-24-2023 07:34 AM)XLance Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:37 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:10 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: At 15 with a decent addition for 15 I would expect 4-5-5
Again, you CANNOT have both an odd number of teams AND and odd number of games. The product of teams X games must be divisible by two - so, at least one of them MUST be even.
It appears as if it would be necessary to add two schools "if" the ACC were going to add anyone at all.
Add pairs of schools - OR - stay at 8 games - OR - jump straight to 10 games (unlikely)
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - ren.hoek - 04-24-2023 08:45 AM
(04-24-2023 07:34 AM)XLance Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:37 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:10 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: At 15 with a decent addition for 15 I would expect 4-5-5
Again, you CANNOT have both an odd number of teams AND and odd number of games. The product of teams X games must be divisible by two - so, at least one of them MUST be even.
It appears as if it would be necessary to add two schools "if" the ACC were going to add anyone at all.
We don't need to add 2 schools. We can add 1 and not be forced to invite an ugly stepsister to the dance and call it a day. At 15 teams, you can have 4 permanent and 5 rotating. I know it doesn't seem possible with an odd number, but visualize it like this - have the 15 head coaches stand in a circle. The 2 on your left and 2 on your right are your permanent rivals. Done.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 04-24-2023 08:52 AM
(04-24-2023 08:45 AM)ren.hoek Wrote:(04-24-2023 07:34 AM)XLance Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:37 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:10 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: At 15 with a decent addition for 15 I would expect 4-5-5
Again, you CANNOT have both an odd number of teams AND and odd number of games. The product of teams X games must be divisible by two - so, at least one of them MUST be even.
It appears as if it would be necessary to add two schools "if" the ACC were going to add anyone at all.
We don't need to add 2 schools. We can add 1 and not be forced to invite an ugly stepsister to the dance and call it a day. At 15 teams, you can have 4 permanent and 5 rotating. I know it doesn't seem possible with an odd number, but visualize it like this - have the 15 head coaches stand in a circle. The 2 on your left and 2 on your right are your permanent rivals. Done.
No, you're wrong. It doesn't just SEEM impossible, it IS impossible to have PAIRS of teams playing each other when both the #teams and the #games is odd. You'll always end up with one team without an opponent!
Since so many of you don't believe it, I challenge you to work out the simplest possible example: 3 teams play 1 game each -- it can't be done.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - swardy76 - 04-24-2023 11:21 AM
(04-24-2023 08:52 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-24-2023 08:45 AM)ren.hoek Wrote:(04-24-2023 07:34 AM)XLance Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:37 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:(04-23-2023 08:10 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: At 15 with a decent addition for 15 I would expect 4-5-5
Again, you CANNOT have both an odd number of teams AND and odd number of games. The product of teams X games must be divisible by two - so, at least one of them MUST be even.
It appears as if it would be necessary to add two schools "if" the ACC were going to add anyone at all.
We don't need to add 2 schools. We can add 1 and not be forced to invite an ugly stepsister to the dance and call it a day. At 15 teams, you can have 4 permanent and 5 rotating. I know it doesn't seem possible with an odd number, but visualize it like this - have the 15 head coaches stand in a circle. The 2 on your left and 2 on your right are your permanent rivals. Done.
No, you're wrong. It doesn't just SEEM impossible, it IS impossible to have PAIRS of teams playing each other when both the #teams and the #games is odd. You'll always end up with one team without an opponent!
Since so many of you don't believe it, I challenge you to work out the simplest possible example: 3 teams play 1 game each -- it can't be done.
Maybe another way to understand it - If there are an odd number of teams in the conference, it is impossible for all of them to play conference games in the same week. One team would have to play out of conference or have a bye week. The solution is to have an even number of conference games.
Assuming no out-of-conference games and a different team on bye, after nine weeks, six teams would have completed their conference games, and nine would still need one more game. In the tenth week, eight of the remaining nine teams would play their ninth game. But there would still be one team left without an eligible opponent.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - random asian guy - 04-24-2023 12:48 PM
The number of games / scheduling is a secondary concern. We need to find the school(s) that ESPN would offer an annual increase to all of existing ACC schools first. With the B12 locked up, the only possible schools that ESPN *may* consider are in West.
The target school should
1) Have strong football brands (Oregon, maybe Utah) AND/OR
2) Be located in a populous new state (Stanford, Washington, ASU, and SMU).
Below is the list of population by state.
State July 1, 2022 (est.)
California 39,029,342
Texas 30,029,572
Florida 22,244,823
New York 19,677,151
Pennsylvania 12,972,008
Illinois 12,582,032
Ohio 11,756,058
Georgia 10,912,876
North Carolina 10,698,973
Michigan 10,034,113
New Jersey 9,261,699
Virginia 8,683,619
Washington 7,785,786
Arizona 7,359,197
Tennessee 7,051,339
Massachusetts 6,981,974
Indiana 6,833,037
Missouri 6,177,957
Maryland 6,164,660
Wisconsin 5,892,539
Colorado 5,839,926
Minnesota 5,717,184
South Carolina 5,282,634
Alabama 5,074,296
Louisiana 4,590,241
Kentucky 4,512,310
Oregon 4,240,137
Oklahoma 4,019,800
Connecticut 3,626,205
Utah 3,380,800
Puerto Rico 3,221,789
Iowa 3,200,517
Nevada 3,177,772
Arkansas 3,045,637
Mississippi 2,940,057
Kansas 2,937,150
New Mexico 2,113,344
Nebraska 1,967,923
Idaho 1,939,033
West Virginia 1,775,156
Hawaii 1,440,196
New Hampshire 1,395,231
Maine 1,385,340
Montana 1,122,867
Rhode Island 1,093,734
Delaware 1,018,396
South Dakota 909,824
North Dakota 779,261
Alaska 733,583
District of Columbia 671,803
Vermont 647,064
Wyoming 581,381
The ACC average is 7.2 million, which is below Arizona but higher than Tennessee.
The schools XLance mentioned before:
Temple, USF: Not strong brand, no new state
Tulane, Navy: Not strong brand, below average state population
SMU is the only school that may potentially increase the revenue only because it's in Dallas. But man, if we add SMU now, Phillips and the ACC leaders would surely look stupid on passing TCU in 2021.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Wahoowa84 - 04-24-2023 02:12 PM
(04-24-2023 06:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Maybe someone will point out an error in my math, but I don't think so.
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2023/04/acc-vs-big-xii-revenue-2024-est.html
By my calculations, when the new Big XII contract kicks in, the ACC will be ahead by about $11M per school. Is that really right? Because I thought the Big XII was just going to absorb both the ACC and the Pac-12 and be the undisputed P3...
2031 looks like the ACC's chance to poach the Big XII!
Not sure that I get your comparison. I thought that $31.6M is the B12’s average expected media rights distribution starting in FY2024-2025. That shouldn’t be compared to the ACC total conference distribution (e.g., media rights plus CFP plus bowls & NCAA disbursements).
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 04-24-2023 02:47 PM
(04-24-2023 02:12 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-24-2023 06:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Maybe someone will point out an error in my math, but I don't think so.
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2023/04/acc-vs-big-xii-revenue-2024-est.html
By my calculations, when the new Big XII contract kicks in, the ACC will be ahead by about $11M per school. Is that really right? Because I thought the Big XII was just going to absorb both the ACC and the Pac-12 and be the undisputed P3...
2031 looks like the ACC's chance to poach the Big XII!
Not sure that I get your comparison. I thought that $31.6M is the B12’s average expected media rights distribution starting in FY2024-2025. That shouldn’t be compared to the ACC total conference distribution (e.g., media rights plus CFP plus bowls & NCAA disbursements).
I suppose that's possible, but I assumed that whatever the OP did for one he did for the other (when getting the $31M vs $36M numbers). All I did was make a tv-only adjustment to the ACC revenue of +$2M/yr, followed by a ratio adjustment since one takes out conference fees before distribution, the other afterwards -- mathematically, that should work either way, I think.