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Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - TIGERCITY - 10-16-2022 02:35 PM
Seems like the different protesters with different interests are now supporting each other. The 'my standard of living crowd' are supporting the 'my civil rights crowd.' Women are taking off their heads scarf and cutting their hair while inflation is going to hit 50%. The the government attempting to blame the West, specifically the United States, doesn't seems to be carrying the day. Despite the crackdowns and murders the protests won't go away. And it appears that people in general are now beginning to realize that something bigger is going on .,. it's time to pick sides. One problem had to be resolved by the rioters is that there doesn't seem to be a central charismatic person to organize around. Get that solved and I bet it's off to the races for regime change. And Putin loses another endless friendship.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63271817
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - BlueDragon - 10-16-2022 03:41 PM
Not as long as we have a panty waste for a President who wants to toss the Iranian Government billions so they can stop wink wink developing nuclear weapons. The overall ignorance of this administration is mind boggling.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Fo Shizzle - 10-16-2022 04:14 PM
What happens...happens. Regardless... The West should stay the F out of it. Let Iranian people decide this. We can help later if the regime change occurs. I imagine there are still plenty of people there that vividly remember post revolution Iran or have been listening to their parents talk about the freedoms and prosperity they used to have. Oppression never outlast freedom. It's just a matter of time.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Todor - 10-16-2022 04:42 PM
(10-16-2022 04:14 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote: What happens...happens. Regardless... The West should stay the F out of it. Let Iranian people decide this. We can help later if the regime change occurs. I imagine there are still plenty of people there that vividly remember post revolution Iran or have been listening to their parents talk about the freedoms and prosperity they used to have. Oppression never outlast freedom. It's just a matter of time.
Well, those that survived the Shah’s regime of US supported torture and executions that lead to this current regime might remember.
The US and British remember the fortunes they made off Iran’s oil, and Iranians remember who their tiny, minuscule share went to in Iranian society. And that’s also how we ended up with the anti American regime they have now. It didn’t just spontaneously appear out of nowhere you know.
If they do choose a new path that retains an independent foreign policy and central bank, we will most likely provoke another war with them like we used Saddam Hussein. All those chemical weapons he killed so many Iranians all came from us. And we’ll do it again in a heartbeat if we can’t control their next government.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Kyle Mack - 10-16-2022 04:53 PM
Citizens there don't have guns so likely no.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - rath v2.0 - 10-16-2022 05:38 PM
What happened to the Islamic Spring? Someone get the jug eared idiot on this post haste.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Attackcoog - 10-16-2022 07:33 PM
(10-16-2022 02:35 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote: Seems like the different protesters with different interests are now supporting each other. The 'my standard of living crowd' are supporting the 'my civil rights crowd.' Women are taking off their heads scarf and cutting their hair while inflation is going to hit 50%. The the government attempting to blame the West, specifically the United States, doesn't seems to be carrying the day. Despite the crackdowns and murders the protests won't go away. And it appears that people in general are now beginning to realize that something bigger is going on .,. it's time to pick sides. One problem had to be resolved by the rioters is that there doesn't seem to be a central charismatic person to organize around. Get that solved and I bet it's off to the races for regime change. And Putin loses another endless friendship.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63271817
I doubt it. That regime really doesnt care how many die as long as they get to hold on to power. A regime can withstand an awful lot when it maintains that kind of ruthless attitude.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - bullet - 10-16-2022 07:35 PM
(10-16-2022 02:35 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote: Seems like the different protesters with different interests are now supporting each other. The 'my standard of living crowd' are supporting the 'my civil rights crowd.' Women are taking off their heads scarf and cutting their hair while inflation is going to hit 50%. The the government attempting to blame the West, specifically the United States, doesn't seems to be carrying the day. Despite the crackdowns and murders the protests won't go away. And it appears that people in general are now beginning to realize that something bigger is going on .,. it's time to pick sides. One problem had to be resolved by the rioters is that there doesn't seem to be a central charismatic person to organize around. Get that solved and I bet it's off to the races for regime change. And Putin loses another endless friendship.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63271817
The Kurds are mobilizing.
I'm not real optimistic, but its possible.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - banker - 10-16-2022 07:58 PM
(10-16-2022 04:42 PM)Todor Wrote:(10-16-2022 04:14 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote: What happens...happens. Regardless... The West should stay the F out of it. Let Iranian people decide this. We can help later if the regime change occurs. I imagine there are still plenty of people there that vividly remember post revolution Iran or have been listening to their parents talk about the freedoms and prosperity they used to have. Oppression never outlast freedom. It's just a matter of time.
Well, those that survived the Shah’s regime of US supported torture and executions that lead to this current regime might remember.
The US and British remember the fortunes they made off Iran’s oil, and Iranians remember who their tiny, minuscule share went to in Iranian society. And that’s also how we ended up with the anti American regime they have now. It didn’t just spontaneously appear out of nowhere you know.
If they do choose a new path that retains an independent foreign policy and central bank, we will most likely provoke another war with them like we used Saddam Hussein. All those chemical weapons he killed so many Iranians all came from us. And we’ll do it again in a heartbeat if we can’t control their next government.
Yeah, looking at life in Iran in the 1970s, it was terrible. All those people making their own choices, women going to college, rising standards of living. It was a nightmare.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Owl 69/70/75 - 10-16-2022 08:04 PM
The big problem is that the USA tends to assume that those people want a western lifestyle and that therefore we should focus on helping them westernize. But they, or at least a sizable minority if not a majority of them, simply do not want that. The Shah was westernizing Iran, and doing so very rapidly. The mullahs didn't want that and led a revolution against it.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - banker - 10-16-2022 08:17 PM
(10-16-2022 08:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: The big problem is that the USA tends to assume that those people want a western lifestyle and that therefore we should focus on helping them westernize. But they, or at least a sizable minority if not a majority of them, simply do not want that. The Shah was westernizing Iran, and doing so very rapidly. The mullahs didn't want that and led a revolution against it.
It’s a correct assumption. It is only opposed by the ones that maintain power through strict religious adherence and their most zealous followers.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Todor - 10-16-2022 08:26 PM
(10-16-2022 07:58 PM)banker Wrote:(10-16-2022 04:42 PM)Todor Wrote:(10-16-2022 04:14 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote: What happens...happens. Regardless... The West should stay the F out of it. Let Iranian people decide this. We can help later if the regime change occurs. I imagine there are still plenty of people there that vividly remember post revolution Iran or have been listening to their parents talk about the freedoms and prosperity they used to have. Oppression never outlast freedom. It's just a matter of time.
Well, those that survived the Shah’s regime of US supported torture and executions that lead to this current regime might remember.
The US and British remember the fortunes they made off Iran’s oil, and Iranians remember who their tiny, minuscule share went to in Iranian society. And that’s also how we ended up with the anti American regime they have now. It didn’t just spontaneously appear out of nowhere you know.
If they do choose a new path that retains an independent foreign policy and central bank, we will most likely provoke another war with them like we used Saddam Hussein. All those chemical weapons he killed so many Iranians all came from us. And we’ll do it again in a heartbeat if we can’t control their next government.
Yeah, looking at life in Iran in the 1970s, it was terrible. All those people making their own choices, women going to college, rising standards of living. It was a nightmare.
All true. In fact, things were so great, they had a revolution to celebrate. And in all of those pictures of the revolution, the one striking thing is how happy they all looked. I thought it was Mardi Gras at first glance.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Todor - 10-16-2022 08:30 PM
(10-16-2022 08:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: The big problem is that the USA tends to assume that those people want a western lifestyle and that therefore we should focus on helping them westernize. But they, or at least a sizable minority if not a majority of them, simply do not want that. The Shah was westernizing Iran, and doing so very rapidly. The mullahs didn't want that and led a revolution against it.
Of course the 1% who had all the power and money didn’t want to have to live with any Islamic moral or social restrictions. They wanted corrupt, western hedonism like many people with too much money do.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Fo Shizzle - 10-17-2022 05:22 AM
(10-16-2022 08:30 PM)Todor Wrote:(10-16-2022 08:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: The big problem is that the USA tends to assume that those people want a western lifestyle and that therefore we should focus on helping them westernize. But they, or at least a sizable minority if not a majority of them, simply do not want that. The Shah was westernizing Iran, and doing so very rapidly. The mullahs didn't want that and led a revolution against it.
Of course the 1% who had all the power and money didn’t want to have to live with any Islamic moral or social restrictions. They wanted corrupt, western hedonism like many people with too much money do.
Evidently after decades of oppression the women have decided that freedom is more important to them. Sorry that disappoints you.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Owl 69/70/75 - 10-17-2022 05:46 AM
(10-16-2022 08:30 PM)Todor Wrote:(10-16-2022 08:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: The big problem is that the USA tends to assume that those people want a western lifestyle and that therefore we should focus on helping them westernize. But they, or at least a sizable minority if not a majority of them, simply do not want that. The Shah was westernizing Iran, and doing so very rapidly. The mullahs didn't want that and led a revolution against it.Of course the 1% who had all the power and money didn’t want to have to live with any Islamic moral or social restrictions. They wanted corrupt, western hedonism like many people with too much money do.
Ever flown from Amsterdam to anywhere in Saudi? You have a lot of olive-skinned women in cut-offs and halter-tops boarding. About an hour out, the lines form at the restrooms, and by the time you land they're all in burkhas.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - TIGERCITY - 10-17-2022 09:00 AM
(10-16-2022 07:35 PM)bullet Wrote:(10-16-2022 02:35 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote: Seems like the different protesters with different interests are now supporting each other. The 'my standard of living crowd' are supporting the 'my civil rights crowd.' Women are taking off their heads scarf and cutting their hair while inflation is going to hit 50%. The the government attempting to blame the West, specifically the United States, doesn't seems to be carrying the day. Despite the crackdowns and murders the protests won't go away. And it appears that people in general are now beginning to realize that something bigger is going on .,. it's time to pick sides. One problem had to be resolved by the rioters is that there doesn't seem to be a central charismatic person to organize around. Get that solved and I bet it's off to the races for regime change. And Putin loses another endless friendship.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63271817
The Kurds are mobilizing.
I'm not real optimistic, but its possible.
Well it's not just the Kurds. This is turned into a nationwide protest among various ethnic groups and it has lasted now for almost a month. The Iranian authorities are now killing its own people some of which are children.... high school students. Fuel. Much harder to rally around the flag for that. Authoritarians rule by a few things but one of them is certainly fear. The fact that this protest is now a month long and Nation wide tells me that fear is less and less on the side of the current regime. But yeah the Iranian government wants to blame it on the 'breakaway' Kurds and we all can see why. And they want to blame it on the 'satanic' United States. It doesn't seem the street is buying those narratives anymore. So what do we have here? We have a hard line government that will not give an inch. They are the government of God after all. And we have protesters in the street across the nation some of which want their heads. We'll see what happens. But I don't think this is going away.... even if there is a pause. Remember that the protest against the Shah began in 1977, took a mini break in 1978, government fell in 79. The grievances didn't go away in 1978 they were suppressed
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Captain Bearcat - 10-17-2022 06:19 PM
One of my good friends at work is Iranian. He says 80-85% of the country is against their government.
But the regime is strongly supported by the Army, Republican Guard, and police. Hunters are allowed to own guns, but those aren't weapons of war. There's little chance of regime change without making inroads into support from the Army & police to oppose the Republican Guard.
The country is only about 60% Persian speaking (and that includes some related languages). Parts of the country are extremely rural, as in villages-with-no-cars rural. But the capital has 16 million people and is arguably the most educated city on the Asian mainland outside of Israel & Seoul.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - bullet - 10-18-2022 05:47 PM
Maybe the Azeris are getting restless. There are several predominately Azeri regions in the north with more Azeris in Iran than Kurds.
https://www.understandingwar.org/
"...The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) began a three-day military exercise along the Iran-Azerbaijan border on October 17 likely to threaten Azerbaijan for allegedly hosting Israeli intelligence agents. The IRGC is using this exercise to demonstrate its capability to attack Azerbaijan and strike targets in Azerbaijani territory. The exercise includes artillery, helicopters, tanks, and missiles. The IRGC announced plans to practice bridging the river that divides Iran and Azerbaijan for the first time during this exercise. The IRGC is using the Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile, which has a reported operational range of 120 kilometers, in this exercise. IRGC-affiliated media boasted that the IRGC has previously used these missiles for cross-border attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan. An IRGC-affiliated journalist tweeted that the exercise signals the readiness of the IRGC to confront Azerbaijan...."
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - Todor - 10-18-2022 06:56 PM
(10-17-2022 06:19 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: One of my good friends at work is Iranian. He says 80-85% of the country is against their government.
But the regime is strongly supported by the Army, Republican Guard, and police. Hunters are allowed to own guns, but those aren't weapons of war. There's little chance of regime change without making inroads into support from the Army & police to oppose the Republican Guard.
The country is only about 60% Persian speaking (and that includes some related languages). Parts of the country are extremely rural, as in villages-with-no-cars rural. But the capital has 16 million people and is arguably the most educated city on the Asian mainland outside of Israel & Seoul.
Irans government is not widely popular, however, the people who dislike it enough to emigrate may not be a good judge of the overall mood of the country. If he had the money and education to be able to move abroad to work (and quite possibly study abroad before that) he may not be an average, common person.
RE: Is the Iranian government getting ready to topple? - olliebaba - 10-18-2022 07:00 PM
(10-16-2022 08:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: The big problem is that the USA tends to assume that those people want a western lifestyle and that therefore we should focus on helping them westernize. But they, or at least a sizable minority if not a majority of them, simply do not want that. The Shah was westernizing Iran, and doing so very rapidly. The mullahs didn't want that and led a revolution against it.
So, you're saying that the people in Iran installed a despotic ruler aka the Ayatollah and now don't like it. Wow, that sounds like many Demon(crats) are thinking the same afterall, no one can tell me that the Slow One, aka THE SOB was legitimately elected. Two uprisings come November.