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RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 01-24-2023 08:51 PM
(01-24-2023 07:18 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: I realize that some folks want to not believe that culture and shared interests matter beyond money, but I think they do.
There is a reason the Big 10 confines itself to certain regions. There is a reason that additions more than one culture removed from Tidewater Atlantic are problematic fits in the ACC.
When everyone else is the problem, it isn't everyone else.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - XLance - 01-24-2023 09:10 PM
(01-24-2023 07:18 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: I realize that some folks want to not believe that culture and shared interests matter beyond money, but I think they do.
There is a reason the Big 10 confines itself to certain regions. There is a reason that additions more than one culture removed from Tidewater Atlantic are problematic fits in the ACC.
That would include Boston College, Syracuse, Miami and Notre Dame?
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - SouthernConfBoy - 01-24-2023 09:44 PM
(01-24-2023 09:10 PM)XLance Wrote:(01-24-2023 07:18 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: I realize that some folks want to not believe that culture and shared interests matter beyond money, but I think they do.
There is a reason the Big 10 confines itself to certain regions. There is a reason that additions more than one culture removed from Tidewater Atlantic are problematic fits in the ACC.
That would include Boston College, Syracuse, Miami and Notre Dame?
Using the map I cited the three physically adjoining cultures are Greater Appalachia, the Midlands, and the Deep South. GA are diasporaed Highland Scots, Scots Irish, German migrants from PA who came in the 18th Century. The Midlands are Germans of two flavors 18th Century and 19th Century but to call them only Germans is poor academic scholarship, South of the Baltic but North of the Alps might be better. The Deep South is an English settled culture that stopped became embroiled in labor intensive farming and pattern of economics that concentrated most all power in the hands of a few.
Polity and paternalism (sometimes called pretension or "airs") is integral to the Tidewater that birthed the ACC.
Yankeedom of which ND, BC, and Syracuse are a part is not always the best fit but BC also sits on a socioeconomic island as does GT in Atlanta. Part of Miami is Yankee, but part is Spanish Caribbean.
I see it as a philosophical battle between individualism writ large, and collectivism where the collective is run in an un democratic fashion by the ptb.
Put another way, UNC, Duke, and UVa are like rocks in a bird's gizzard, they serve a function, but they are not digestible.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - GarnetAndBlue - 01-24-2023 10:29 PM
(01-24-2023 07:01 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:(01-24-2023 06:46 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(01-24-2023 06:36 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:(01-24-2023 04:36 PM)Garrettabc Wrote: Here’s a parodox for the ACC: Trying to appease FSU and Miami (if that is actually their wish) by not elevating USF to P-5 status and a peer member in the ACC, the Big12 seems destined to do just that. I think most people understand that USF is one of the next G-5s in line for a promotion. The ACC might end up losing both FSU and Miami to the SEC or BigTen anyway some years down the road. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
I don't think Miami wants or needs appeasement regarding USF. I also don't see the SEC adding Miami unless the SEC is adding 8 or more ACC schools and that's not an addition but a de facto re-merger.
FSU is the one that has always had the "problem" because they come from a Deep South Culture that is not the ACC's main culture.
Good grief. FSU is no longer "deep south culture". It's 2023 not 1989 let alone 1959. I'm guessing you haven't spent much time there and you're making a long distance judgment based on location. From the university president (a Harvard VP of Research hire) down to the average student, that's just not the case. You're talking about a huge school - with kids from every state in the union and beyond our borders - that receives nearly 80K freshman applications. They're not all from Leon County and the surrounding area.
The ACC is stuck. It's going to remain as is until the GoR ends, then will backfill as needed. There's a reason no schools have been added since Louisville backfilled Maryland's spot a decade ago. And no true adds since the early 00's when the ACC raided the Big East. There are no good moves on the chess board for the ACC anymore, not that get the 75%+ required votes my current members anyway.
Wow, I had no idea that South Alabama, South Georgia, and NW Florida had become so progressive in the last two years since my last visit. FSU's fans are not the students who are now attending. Your core fan base is the one holding season tickets. Your core fan base has a lot in common with Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, MSU, Florida, and South Carolina - the most important aspect of that commonality is a non-urban culture. Tally is smaller that Winston Salem and Winston is not God's gift to the world.
A non-urban, or rural ideation comes with a whole laundry list of preferences. Most of the ACC schools are "urban" in nature and their fan base is rooted in urban/suburban areas not suburban/rural areas - BC, Pitt, Miami, GT, UNC, Duke, Louisville, and UVa are mirrors of a different culture. NC State, VT, and Clemson are you only cultural cousins in the ACC. That's why you have a difficult time with fit.
But we could get technical as if you were presenting your dissertation. Mr. GarnetandBlue, if "Deep South" is offensive or nor longer descriptive of the area bounded roughly by Ocala to Columbia SC, to Chattanooga, to Memphis, to Vicksburg, to Mobile, and back to Ocala what descriptor would you coin? All the popular geographers continue to use Deep South for this area, what would you call it and how would you distinguish is from Texas, Cajun Louisiana, Hispanic Florida, and the demographic mishmash that is Orlando? What name would give to the island of Atlanta or the archipelago that reaches from Atlanta back to Charlotte?
Is this map wrong? https://www.businessinsider.com/the-11-nations-of-the-united-states-2015-7
FSU is located in the deep south. You're correct on that point.
It's funny that you used Orlando as an example as not being in the deep south. That former train stop absolutely was just another deep south town just 50 years ago. It still is geographically. Less and less so, culturally, at light speed. Things change.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - GarnetAndBlue - 01-24-2023 10:54 PM
(01-24-2023 07:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:(01-24-2023 06:46 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(01-24-2023 06:36 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:(01-24-2023 04:36 PM)Garrettabc Wrote: Here’s a parodox for the ACC: Trying to appease FSU and Miami (if that is actually their wish) by not elevating USF to P-5 status and a peer member in the ACC, the Big12 seems destined to do just that. I think most people understand that USF is one of the next G-5s in line for a promotion. The ACC might end up losing both FSU and Miami to the SEC or BigTen anyway some years down the road. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
I don't think Miami wants or needs appeasement regarding USF. I also don't see the SEC adding Miami unless the SEC is adding 8 or more ACC schools and that's not an addition but a de facto re-merger.
FSU is the one that has always had the "problem" because they come from a Deep South Culture that is not the ACC's main culture.
Good grief. FSU is no longer "deep south culture". It's 2023 not 1989 let alone 1959. I'm guessing you haven't spent much time there and you're making a long distance judgment based on location. From the university president (a Harvard VP of Research hire) down to the average student, that's not the case. And not the average booster either. You're talking about a huge school - with kids from every state in the union and beyond our borders - that receives nearly 80K freshman applications. They're not all from Leon County and the surrounding area. Beyond that, I like the southern accents and hospitality that makes FSU what it is...it's just not the whole of it.
The ACC is stuck. It's going to remain as is until the GoR ends, then will backfill as needed. There's a reason no schools have been added since Louisville backfilled Maryland's spot a decade ago. And no true adds since the early 00's when the ACC raided the Big East. There are no good moves on the chess board for the ACC anymore, not that get the 75%+ required votes my current members anyway.
There are some solid moves for the ACC. It's just that Duke, UVa, and UNC will need to move before they can be made.
Yep. Or just about any combination of their higher value schools. But the net result will be a weaker ACC - at least for the short/medium term. Anyway, my point is that the ACC won't be adding any new teams until some current teams leave and open up spots. I understand that's a frustrating thing for ACC diehards to hear.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - JRsec - 01-24-2023 11:00 PM
(01-24-2023 10:54 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(01-24-2023 07:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:(01-24-2023 06:46 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(01-24-2023 06:36 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:(01-24-2023 04:36 PM)Garrettabc Wrote: Here’s a parodox for the ACC: Trying to appease FSU and Miami (if that is actually their wish) by not elevating USF to P-5 status and a peer member in the ACC, the Big12 seems destined to do just that. I think most people understand that USF is one of the next G-5s in line for a promotion. The ACC might end up losing both FSU and Miami to the SEC or BigTen anyway some years down the road. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
I don't think Miami wants or needs appeasement regarding USF. I also don't see the SEC adding Miami unless the SEC is adding 8 or more ACC schools and that's not an addition but a de facto re-merger.
FSU is the one that has always had the "problem" because they come from a Deep South Culture that is not the ACC's main culture.
Good grief. FSU is no longer "deep south culture". It's 2023 not 1989 let alone 1959. I'm guessing you haven't spent much time there and you're making a long distance judgment based on location. From the university president (a Harvard VP of Research hire) down to the average student, that's not the case. And not the average booster either. You're talking about a huge school - with kids from every state in the union and beyond our borders - that receives nearly 80K freshman applications. They're not all from Leon County and the surrounding area. Beyond that, I like the southern accents and hospitality that makes FSU what it is...it's just not the whole of it.
The ACC is stuck. It's going to remain as is until the GoR ends, then will backfill as needed. There's a reason no schools have been added since Louisville backfilled Maryland's spot a decade ago. And no true adds since the early 00's when the ACC raided the Big East. There are no good moves on the chess board for the ACC anymore, not that get the 75%+ required votes my current members anyway.
There are some solid moves for the ACC. It's just that Duke, UVa, and UNC will need to move before they can be made.
Yep. Or just about any combination of their higher value schools. But the net result will be a weaker ACC - at least for the short/medium term. Anyway, my point is that the ACC won't be adding any new teams until some current teams leave and open up spots. I understand that's a frustrating thing for ACC diehards to hear.
My family had a solid saying, "If you want to plow and plant for a better future you have to get rid of the old stumps!"
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - XLance - 01-25-2023 06:13 AM
(01-24-2023 10:54 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(01-24-2023 07:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:(01-24-2023 06:46 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:(01-24-2023 06:36 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:(01-24-2023 04:36 PM)Garrettabc Wrote: Here’s a parodox for the ACC: Trying to appease FSU and Miami (if that is actually their wish) by not elevating USF to P-5 status and a peer member in the ACC, the Big12 seems destined to do just that. I think most people understand that USF is one of the next G-5s in line for a promotion. The ACC might end up losing both FSU and Miami to the SEC or BigTen anyway some years down the road. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
I don't think Miami wants or needs appeasement regarding USF. I also don't see the SEC adding Miami unless the SEC is adding 8 or more ACC schools and that's not an addition but a de facto re-merger.
FSU is the one that has always had the "problem" because they come from a Deep South Culture that is not the ACC's main culture.
Good grief. FSU is no longer "deep south culture". It's 2023 not 1989 let alone 1959. I'm guessing you haven't spent much time there and you're making a long distance judgment based on location. From the university president (a Harvard VP of Research hire) down to the average student, that's not the case. And not the average booster either. You're talking about a huge school - with kids from every state in the union and beyond our borders - that receives nearly 80K freshman applications. They're not all from Leon County and the surrounding area. Beyond that, I like the southern accents and hospitality that makes FSU what it is...it's just not the whole of it.
The ACC is stuck. It's going to remain as is until the GoR ends, then will backfill as needed. There's a reason no schools have been added since Louisville backfilled Maryland's spot a decade ago. And no true adds since the early 00's when the ACC raided the Big East. There are no good moves on the chess board for the ACC anymore, not that get the 75%+ required votes my current members anyway.
There are some solid moves for the ACC. It's just that Duke, UVa, and UNC will need to move before they can be made.
Yep. Or just about any combination of their higher value schools. But the net result will be a weaker ACC - at least for the short/medium term. Anyway, my point is that the ACC won't be adding any new teams until some current teams leave and open up spots. I understand that's a frustrating thing for ACC diehards to hear.
What the ACC does re: further expansion is completely dependent on ESPN and it appears that the overall strategy is still in flux.
One thing that had dragged on (and is still not settled) is the departure date for, and the integration of Texas and Oklahoma.
It's entirely possible that USC and UCLA will be competing in the B1G long before Texas and Oklahoma ever vacate the Big 12.
Does ESPN have a broadcasting slot available at a time agreeable to Notre Dame to make a run at the Irish in an attempt to snatch them away from NBC?
Is ESPN's agreement with FOX on the division of the Big 12 finalized, I guess we won't know the answer to that question until something with the PAC is settled.
I still contend that 16 will be the max for at least the foreseeable future. The SEC is there and the ACC has two available slots. Will ESPN add to the current 14 team ACC? I don't know for sure, I can only speculate like the reasonable posters on this board.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Garrettabc - 01-25-2023 09:33 AM
Once the Pac and Big12 get settled in their new contracts, I think realignment stops for a while. Realistically, I don’t see the ACC making a move; they don’t need to make a move and there is no good move to make. I do think the $7m per member in the AAC is chump change and ESPN got themselves a real bargain. FOX knows this and they were willing to pay UH, UCF and UC closer to their worth of $30m per. If ESPN feels that USF, Temple, SMU are in danger of leaving their family of networks, I think they would be willing to pay the ACC to take them rather than let them go to Fox. It would really healthy for college football if more networks were involved in bidding wars.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Garrettabc - 01-25-2023 11:55 AM
Ran-dumb GoR loophole thought, could a loop hole be used if FSU (for example) changed their logo and mascot? Not that I’d want to do that.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Wahoowa84 - 01-25-2023 12:39 PM
All this obsession with culture and tradition just reminds of why the ACC was historically called a country club. William & Mary has the ideal cultural characteristics for the conference core, but the school is the polar opposite of what the ACC has been or needs.
College athletics is about sports, entertainment and finance. If culture was an overriding consideration, then Texas would have stayed in the B12 or moved to the PAC. USC and UCLA aren’t switching to the B1G because their “El Norte” culture has synergies with “Yankeedom” schools in Michigan or Wisconsin.
Currently, schools in the B1G and SEC are not interested in the ACC. IMO, the only viable & accretive programs to the ACC are in the PAC…but it’s finances (not culture) that is the major hurdle.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - SouthernConfBoy - 01-25-2023 01:30 PM
(01-25-2023 12:39 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: All this obsession with culture and tradition just reminds of why the ACC was historically called a country club. William & Mary has the ideal cultural characteristics for the conference core, but the school is the polar opposite of what the ACC has been or needs.
College athletics is about sports, entertainment and finance. If culture was an overriding consideration, then Texas would have stayed in the B12 or moved to the PAC. USC and UCLA aren’t switching to the B1G because their “El Norte” culture has synergies with “Yankeedom” schools in Michigan or Wisconsin.
Currently, schools in the B1G and SEC are not interested in the ACC. IMO, the only viable & accretive programs to the ACC are in the PAC…but it’s finances (not culture) that is the major hurdle.
The culture of the schools USC and UCLA are similar to the Big 10 because those schools are populated by Big 10 doctoral graduates and Big 10 migrants who came to California during and after WWII. Chaim migration.
As to Bill & Mary, that's 50 years ago. They were conference members when you were not - 37-53. That UNC was inclined to invite them had less to do with Bill and Mary as it did on making certain ECU did not come crashing into the ACC, nor anyone else they did not want.
The area in question was the Norfolk/Tidewater and of course the ACC need a backup plan in case UVa continued with their less than progressive policies regarding the major sports.
Bill and Mary put their first black kid on the football field in 1968. UVa did not until 1971. A lot of folks look back, scratch their head, and can't figure out what's going in the ACC from time to time in the past. The politics of race back then was baked into a lot of decisions. It's part of what kept Penn, Penn State, and Pitt out of the ACC in the 1950's.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - random asian guy - 01-25-2023 04:24 PM
(01-22-2023 09:59 AM)XLance Wrote:(01-20-2023 06:26 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: RE: Expansion candidates from the American Athletic Conference...
USF - I love their location (Tampa), though I'm not sure how much Miami and FSU love it. The Bulls have shown flashes in both football and basketball, but no consistency.
Tulane - One of the teams which willingly left the SEC. It's going to take more than one good season to convince me they're serious about sports.
SMU - The "Pony Express" days show what they can do when they're willing to cheat, but what can they do when they're not cheating?
Mark, several folks have indicated that Gross Revenue would be a determining factor in any future realignment.
Of the three teams you have listed:
USF $60M
Tulane $32M
SMU $69M
Based on those numbers, Tulane may not be a potential candidate. Could they afford to compete in a league that averages $94M?
https://csnbbs.com/thread-947893-post-18245102.html#pid18245102
(thanks to JRsec for the reserch)
Total Gross Revenue by school
https://csnbbs.com/thread-943149-post-18101747.html#pid18101747
(thanks to EnterSandman for the research)
Gross revenue is certainly important but I would be cautious using that metric as a determining factor. My understanding is that the gross revenue includes corporate sponsorship and student fees. How would those revenue help other conference members?
We need teams whose football/basketball teams draw a lot of eyeballs.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - random asian guy - 01-25-2023 04:33 PM
I think the five year average football attendance is a good metric for the next expansion target.
First, let’s see the ACC schools.
School 5 Year Avg
Clemson 80,500
Florida State 65,746
Virginia Tech 60,571
NC State 56,438
Miami (FL) 55,050
Louisville 48,871
North Carolina 48,478
Georgia Tech 43,961
Pittsburgh 42,561
Virginia 41,867
Syracuse 35,680
Boston College 34,934
Wake Forest 27,491
Duke 24,915
1. The median attendance number should be somewhere between UNC’s (48.5K) and Georgia Tech’ (44K). I would say 47K is a threshold, and a new addition should have at least 47K or higher.
2. Despite the dismal performance on field, VT’s number was not that bad. Not far behind FSU’s attendance number.
3. I didn’t know Duke’s number was this bad…not much better AAC schools.
Speaking of AAC schools, this is their list.
UCF 40,176
ECU 36,588
Memphis 34,787
South Florida 34,550
Cincinnati 33,172
Navy 32,210
Houston 30,393
Temple 26,787
SMU 21,969
Tulane 18,503
Tulsa 17,922
4. Unfortunately, none of these schools recorded the attendance higher than the ACC threshold. Maybe they would have higher numbers if they played the ACC opponents.
5. UCF and ECU leads the list but neither of them would deliver a new market.
SMU and Tulane are in desirable markets but look at their attendance numbers. People make fun of UConn’s football team, but UConn’s 5 year average was 20K, not that different from SMU’s and Tulane’s.
6. I still think Houston and Cincy have the biggest potential among the AAC schools. Memphis also got a good potential but I just know the ACC will never invite them.
The B12 is next.
Texas 95,323
Oklahoma 84,233
Iowa State 57,399
West Virginia 55,835
Texas Tech 55,034
Oklahoma State 54,395
Kansas State 49,629
Baylor 44,250
TCU 42,905
Kansas 25,559
7. Obviously UT and OU are top schools. ISU, WVU, TTU, and OK State have similar numbers around 54K – 57K.
8. I hate to say this but WVU got a good attendance number. It is probably only non P2 school in ETZ whose attendance number exceeds the ACC threshold. But we all know WVU got a zero chance.
9. I had said this before but OK State has a good football following. And with OU joining the SEC, adding OK State could mean one more SEC-ACC rivalry game (if that’s desirable for ESPN).
10. TCU with 43K attendance number is below the threshold, but much higher than Houston or SMU’s attendance number. TCU is the school to invite if the ACC wants to get into Texas.
Lastly, here is the Pac-12.
Washington 66,553
USC 62,433
Oregon 53,247
UCLA 52,867
Arizona State 48,809
Utah 47,406
Colorado 47,106
Arizona 42,158
California 41,172
Stanford 40,417
Oregon State 34,107
Washington State 29,101
11 The following schools meet or exceed the ACC threshold: UW (very easily), UO, ASU, Utah (barely) and Colorado (barely).
12. I believe all these five schools deliver new markets and are academically acceptable. However, geography is still a challenge.
13. Washington and Oregon should be the top two candidates if the travel is not an issue.
Source:
https://www.d1ticker.com/2022-fbs-attendance-trends/
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Garrettabc - 01-25-2023 04:56 PM
(01-25-2023 12:39 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: All this obsession with culture and tradition just reminds of why the ACC was historically called a country club. William & Mary has the ideal cultural characteristics for the conference core, but the school is the polar opposite of what the ACC has been or needs.
College athletics is about sports, entertainment and finance. If culture was an overriding consideration, then Texas would have stayed in the B12 or moved to the PAC. USC and UCLA aren’t switching to the B1G because their “El Norte” culture has synergies with “Yankeedom” schools in Michigan or Wisconsin.
Currently, schools in the B1G and SEC are not interested in the ACC. IMO, the only viable & accretive programs to the ACC are in the PAC…but it’s finances (not culture) that is the major hurdle.
It seems to me that the culture, politics or whatever the core make up of the conference seems to be the conference’s own worst enemy.
I think if you have a school like USF that fits the culture, meets the academic standard, a large public school with athletic potential to be one of the very best in the conference, I would not wait on ESPN, I’d just go ahead and add them. ESPN should not be dictating who belongs in the club. I think ESPN and the ACC can work something out.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Garrettabc - 01-25-2023 05:14 PM
UCF and USF’s Numbers I believe can be flipped if the rolls were reversed; if USF had UCF’s recent success and UCF had USF’s struggles. Both football programs have come a long way in a short amount of time. Having an ACC schedule with Miami and FSU on it will bring out the casual fans and the away team fans which will inflate those attendance numbers and bring it closer to the average median.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Hokie Mark - 01-25-2023 05:42 PM
(01-25-2023 04:33 PM)random asian guy Wrote: I think the five year average football attendance is a good metric for the next expansion target.
First, let’s see the ACC schools.
School 5 Year Avg
Clemson 80,500
Florida State 65,746
Virginia Tech 60,571
NC State 56,438
Miami (FL) 55,050
Louisville 48,871
North Carolina 48,478
Georgia Tech 43,961
Pittsburgh 42,561
Virginia 41,867
Syracuse 35,680
Boston College 34,934
Wake Forest 27,491
Duke 24,915
1. The median attendance number should be somewhere between UNC’s (48.5K) and Georgia Tech’ (44K). I would say 47K is a threshold, and a new addition should have at least 47K or higher.
2. Despite the dismal performance on field, VT’s number was not that bad. Not far behind FSU’s attendance number.
3. I didn’t know Duke’s number was this bad…not much better AAC schools.
I'm gonna skip to the P5 conferences...
Quote:The B12 is next.
Texas 95,323
Oklahoma 84,233
Iowa State 57,399
West Virginia 55,835
Texas Tech 55,034
Oklahoma State 54,395
Kansas State 49,629
Baylor 44,250
TCU 42,905
Kansas 25,559
7. Obviously UT and OU are top schools. ISU, WVU, TTU, and OK State have similar numbers around 54K – 57K.
8. I hate to say this but WVU got a good attendance number. It is probably only non P2 school in ETZ whose attendance number exceeds the ACC threshold...
9. I had said this before but OK State has a good football following. And with OU joining the SEC, adding OK State could mean one more SEC-ACC rivalry game (if that’s desirable for ESPN).
10. TCU with 43K attendance number is below the threshold, but much higher than Houston or SMU’s attendance number. TCU is the school to invite if the ACC wants to get into Texas.
The schools in red give maximum fan support / tv audience.
Quote:Lastly, here is the Pac-12.
Washington 66,553
USC 62,433
Oregon 53,247
UCLA 52,867
Arizona State 48,809
Utah 47,406
Colorado 47,106
Arizona 42,158
California 41,172
Stanford 40,417
Oregon State 34,107
Washington State 29,101
11 The following schools meet or exceed the ACC threshold: UW (very easily), UO, ASU, Utah (barely) and Colorado (barely).
12. I believe all these five schools deliver new markets and are academically acceptable. However, geography is still a challenge.
13. Washington and Oregon should be the top two candidates if the travel is not an issue.
My issue with the Pac-12 is that you want to be in California, but the Big Ten picked all of the plums! UW and UO are very good adds, though - and ASU + Utah is a solid supporting cast. Toss in Colorado and Stanford if you want to be in California...
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - SouthernConfBoy - 01-25-2023 05:50 PM
(01-25-2023 04:33 PM)random asian guy Wrote: I think the five year average football attendance is a good metric for the next expansion target.
First, let’s see the ACC schools.
School 5 Year Avg
Clemson 80,500
Florida State 65,746
Virginia Tech 60,571
NC State 56,438
Miami (FL) 55,050
Louisville 48,871
North Carolina 48,478
Georgia Tech 43,961
Pittsburgh 42,561
Virginia 41,867
Syracuse 35,680
Boston College 34,934
Wake Forest 27,491
Duke 24,915
1. The median attendance number should be somewhere between UNC’s (48.5K) and Georgia Tech’ (44K). I would say 47K is a threshold, and a new addition should have at least 47K or higher.
2. Despite the dismal performance on field, VT’s number was not that bad. Not far behind FSU’s attendance number.
3. I didn’t know Duke’s number was this bad…not much better AAC schools.
Speaking of AAC schools, this is their list.
UCF 40,176
ECU 36,588
Memphis 34,787
South Florida 34,550
Cincinnati 33,172
Navy 32,210
Houston 30,393
Temple 26,787
SMU 21,969
Tulane 18,503
Tulsa 17,922
4. Unfortunately, none of these schools recorded the attendance higher than the ACC threshold. Maybe they would have higher numbers if they played the ACC opponents.
5. UCF and ECU leads the list but neither of them would deliver a new market.
SMU and Tulane are in desirable markets but look at their attendance numbers. People make fun of UConn’s football team, but UConn’s 5 year average was 20K, not that different from SMU’s and Tulane’s.
6. I still think Houston and Cincy have the biggest potential among the AAC schools. Memphis also got a good potential but I just know the ACC will never invite them.
The B12 is next.
Texas 95,323
Oklahoma 84,233
Iowa State 57,399
West Virginia 55,835
Texas Tech 55,034
Oklahoma State 54,395
Kansas State 49,629
Baylor 44,250
TCU 42,905
Kansas 25,559
7. Obviously UT and OU are top schools. ISU, WVU, TTU, and OK State have similar numbers around 54K – 57K.
8. I hate to say this but WVU got a good attendance number. It is probably only non P2 school in ETZ whose attendance number exceeds the ACC threshold. But we all know WVU got a zero chance.
9. I had said this before but OK State has a good football following. And with OU joining the SEC, adding OK State could mean one more SEC-ACC rivalry game (if that’s desirable for ESPN).
10. TCU with 43K attendance number is below the threshold, but much higher than Houston or SMU’s attendance number. TCU is the school to invite if the ACC wants to get into Texas.
Lastly, here is the Pac-12.
Washington 66,553
USC 62,433
Oregon 53,247
UCLA 52,867
Arizona State 48,809
Utah 47,406
Colorado 47,106
Arizona 42,158
California 41,172
Stanford 40,417
Oregon State 34,107
Washington State 29,101
11 The following schools meet or exceed the ACC threshold: UW (very easily), UO, ASU, Utah (barely) and Colorado (barely).
12. I believe all these five schools deliver new markets and are academically acceptable. However, geography is still a challenge.
13. Washington and Oregon should be the top two candidates if the travel is not an issue.
Source:
https://www.d1ticker.com/2022-fbs-attendance-trends/
Random, is it fair to compare the G-5 home schedule to the P-5 home schedule when calculating potential future attendance?
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - random asian guy - 01-25-2023 06:42 PM
(01-25-2023 05:50 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:(01-25-2023 04:33 PM)random asian guy Wrote: I think the five year average football attendance is a good metric for the next expansion target.
First, let’s see the ACC schools.
School 5 Year Avg
Clemson 80,500
Florida State 65,746
Virginia Tech 60,571
NC State 56,438
Miami (FL) 55,050
Louisville 48,871
North Carolina 48,478
Georgia Tech 43,961
Pittsburgh 42,561
Virginia 41,867
Syracuse 35,680
Boston College 34,934
Wake Forest 27,491
Duke 24,915
1. The median attendance number should be somewhere between UNC’s (48.5K) and Georgia Tech’ (44K). I would say 47K is a threshold, and a new addition should have at least 47K or higher.
2. Despite the dismal performance on field, VT’s number was not that bad. Not far behind FSU’s attendance number.
3. I didn’t know Duke’s number was this bad…not much better AAC schools.
Speaking of AAC schools, this is their list.
UCF 40,176
ECU 36,588
Memphis 34,787
South Florida 34,550
Cincinnati 33,172
Navy 32,210
Houston 30,393
Temple 26,787
SMU 21,969
Tulane 18,503
Tulsa 17,922
4. Unfortunately, none of these schools recorded the attendance higher than the ACC threshold. Maybe they would have higher numbers if they played the ACC opponents. .
5. UCF and ECU leads the list but neither of them would deliver a new market.
SMU and Tulane are in desirable markets but look at their attendance numbers. People make fun of UConn’s football team, but UConn’s 5 year average was 20K, not that different from SMU’s and Tulane’s.
6. I still think Houston and Cincy have the biggest potential among the AAC schools. Memphis also got a good potential but I just know the ACC will never invite them.
The B12 is next.
Texas 95,323
Oklahoma 84,233
Iowa State 57,399
West Virginia 55,835
Texas Tech 55,034
Oklahoma State 54,395
Kansas State 49,629
Baylor 44,250
TCU 42,905
Kansas 25,559
7. Obviously UT and OU are top schools. ISU, WVU, TTU, and OK State have similar numbers around 54K – 57K.
8. I hate to say this but WVU got a good attendance number. It is probably only non P2 school in ETZ whose attendance number exceeds the ACC threshold. But we all know WVU got a zero chance.
9. I had said this before but OK State has a good football following. And with OU joining the SEC, adding OK State could mean one more SEC-ACC rivalry game (if that’s desirable for ESPN).
10. TCU with 43K attendance number is below the threshold, but much higher than Houston or SMU’s attendance number. TCU is the school to invite if the ACC wants to get into Texas.
Lastly, here is the Pac-12.
Washington 66,553
USC 62,433
Oregon 53,247
UCLA 52,867
Arizona State 48,809
Utah 47,406
Colorado 47,106
Arizona 42,158
California 41,172
Stanford 40,417
Oregon State 34,107
Washington State 29,101
11 The following schools meet or exceed the ACC threshold: UW (very easily), UO, ASU, Utah (barely) and Colorado (barely).
12. I believe all these five schools deliver new markets and are academically acceptable. However, geography is still a challenge.
13. Washington and Oregon should be the top two candidates if the travel is not an issue.
Source:
https://www.d1ticker.com/2022-fbs-attendance-trends/
Random, is it fair to compare the G-5 home schedule to the P-5 home schedule when calculating potential future attendance?
For sure the opponents would affect the attendance numbers. If an AAC school have played the ACC teams, they would have gotten a higher number as noted in the bolded sentence. I don’t know how much increase though. With a 20 percent increase, UCF would have been 48K and meeting the threshold. But that means sell-out for every home game for UCF.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - CardinalJim - 01-25-2023 07:21 PM
The ACC’s window for expansion doesn’t close until The Big 12 signs an updated GOR. When that happens the expansion window will close until close to the end of this decade. Everything depends on ESPN.
RE: Is the expansion still an option for the ACC? - Wahoowa84 - 01-25-2023 07:26 PM
(01-25-2023 04:56 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:Not convinced that elevating USF is a wise move. USF recruits players from the same pool as the ACC’s media bell cows. We would also be exacerbating an ACC media weakness…too many schools from overlapping markets (we already have 4 programs vying for dominance of North Carolinians). USF doesn’t have enough brand value and carries a lot of shorter-term risks (e.g., mediocre football, insufficient resources).(01-25-2023 12:39 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: All this obsession with culture and tradition just reminds of why the ACC was historically called a country club. William & Mary has the ideal cultural characteristics for the conference core, but the school is the polar opposite of what the ACC has been or needs.
College athletics is about sports, entertainment and finance. If culture was an overriding consideration, then Texas would have stayed in the B12 or moved to the PAC. USC and UCLA aren’t switching to the B1G because their “El Norte” culture has synergies with “Yankeedom” schools in Michigan or Wisconsin.
Currently, schools in the B1G and SEC are not interested in the ACC. IMO, the only viable & accretive programs to the ACC are in the PAC…but it’s finances (not culture) that is the major hurdle.
It seems to me that the culture, politics or whatever the core make up of the conference seems to be the conference’s own worst enemy.
I think if you have a school like USF that fits the culture, meets the academic standard, a large public school with athletic potential to be one of the very best in the conference, I would not wait on ESPN, I’d just go ahead and add them. ESPN should not be dictating who belongs in the club. I think ESPN and the ACC can work something out.
FWIW, USF’s long-term potential makes more sense for the SEC.