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+---- Thread: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates (/thread-953932.html)
Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - Hokie4Skins - 08-29-2022 12:45 PM
San Diego State: 2 to 1
SMU: 4 to 1
UNLV: 5 to 1
Boise State: 6 to 1
Fresno State: 8 to 1
Big 12 schools: 10 to 1
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-expansion-scenarios?fbclid=IwAR1sFX5-8P3sgIngunkZGWSv7w_ddiK4ruZN5AD6376i2DLpGB0MrjmBBhE&triedSigningIn=true&mibextid=li3ck7
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - Kit-Cat - 08-29-2022 12:53 PM
I told you Boise was in front of Fresno.
Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - IWokeUpLikeThis - 08-29-2022 01:21 PM
(08-29-2022 12:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.
Yeah, I think the B1G's decision is coming before any PAC expansion, so it's a moot point.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - CardinalJim - 08-29-2022 01:22 PM
I found this comment interesting.
I like how he said ESPN didn’t want to “disrupt” college football
That’s all ESPN has done for the last 20 years.
“ There’s the matter of Big 12 bylaws, which potentially penalizes departing members to the tune of about $76 million. But there’s a tricky workaround there. The conference bylaws also allow for the Big 12 to be dissolved with only eight votes. Texas and Oklahoma are already there. That only leaves six votes to get and there would be no penalty.
If the Pac-12 poached Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas and Kansas State, the Big 12 would disband. I don’t think this is going to happen. In part, because I don’t believe ESPN wants to further disrupt the teetering ecosystem.”
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - BeatWestern! - 08-29-2022 01:23 PM
(08-29-2022 01:21 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:(08-29-2022 12:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.
Yeah, I think the B1G's decision is coming before any PAC expansion, so it's a moot point.
Yes, I agree, Oregon and Washington on deck!
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - Big 12 fan too - 08-29-2022 01:30 PM
(08-29-2022 01:22 PM)CardinalJim Wrote: I found this comment interesting.
I like how he said ESPN didn’t want to “disrupt” college football
That’s all ESPN has done for the last 20 years.
“ There’s the matter of Big 12 bylaws, which potentially penalizes departing members to the tune of about $76 million. But there’s a tricky workaround there. The conference bylaws also allow for the Big 12 to be dissolved with only eight votes. Texas and Oklahoma are already there. That only leaves six votes to get and there would be no penalty.
If the Pac-12 poached Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas and Kansas State, the Big 12 would disband. I don’t think this is going to happen. In part, because I don’t believe ESPN wants to further disrupt the teetering ecosystem.”
That’s not accurate, and even if he had it correct, moot, as the PAC isn’t poaching. It’ feckless
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - Skyhawk - 08-29-2022 01:31 PM
(08-29-2022 01:23 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:(08-29-2022 01:21 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:(08-29-2022 12:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.
Yeah, I think the B1G's decision is coming before any PAC expansion, so it's a moot point.
Yes, I agree, Oregon and Washington on deck!
Or they leave the PAC mostly intact, and only take Stanford and Arizona state. Then the PAC survives to backfill.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - Frank the Tank - 08-29-2022 01:32 PM
(08-29-2022 01:22 PM)CardinalJim Wrote: I found this comment interesting.
I like how he said ESPN didn’t want to “disrupt” college football
That’s all ESPN has done for the last 20 years.
“ There’s the matter of Big 12 bylaws, which potentially penalizes departing members to the tune of about $76 million. But there’s a tricky workaround there. The conference bylaws also allow for the Big 12 to be dissolved with only eight votes. Texas and Oklahoma are already there. That only leaves six votes to get and there would be no penalty.
If the Pac-12 poached Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas and Kansas State, the Big 12 would disband. I don’t think this is going to happen. In part, because I don’t believe ESPN wants to further disrupt the teetering ecosystem.”
I’ve looked at the Big 12 bylaws - the key point is that the vote needs to be 3/4 of “disinterested” members. Any school that is attempting to either leave the conference and/or circumvent the league’s GOR can be immediately be suspended by the other members from voting. UT and OU are unable to vote as Big 12 members anymore due to their announced departure, so they *cannot* vote on dissolution. That’s the problem with all of the proposals that think dissolution is some clever loophole for departing schools to avoid exit penalties. The bylaws in the Big 12 were written to account for that very scenario.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - DavidSt - 08-29-2022 01:37 PM
Big 10 won't add anybody else until they get Notre Dame. That is the hold up right now.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - RUScarlets - 08-29-2022 01:42 PM
(08-29-2022 12:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: I told you Boise was in front of Fresno.
Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.
If they are able to add SMU and SDSU now, when those 4 move to the B1G, the rest of the PAC (notably OSU/WSU/SDSU/SMU/???) would be able to cherry pick the remaining backfills from the MWC. That way, Kliavkoff and the rest of the PAC12 people can keep their jobs long term... albeit at a much reduced pay.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - CitrusUCF - 08-29-2022 01:43 PM
(08-29-2022 12:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: I told you Boise was in front of Fresno.
Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.
The PAC-12, even if it's just a few members, will be able to raid the Mountain West and CUSA, and perhaps the American. It's an Autonomy Conference, and that has value, and that standing doesn't just go away because their membership no longer looks like a "P5." They'll take the most valuable properties available and leave the weaker members (like San Jose St) behind.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - Kyle Mack - 08-29-2022 01:47 PM
(08-29-2022 12:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: I told you Boise was in front of Fresno.
Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.
Didn't know Canzano had his odds book in the bible.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - bullet - 08-29-2022 01:56 PM
(08-29-2022 12:45 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote: San Diego State: 2 to 1
SMU: 4 to 1
UNLV: 5 to 1
Boise State: 6 to 1
Fresno State: 8 to 1
Big 12 schools: 10 to 1
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-expansion-scenarios?fbclid=IwAR1sFX5-8P3sgIngunkZGWSv7w_ddiK4ruZN5AD6376i2DLpGB0MrjmBBhE&triedSigningIn=true&mibextid=li3ck7
Note that he didn't talk to any presidents. He did talk to some ADs, but didn't say what conference they were in.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - HawaiiMongoose - 08-29-2022 02:00 PM
(08-29-2022 01:43 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:(08-29-2022 12:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: I told you Boise was in front of Fresno.
Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.
The PAC-12, even if it's just a few members, will be able to raid the Mountain West and CUSA, and perhaps the American. It's an Autonomy Conference, and that has value, and that standing doesn't just go away because their membership no longer looks like a "P5." They'll take the most valuable properties available and leave the weaker members (like San Jose St) behind.
What’s the cash value of having Autonomy Conference status in name only? Would it be high enough to convince half a dozen or more MWC members to each pay the MWC’s $16.5 million exit fee?
https://mwwire.com/2022/07/21/mountain-west-schools-could-pay-a-buyout-of-up-to-33-million/
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - Huan - 08-29-2022 02:03 PM
(08-29-2022 12:45 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote: San Diego State: 2 to 1
SMU: 4 to 1
UNLV: 5 to 1
Boise State: 6 to 1
Fresno State: 8 to 1
Big 12 schools: 10 to 1
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-expansion-scenarios?fbclid=IwAR1sFX5-8P3sgIngunkZGWSv7w_ddiK4ruZN5AD6376i2DLpGB0MrjmBBhE&triedSigningIn=true&mibextid=li3ck7
willful ignorance or intentionally deceptive.
sad either way.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - RUScarlets - 08-29-2022 02:09 PM
(08-29-2022 02:00 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote: What’s the cash value of having Autonomy Conference status in name only? Would it be high enough to convince half a dozen or more MWC members to each pay the MWC’s $16.5 million exit fee?
https://mwwire.com/2022/07/21/mountain-west-schools-could-pay-a-buyout-of-up-to-33-million/
If that's the exit fee, then SDSU odds should be 10 to 1. They are getting 15 million per year max assuming the remaining 10 stay together. That's 1 year of dead money. They'd only break even (from current MWC distributions) at the end of year 2. So unless they are able to lock in a GoR through the current B1G deal, it's not worth it.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - Section 200 - 08-29-2022 02:11 PM
If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - IWokeUpLikeThis - 08-29-2022 02:14 PM
(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote: If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.
Yep. People who think an autonomous conference will disband while a bunch of G5 schools won't jump at the opportunity to take their most valuable, shed their least valuable, gain 2 P5 schools, and gain autonomy are in for a rude awakening.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - bullet - 08-29-2022 02:17 PM
(08-29-2022 02:14 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote: If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.
Yep. People who think an autonomous conference will disband while a bunch of G5 schools won't jump at the opportunity to take their most valuable, shed their least valuable, gain 2 P5 schools, and gain autonomy are in for a rude awakening.
The Pac 2 would lose its autonomy. Those are 2 of the 5 most marginal P5 schools.
A Pac 8 or maybe even a 6 Pac wouldn't.
RE: Canzano’s odds on PAC expansion candidates - RUScarlets - 08-29-2022 02:27 PM
(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote: If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.
I think the MWC pecking order is:
1. SDSU
2. Fresno
3. CSU
4. BSU
5. AFA
6. UNLV
7. UNM
8. Utah St
9. Nevada
10. Wyoming
11. Hawaii
12. SJSU
I think Hawaii can jump way higher if the MWC can grab Zaga as a 12th BBall school. Otherwise, I see WSU/OSU stopping with the top 8.
I think UH abandons football and the rest drop down to FCS. And if that all happens, that's the last time I ever want to here G5 schools complaining about greed, anti-trust, collusion, or whatever buzz word that fits the week. It's pure greed if we don't see a straight 14 team merger of the MWC. There is no branding advantage with the PAC that doesn't have the Rose Bowl or the academic prestige.