(01-26-2023 02:45 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 01:27 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 09:13 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 08:46 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(01-25-2023 07:59 PM)XLance Wrote:  ^^^^
This

The ACC's window to expand (vs backfill) is closed. There are no options left on the table that will get 3/4+ of the current ACC membership to vote in. So long as the ACC GoR is in place and the conference doesn't have attrition to open spots, there will be no new schools added.

I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss ESPN. If they want The ACC to expand they will make them an offer they can’t refuse.

Whether it be a full merger with The SEC, like JR and others have suggested, or some other plan, as long as ESPN’s plan increases the payout to a level closer to The SEC, The ACC will accept.

Well that kind of scenario always covers everything. If ESPN offers me $5M/year to move to Bristol CT and be a janitor for a year...I'll sign up.

Just back of napkin ballpark numbers for fun.... 14 schools (I'll leave ND out of it) x $10M extra per year X 13 years left on the GoR = $1.82 Billion ADDITIONAL payout by ESPN just to be nice and keep the ACC intact (and still not enough to put them near B1G/SEC!). Plus whatever the new team(s) get. And that kind of deal wouldn't even be enough for a GoR extension signature (that would obviously be required by ESPN). If you think the high value teams are going to sign up for ~$1M-2M a year extra...no way. Play around with the numbers and there's no way it works. The gap is way too big between what ESPN would pay and what the top ACC schools would sign up for. That's not even taking into consideration massive road blocks with trying to add a third or fourth FL school.

There's a reason the ACC hasn't expanded.

I think your argument is based on the assumption that high value schools want to leave the ACC and won’t vote for any expansion for a modest payout increase because if more schools sign the GoR it gets more difficult for the high value schools exit in the furue.

I don’t know whether your reasoning is correct. Even if it is, it’s probably only FSU which wants to get out so desperately that won’t vote for any expansion. I think the real voting block that won’t vote for an expasion for a modest pay increase is the tobacco road schools and their motives are entirely different from FSU’s.

(01-26-2023 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:42 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:04 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  Here is a fully merged 36:

East - ND, Miami, BC, Pitt, WVa, Syracuse
Atlantic - UVa, VT, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF
South - SC, Clemson, GT, UGa, UF, FSU
Southeast - Auburn, Bama, TN, Vandy, UK, Louisville
Gulf - Ole Miss, MSU, TAMU, LSU, Ark, Mizzou
South West, Texas, OU, Kansas, Colorado, TCU, Arizona

Ding, Ding, Ding, Winner, Winner, chicken dinner

1. You play your five for the division title.
2. Division title gets you to a 10/12 team playoff
3. You schedule 4-5 more out of this group
4. You play ball

This year ND, NC State, UGa, TN, LSU,and TCU win their divisions.

The top WC is Bama, followed by Clemson, then Texas, then FSU, then Ole Miss, then UNC or Pitt.

This would be considered the real playoff.

If the Big 10 sensed such a move, they would likely take the AAU schools in the PAC to keep pace. Colorado and Arizona would be two of those. Arizona State would be in play. I think the SEC would keep it closer to the vest. But if you take Texas Tech instead of Colorado then Arizona State is not too desperate of a reach.

Arizona State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech.

But this configuration doesn't help Texas separate its brand as well as they might like from some of the Texas schools.

Still if the revenue isn't forced to be the same the distinction may be enough.

Four divisions of eight is more concise:

Big East: Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Atlantic: Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Wake Forest

Southeast: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

*No Notre Dame then add West Virginia.

(01-26-2023 04:32 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(01-25-2023 07:26 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Not convinced that elevating USF is a wise move. USF recruits players from the same pool as the ACC’s media bell cows. We would also be exacerbating an ACC media weakness…too many schools from overlapping markets (we already have 4 programs vying for dominance of North Carolinians). USF doesn’t have enough brand value and carries a lot of shorter-term risks (e.g., mediocre football, insufficient resources).

FWIW, USF’s long-term potential makes more sense for the SEC.

I understand your argument, but I think comparing the 4 North Carolina schools to the 3 Florida schools (FSU, USF and Miami) is apples and oranges.

In NC, 3 of the schools are not only in the same state, but even the same DMA! and no school is in the largest DMA (Charlotte).

Meanwhile, FSU covers Northern Florida, Miami covers Southern Florida, but USF is needed to cover Central Florida.

(01-26-2023 07:24 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 04:32 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(01-25-2023 07:26 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Not convinced that elevating USF is a wise move. USF recruits players from the same pool as the ACC’s media bell cows. We would also be exacerbating an ACC media weakness…too many schools from overlapping markets (we already have 4 programs vying for dominance of North Carolinians). USF doesn’t have enough brand value and carries a lot of shorter-term risks (e.g., mediocre football, insufficient resources).

FWIW, USF’s long-term potential makes more sense for the SEC.

I understand your argument, but I think comparing the 4 North Carolina schools to the 3 Florida schools (FSU, USF and Miami) is apples and oranges.

In NC, 3 of the schools are not only in the same state, but even the same DMA! and no school is in the largest DMA (Charlotte).

Meanwhile, FSU covers Northern Florida, Miami covers Southern Florida, but USF is needed to cover Central Florida.

Although Florida has a larger population than North Carolina (and 3 programs is obviously preferable to 4 from the same state), it's the same dilemma. FSU recruits heavily in central Florida and relies on fans from the I-4 corridor. Other ACC members already access the state with games against FSU and/or Miami. Instead of expanding & growing the conference, we're diluting the same footprint with more members.

(01-26-2023 07:23 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:42 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:04 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  Here is a fully merged 36:

East - ND, Miami, BC, Pitt, WVa, Syracuse
Atlantic - UVa, VT, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF
South - SC, Clemson, GT, UGa, UF, FSU
Southeast - Auburn, Bama, TN, Vandy, UK, Louisville
Gulf - Ole Miss, MSU, TAMU, LSU, Ark, Mizzou
South West, Texas, OU, Kansas, Colorado, TCU, Arizona

Ding, Ding, Ding, Winner, Winner, chicken dinner

1. You play your five for the division title.
2. Division title gets you to a 10/12 team playoff
3. You schedule 4-5 more out of this group
4. You play ball

This year ND, NC State, UGa, TN, LSU,and TCU win their divisions.

The top WC is Bama, followed by Clemson, then Texas, then FSU, then Ole Miss, then UNC or Pitt.

This would be considered the real playoff.

If the Big 10 sensed such a move, they would likely take the AAU schools in the PAC to keep pace. Colorado and Arizona would be two of those. Arizona State would be in play. I think the SEC would keep it closer to the vest. But if you take Texas Tech instead of Colorado then Arizona State is not too desperate of a reach.

Arizona State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech.

But this configuration doesn't help Texas separate its brand as well as they might like from some of the Texas schools.

Still if the revenue isn't forced to be the same the distinction may be enough.

Four divisions of eight is more concise:

Big East: Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Atlantic: Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Wake Forest

Southeast: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

*No Notre Dame then add West Virginia.

I don't know how much UVA would like joining the BE division..... but that can be their punishment for forcing the ACC to take VT.

That southeast division is brutal : Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Everyone but GT and Vandy has won the NC in the last 25 years. Most have won multiple NCs.

(01-26-2023 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:42 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:04 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  Here is a fully merged 36:

East - ND, Miami, BC, Pitt, WVa, Syracuse
Atlantic - UVa, VT, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF
South - SC, Clemson, GT, UGa, UF, FSU
Southeast - Auburn, Bama, TN, Vandy, UK, Louisville
Gulf - Ole Miss, MSU, TAMU, LSU, Ark, Mizzou
South West, Texas, OU, Kansas, Colorado, TCU, Arizona

Ding, Ding, Ding, Winner, Winner, chicken dinner

1. You play your five for the division title.
2. Division title gets you to a 10/12 team playoff
3. You schedule 4-5 more out of this group
4. You play ball

This year ND, NC State, UGa, TN, LSU,and TCU win their divisions.

The top WC is Bama, followed by Clemson, then Texas, then FSU, then Ole Miss, then UNC or Pitt.

This would be considered the real playoff.

If the Big 10 sensed such a move, they would likely take the AAU schools in the PAC to keep pace. Colorado and Arizona would be two of those. Arizona State would be in play. I think the SEC would keep it closer to the vest. But if you take Texas Tech instead of Colorado then Arizona State is not too desperate of a reach.

Arizona State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech.

But this configuration doesn't help Texas separate its brand as well as they might like from some of the Texas schools.

Still if the revenue isn't forced to be the same the distinction may be enough.

Four divisions of eight is more concise:

Big East: Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Atlantic: Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Wake Forest

Southeast: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

*No Notre Dame then add West Virginia.

(01-26-2023 07:23 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:42 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:04 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  Here is a fully merged 36:

East - ND, Miami, BC, Pitt, WVa, Syracuse
Atlantic - UVa, VT, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF
South - SC, Clemson, GT, UGa, UF, FSU
Southeast - Auburn, Bama, TN, Vandy, UK, Louisville
Gulf - Ole Miss, MSU, TAMU, LSU, Ark, Mizzou
South West, Texas, OU, Kansas, Colorado, TCU, Arizona

Ding, Ding, Ding, Winner, Winner, chicken dinner

1. You play your five for the division title.
2. Division title gets you to a 10/12 team playoff
3. You schedule 4-5 more out of this group
4. You play ball

This year ND, NC State, UGa, TN, LSU,and TCU win their divisions.

The top WC is Bama, followed by Clemson, then Texas, then FSU, then Ole Miss, then UNC or Pitt.

This would be considered the real playoff.

If the Big 10 sensed such a move, they would likely take the AAU schools in the PAC to keep pace. Colorado and Arizona would be two of those. Arizona State would be in play. I think the SEC would keep it closer to the vest. But if you take Texas Tech instead of Colorado then Arizona State is not too desperate of a reach.

Arizona State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech.

But this configuration doesn't help Texas separate its brand as well as they might like from some of the Texas schools.

Still if the revenue isn't forced to be the same the distinction may be enough.

Four divisions of eight is more concise:

Big East: Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Atlantic: Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Wake Forest

Southeast: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

*No Notre Dame then add West Virginia.

I don't know how much UVA would like joining the BE division..... but that can be their punishment for forcing the ACC to take VT.

That southeast division is brutal : Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Everyone but GT and Vandy has won the NC in the last 25 years. Most have won multiple NCs.

(01-26-2023 08:37 PM)UVA_guy81 Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 07:23 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:42 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  Ding, Ding, Ding, Winner, Winner, chicken dinner

1. You play your five for the division title.
2. Division title gets you to a 10/12 team playoff
3. You schedule 4-5 more out of this group
4. You play ball

This year ND, NC State, UGa, TN, LSU,and TCU win their divisions.

The top WC is Bama, followed by Clemson, then Texas, then FSU, then Ole Miss, then UNC or Pitt.

This would be considered the real playoff.

If the Big 10 sensed such a move, they would likely take the AAU schools in the PAC to keep pace. Colorado and Arizona would be two of those. Arizona State would be in play. I think the SEC would keep it closer to the vest. But if you take Texas Tech instead of Colorado then Arizona State is not too desperate of a reach.

Arizona State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech.

But this configuration doesn't help Texas separate its brand as well as they might like from some of the Texas schools.

Still if the revenue isn't forced to be the same the distinction may be enough.

Four divisions of eight is more concise:

Big East: Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Atlantic: Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Wake Forest

Southeast: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

*No Notre Dame then add West Virginia.

I don't know how much UVA would like joining the BE division..... but that can be their punishment for forcing the ACC to take VT.

That southeast division is brutal : Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Everyone but GT and Vandy has won the NC in the last 25 years. Most have won multiple NCs.

Didn’t the governor at the time, Mark Warner, threaten to cut their funding if they didn’t vote for allowing VT?

(01-26-2023 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:42 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-26-2023 05:04 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  Here is a fully merged 36:

East - ND, Miami, BC, Pitt, WVa, Syracuse
Atlantic - UVa, VT, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF
South - SC, Clemson, GT, UGa, UF, FSU
Southeast - Auburn, Bama, TN, Vandy, UK, Louisville
Gulf - Ole Miss, MSU, TAMU, LSU, Ark, Mizzou
South West, Texas, OU, Kansas, Colorado, TCU, Arizona

Ding, Ding, Ding, Winner, Winner, chicken dinner

1. You play your five for the division title.
2. Division title gets you to a 10/12 team playoff
3. You schedule 4-5 more out of this group
4. You play ball

This year ND, NC State, UGa, TN, LSU,and TCU win their divisions.

The top WC is Bama, followed by Clemson, then Texas, then FSU, then Ole Miss, then UNC or Pitt.

This would be considered the real playoff.

If the Big 10 sensed such a move, they would likely take the AAU schools in the PAC to keep pace. Colorado and Arizona would be two of those. Arizona State would be in play. I think the SEC would keep it closer to the vest. But if you take Texas Tech instead of Colorado then Arizona State is not too desperate of a reach.

Arizona State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech.

But this configuration doesn't help Texas separate its brand as well as they might like from some of the Texas schools.

Still if the revenue isn't forced to be the same the distinction may be enough.

Four divisions of eight is more concise:

Big East: Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Atlantic: Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Wake Forest

Southeast: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Southwest: Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

*No Notre Dame then add West Virginia.

(01-26-2023 08:53 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  The ACC has four little pods of three and two outliers.

Duke-UNC-NC State - located just 20 miles from each other - joint programs galore - revolve around Raleigh NC
WF-VT-UVa - located in the foothills or in the Blue Ridge - joint programs galore - revolve around Roanoke Va
FSU-GT-Clemson - schools that exist somewhat in relation to Atlanta
BC-Syracuse- Pitt - actual Big East Legacy schools in the NE.

Anything that breaks a little pod will come with a lot of blowback.

Miami and Louisville are far enough away from other schools for that to be less of an issue.

(01-29-2023 10:48 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I didn't realize how young the football programs at FIU, FAU, even USF and UCF really are... until I did the research. FAU and FIU are babies!
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2023/01/lifespan-of-each-college-football-team.html

(01-29-2023 11:49 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(01-29-2023 10:48 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I didn't realize how young the football programs at FIU, FAU, even USF and UCF really are... until I did the research. FAU and FIU are babies!
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2023/01/lifespan-of-each-college-football-team.html

Yet, FAU has moved up to the 6th or 7th most prestigious conference.

* Footnote : I think the Sunbelt is going to be #6 best conference here pretty soon as they have all the best football first programs.

(01-28-2023 06:42 AM)XLance Wrote:  Looking back, it sure has been neat and convenient.
First Texas and Oklahoma announce their SEC intentions and almost immediately the entire G5 reorganizes. When the Big 12 announced that 4 G5 teams were being promoted to the P5 almost every G5 conference experienced some reorganization. But notice that at this point nothing had changed at the top, just an announcement of change.

The Big 12 added Cincinnati ( a team that the B1G did not want in the ACC) and BYU ( a must have team that the PAC wasn't going to invite under any circumstances).
Then Notre Dame went shopping and urged NBC to pay and pay and pay so much that when combined with their ACCN earnings the Irish would be making as much as the B1G schools.

In the mean time the Big 12 (the 8 schools minus Texas and Oklahoma) voted to give up $8 Million each and give that money to the 4 incoming schools (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF) to help them be competitive in their league. They were hoping to recoup that money with a GOR settlement with Texas and Oklahoma.
ESPN and FOX agreed to a media deal with the Big 12 where both broadcasters would continue to share the league (FOX getting more basketball content and ESPN getting the lions share of football).

Are all of you following this?

Then like a lightning bolt, USC and UCLA announce they are joining the B1G and the west coast conference starts to melt. Would they expand (ala the Big 12), could Oregon and Washington hitch an invitation to the B1G?
Right on cue, none of those things are happening. Rather what we are now seeing is the deconstruction of the PAC network system. The very entity that had to be done away with before the PAC could move forward or absorbed.

When you look at it backwards it really makes a lot more sense.
For the longest time I did not fall into the camp believing in the three conference scenario, but I'm beginning to change my mind.

What can we expect moving forward?
Unequal revenue distribution will allow for the completion of what has been started throughout what is now called the P5. The Big 12 is already doing it and they are having to finance it themselves. Will this be the model for the SEC and the B1G to follow.......maybe.
After the PAC gets their business straightened out (it's no accident the "overpayment" was discovered.....sounds like the results of an outside audit to me, an audit that would be necessary if the entity was getting ready to be sold), Will the PAC will "merge" with the B1G? Will that combined entity will divide into marketing units?
Will we see the same thing happen to the SEC and the ACC?

The most interesting thing to me is that the misfits all ended up in a shared conference, West Virginia, unwanted by the ACC and unacceptable to the B1G, and BYU and Baylor with their own individual issues.
That shared conference is the perfect buffer to separate marketing units and to define boundaries.

Could all of this been orchestrated?
There is only one entity that will not have had to compromise as this event continues to unfold.

(01-29-2023 01:41 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-28-2023 06:42 AM)XLance Wrote:  Looking back, it sure has been neat and convenient.
First Texas and Oklahoma announce their SEC intentions and almost immediately the entire G5 reorganizes. When the Big 12 announced that 4 G5 teams were being promoted to the P5 almost every G5 conference experienced some reorganization. But notice that at this point nothing had changed at the top, just an announcement of change.

The Big 12 added Cincinnati ( a team that the B1G did not want in the ACC) and BYU ( a must have team that the PAC wasn't going to invite under any circumstances).
Then Notre Dame went shopping and urged NBC to pay and pay and pay so much that when combined with their ACCN earnings the Irish would be making as much as the B1G schools.

In the mean time the Big 12 (the 8 schools minus Texas and Oklahoma) voted to give up $8 Million each and give that money to the 4 incoming schools (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF) to help them be competitive in their league. They were hoping to recoup that money with a GOR settlement with Texas and Oklahoma.
ESPN and FOX agreed to a media deal with the Big 12 where both broadcasters would continue to share the league (FOX getting more basketball content and ESPN getting the lions share of football).

Are all of you following this?

Then like a lightning bolt, USC and UCLA announce they are joining the B1G and the west coast conference starts to melt. Would they expand (ala the Big 12), could Oregon and Washington hitch an invitation to the B1G?
Right on cue, none of those things are happening. Rather what we are now seeing is the deconstruction of the PAC network system. The very entity that had to be done away with before the PAC could move forward or absorbed.

When you look at it backwards it really makes a lot more sense.
For the longest time I did not fall into the camp believing in the three conference scenario, but I'm beginning to change my mind.

What can we expect moving forward?
Unequal revenue distribution will allow for the completion of what has been started throughout what is now called the P5. The Big 12 is already doing it and they are having to finance it themselves. Will this be the model for the SEC and the B1G to follow.......maybe.
After the PAC gets their business straightened out (it's no accident the "overpayment" was discovered.....sounds like the results of an outside audit to me, an audit that would be necessary if the entity was getting ready to be sold), Will the PAC will "merge" with the B1G? Will that combined entity will divide into marketing units?
Will we see the same thing happen to the SEC and the ACC?

The most interesting thing to me is that the misfits all ended up in a shared conference, West Virginia, unwanted by the ACC and unacceptable to the B1G, and BYU and Baylor with their own individual issues.
That shared conference is the perfect buffer to separate marketing units and to define boundaries.

Could all of this been orchestrated?
There is only one entity that will not have had to compromise as this event continues to unfold.

The unequal revenue sharing would be the key here. I am not saying it’s impossible but it will be very difficult for non blue blood BIG/SEC schools to accept the unequal revenue sharing.

(01-28-2023 06:42 AM)XLance Wrote:  Looking back, it sure has been neat and convenient.
First Texas and Oklahoma announce their SEC intentions and almost immediately the entire G5 reorganizes. When the Big 12 announced that 4 G5 teams were being promoted to the P5 almost every G5 conference experienced some reorganization. But notice that at this point nothing had changed at the top, just an announcement of change.

The Big 12 added Cincinnati ( a team that the B1G did not want in the ACC) and BYU ( a must have team that the PAC wasn't going to invite under any circumstances).
Then Notre Dame went shopping and urged NBC to pay and pay and pay so much that when combined with their ACCN earnings the Irish would be making as much as the B1G schools.

In the mean time the Big 12 (the 8 schools minus Texas and Oklahoma) voted to give up $8 Million each and give that money to the 4 incoming schools (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF) to help them be competitive in their league. They were hoping to recoup that money with a GOR settlement with Texas and Oklahoma.
ESPN and FOX agreed to a media deal with the Big 12 where both broadcasters would continue to share the league (FOX getting more basketball content and ESPN getting the lions share of football).

Are all of you following this?

Then like a lightning bolt, USC and UCLA announce they are joining the B1G and the west coast conference starts to melt. Would they expand (ala the Big 12), could Oregon and Washington hitch an invitation to the B1G?
Right on cue, none of those things are happening. Rather what we are now seeing is the deconstruction of the PAC network system. The very entity that had to be done away with before the PAC could move forward or absorbed.

When you look at it backwards it really makes a lot more sense.
For the longest time I did not fall into the camp believing in the three conference scenario, but I'm beginning to change my mind.

What can we expect moving forward?
Unequal revenue distribution will allow for the completion of what has been started throughout what is now called the P5. The Big 12 is already doing it and they are having to finance it themselves. Will this be the model for the SEC and the B1G to follow.......maybe.
After the PAC gets their business straightened out (it's no accident the "overpayment" was discovered.....sounds like the results of an outside audit to me, an audit that would be necessary if the entity was getting ready to be sold), Will the PAC will "merge" with the B1G? Will that combined entity will divide into marketing units?
Will we see the same thing happen to the SEC and the ACC?

The most interesting thing to me is that the misfits all ended up in a shared conference, West Virginia, unwanted by the ACC and unacceptable to the B1G, and BYU and Baylor with their own individual issues.
That shared conference is the perfect buffer to separate marketing units and to define boundaries.

Could all of this been orchestrated?
There is only one entity that will not have had to compromise as this event continues to unfold.

(01-30-2023 03:07 PM)CatsClaw1 Wrote:  

(01-28-2023 06:42 AM)XLance Wrote:  Looking back, it sure has been neat and convenient.
First Texas and Oklahoma announce their SEC intentions and almost immediately the entire G5 reorganizes. When the Big 12 announced that 4 G5 teams were being promoted to the P5 almost every G5 conference experienced some reorganization. But notice that at this point nothing had changed at the top, just an announcement of change.

The Big 12 added Cincinnati ( a team that the B1G did not want in the ACC) and BYU ( a must have team that the PAC wasn't going to invite under any circumstances).
Then Notre Dame went shopping and urged NBC to pay and pay and pay so much that when combined with their ACCN earnings the Irish would be making as much as the B1G schools.

In the mean time the Big 12 (the 8 schools minus Texas and Oklahoma) voted to give up $8 Million each and give that money to the 4 incoming schools (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF) to help them be competitive in their league. They were hoping to recoup that money with a GOR settlement with Texas and Oklahoma.
ESPN and FOX agreed to a media deal with the Big 12 where both broadcasters would continue to share the league (FOX getting more basketball content and ESPN getting the lions share of football).

Are all of you following this?

Then like a lightning bolt, USC and UCLA announce they are joining the B1G and the west coast conference starts to melt. Would they expand (ala the Big 12), could Oregon and Washington hitch an invitation to the B1G?
Right on cue, none of those things are happening. Rather what we are now seeing is the deconstruction of the PAC network system. The very entity that had to be done away with before the PAC could move forward or absorbed.

When you look at it backwards it really makes a lot more sense.
For the longest time I did not fall into the camp believing in the three conference scenario, but I'm beginning to change my mind.

What can we expect moving forward?
Unequal revenue distribution will allow for the completion of what has been started throughout what is now called the P5. The Big 12 is already doing it and they are having to finance it themselves. Will this be the model for the SEC and the B1G to follow.......maybe.
After the PAC gets their business straightened out (it's no accident the "overpayment" was discovered.....sounds like the results of an outside audit to me, an audit that would be necessary if the entity was getting ready to be sold), Will the PAC will "merge" with the B1G? Will that combined entity will divide into marketing units?
Will we see the same thing happen to the SEC and the ACC?

The most interesting thing to me is that the misfits all ended up in a shared conference, West Virginia, unwanted by the ACC and unacceptable to the B1G, and BYU and Baylor with their own individual issues.
That shared conference is the perfect buffer to separate marketing units and to define boundaries.

Could all of this been orchestrated?
There is only one entity that will not have had to compromise as this event continues to unfold.

That's a great breakdown and I agree. I don't see a two team conference being rhe end result. I see TV pushing some Pac-12 schools to the Big 12 and growing it. Also I'm in the minority, I've been saying forever that ESPN will protect the ACC and negotiate a new deal years before the expiration (maybe in 2032 or 2033) and help the ACC avoid losing any schools. I think that moving forward it will be the B1G, SEC, Big 12 and ACC as the main forces and the Pac-12 existing as a reduced AQ/P5 conference similar to the old Big East.

(01-31-2023 10:21 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(01-30-2023 03:07 PM)CatsClaw1 Wrote:  

(01-28-2023 06:42 AM)XLance Wrote:  Looking back, it sure has been neat and convenient.
First Texas and Oklahoma announce their SEC intentions and almost immediately the entire G5 reorganizes. When the Big 12 announced that 4 G5 teams were being promoted to the P5 almost every G5 conference experienced some reorganization. But notice that at this point nothing had changed at the top, just an announcement of change.

The Big 12 added Cincinnati ( a team that the B1G did not want in the ACC) and BYU ( a must have team that the PAC wasn't going to invite under any circumstances).
Then Notre Dame went shopping and urged NBC to pay and pay and pay so much that when combined with their ACCN earnings the Irish would be making as much as the B1G schools.

In the mean time the Big 12 (the 8 schools minus Texas and Oklahoma) voted to give up $8 Million each and give that money to the 4 incoming schools (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF) to help them be competitive in their league. They were hoping to recoup that money with a GOR settlement with Texas and Oklahoma.
ESPN and FOX agreed to a media deal with the Big 12 where both broadcasters would continue to share the league (FOX getting more basketball content and ESPN getting the lions share of football).

Are all of you following this?

Then like a lightning bolt, USC and UCLA announce they are joining the B1G and the west coast conference starts to melt. Would they expand (ala the Big 12), could Oregon and Washington hitch an invitation to the B1G?
Right on cue, none of those things are happening. Rather what we are now seeing is the deconstruction of the PAC network system. The very entity that had to be done away with before the PAC could move forward or absorbed.

When you look at it backwards it really makes a lot more sense.
For the longest time I did not fall into the camp believing in the three conference scenario, but I'm beginning to change my mind.

What can we expect moving forward?
Unequal revenue distribution will allow for the completion of what has been started throughout what is now called the P5. The Big 12 is already doing it and they are having to finance it themselves. Will this be the model for the SEC and the B1G to follow.......maybe.
After the PAC gets their business straightened out (it's no accident the "overpayment" was discovered.....sounds like the results of an outside audit to me, an audit that would be necessary if the entity was getting ready to be sold), Will the PAC will "merge" with the B1G? Will that combined entity will divide into marketing units?
Will we see the same thing happen to the SEC and the ACC?

The most interesting thing to me is that the misfits all ended up in a shared conference, West Virginia, unwanted by the ACC and unacceptable to the B1G, and BYU and Baylor with their own individual issues.
That shared conference is the perfect buffer to separate marketing units and to define boundaries.

Could all of this been orchestrated?
There is only one entity that will not have had to compromise as this event continues to unfold.

That's a great breakdown and I agree. I don't see a two team conference being rhe end result. I see TV pushing some Pac-12 schools to the Big 12 and growing it. Also I'm in the minority, I've been saying forever that ESPN will protect the ACC and negotiate a new deal years before the expiration (maybe in 2032 or 2033) and help the ACC avoid losing any schools. I think that moving forward it will be the B1G, SEC, Big 12 and ACC as the main forces and the Pac-12 existing as a reduced AQ/P5 conference similar to the old Big East.

I will be beyond shocked if ESPN offers the ACC enough $$$$$ to mitigate the risk of losing key school(s) to the B1G. GoR is a very dirty word for more than one of the top programs in the conference.