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Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - JRsec - 04-04-2022 01:48 AM
Kansas and North Carolina end basketball season tomorrow. We will begin what always appears to be the quiet season. It isn't. More things, including realignment discussions, get done in the still of Summer than people realize. I suspect this Summer to be rife with behind-the-scenes machinations. The reasons will be discussed but suffice it as a preface to say the national and international political and financial scenes offer any number of precarious possibilities and everyone realizes money, due to inflation, is going to be tight. They also understand demographics, namely the Boomers will not be pushing trends societally beyond 2035. This means ticket sales for college athletics will continue to drop placing more dependence upon media deals for revenue. Loose translation, Networks will have an ever-increasing power in structuring college sports and no doubt will do so to meet their own goals.
Conferences will still lay out parameters, but in a quasi-professional pay for play world where basketball monetization will be important, and separation from the NCAA
essential to accomplishing it, how conferences are structured will likely be handled in a manner which ensures full seasonal fare, and at quality, for the Networks.
Make no mistake football will be King, but hoops will be Queen, and diamond sports a Jack. Branding will be the Ace. Into this milieu these things will be impactful, and massive change more likely. And for reasons I will enumerate. If you are one who is banking on status quo for the next 14 years you may wish to avert your eyes.
1. NIL and Pay for Play Will be a factor at the Network, Conference, and School Level
The advent of these legal rulings will render moot the organizing principle of the NCAA, amateurism, end some, at this point, really stupid violation charges against some schools, and make monetizing hoops an essential, which means beyond NCAA control. Think football after OU/UGa vs the NCAA 1983 different.
Corporate NIL money will play into advertising revenues, likely creating some synergy which Schools and Conferences might also share if players are shown in school jerseys, using settings with conference logos, etc. So, all revenue and some non-revenue sports could see a financial tide which lifts and benefits all 3. Making sure the NCAA doesn't try to horn in eliminates a complication and another mouth to feed.
2. While Money will be a motivation for movement, it won't be the only major reason. Surviving in the Highest Division of play will also be a major motivator.
$40-50 million gaps between the SEC / B1G and the B12/ ACC / PAC will cause movement. This represents a gap of 400 million to a half billion over the coming decade. Major schools have moved for 20 million tops and much less so far. There will be movement.
The unspoken part of this will be driven by a downsizing and streamlining of higher education which is well under way. Texas in part move to again distinguish themselves from all other Texas schools but A&M. Oklahoma moved in part to remain the dominant school in Oklahoma. Many might shake their heads over this assertion but being in conferences comprised of state flagship schools of academic standing and with sports brand recognition will be key is setting themselves apart. Schools like North Carolina, Virginia, and Kansas will want to do the same. But moves can't be made against fan culture, old rivals and annual games. For this reason, the SEC will be attractive to each of these. Brand name privates will also seek being set apart with distinction. Duke, Notre Dame, USC, and Stanford may avail themselves of the funding and elite company as things move forward.
This is an era ending and era beginning shift and administrations know this.
To make this mass transition easier politically, I look for a third conference comprised or 2nd state schools from smaller states or 3rd schools from larger states, and well known and prominent privates which aren't nationally dominant.
A 20-24 member SEC and Big 10 would not be out of the question. A third conference of like size would be practical. N.C. State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State, and privates like Miami, Boston College, Syracuse, Baylor, and TCU fit here as well along with a hybrid like Pitt and a small state Flagship like WVU, and some top up and comers.
Why? The Flagships can't leave them behind or take them with them. Their inclusion preserves important in state rivalries and makes the transition possible. So, they will be included, perhaps with a nice bump in pay, just not at SEC & B1G levels, and they will offer networks a solid product which can be marketed well.
3. Basketball will play a bigger part in selections, as will national branding, and state flagship status.
Basketball first state flagships have the branding and with a earning potential 2.25 times what they earn now under the NCAA. They are valuable and provide balance for top heavy football scheduling.
4. Size of conference will only be determined by what is profitable. No NCAA, no restrictions on how a conference is structured.
With no structure requirements larger conferences add profit with conference semis, more inventory, and expenses share with many more, and by the elimination of duplicated conference overhead. A P3 has much less administrative overhead without 5 conferences and adds to their bargaining strength with numbers.
5. Network Rights desires will Trump Conference wants. And Networks will determine profitability.
Look for networks to encourage consolidation in order to market the most popular brands over larger market footprints which impacts ad revenues. Old valuations on who is profitable will be moot. Networks will pay for market reach and market penetration, and for a greater versatility in scheduling.
Networks will encourage playoff expansion. A new model will profit all and since conference semis will be the profit of the conference taking the 12 divisional champs the 3 champs will automatically be included with the next best seeded, and 4 more at large bids issued. This will mean some conference runners up will get new life.
6. GORs may not play a part, but even if the do movement within a network family can be managed at the Network / Conference level.
GOR's may be rendered moot by Pay for Play. If not if everyone earns more movement is possible. If few if any of current P5 schools are left out there will be no monetary loss, and no loss of inclusion. No damage, no damages. If ESPN & FOX and any other network likes their lineup we move without fear.
7. Expect 2 truly super conferences and 1 which is paid less but has access and earns more than any of its members do now.
So, time frame? As early as 2023 on some moves, likely 2025 if movement is wholesale and at once. It takes time to work out new schedules.
Money, Law, Recession and Inflation, Demographics, and Resources say we move in this direction. And, the sooner the better.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - Thiefery - 04-04-2022 07:12 AM
I'm hoping that UT/ou announce this summer, that this will be the last season that they are part of the Big12.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - Wahoowa84 - 04-04-2022 10:00 AM
Seems like all the macro trends are just encouraging more consolidation. Larger groups of like-minded universities would be able to better leverage negotiations with media providers.
One scenario that seems consistent with all these trends…
A) The PAC and B1G merge to form a 24 team super-conference
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA
Mountains & Plains - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa
Upper Midwest - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan and MSU
East - Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland
B) The SEC moves east and towards monetizing basketball with a 20 team super-conference
East - Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Miami
West - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M
C) The ACC, Notre Dame and ESPN rebuild a viable third option with key additions from the B12. This is a 16 team (including non-football ND).
South - Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State and Wake
Central - Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State
East - Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Boston College
Notre Dame continues its annual 5 game commitment by rotating through each division. If programs from other conferences build compelling brands, then this conference can still grow.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - BePcr07 - 04-04-2022 11:15 AM
B1G and SEC balloon to 24 each:
B1G - Rutgers + California, Colorado, Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Virginia, Washington
SEC + Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
Best of the Rest merge:
AAC: Memphis, SMU, South Florida, Temple
ACC: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
PAC: Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St
XII: Baylor, BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Alignment:
B1G
Central: Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
East: Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Penn St, Virginia
North: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue
West: California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington
SEC
Central: Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
East: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, South Carolina
West: Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
XIV
Central: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
East: Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Temple, West Virginia
South: Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, Wake Forest
West: Arizona, Arizona, St, BYU, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - JRsec - 04-04-2022 12:31 PM
(04-04-2022 11:15 AM)BePcr07 Wrote: B1G and SEC balloon to 24 each:
B1G - Rutgers + California, Colorado, Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Virginia, Washington
SEC + Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
Best of the Rest merge:
AAC: Memphis, SMU, South Florida, Temple
ACC: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
PAC: Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St
XII: Baylor, BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Alignment:
B1G
Central: Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
East: Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Penn St, Virginia
North: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue
West: California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington
SEC
Central: Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
East: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, South Carolina
West: Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
XIV
Central: Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
East: Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Temple, West Virginia
South: Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, Wake Forest
West: Arizona, Arizona, St, BYU, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St
1. I have historical and current reasons to believe that Duke, UNC, and likely Virginia would stay in a more Southern conference. Contractually ESPN would play a role, and culturally they are still connected, and demographically they have more to gain with ties to Texas and Florida.
2. Most PAC schools will stick together. I see too many issues with fewer than 9 moving, culturally and legally. There is an odd mathematical problem which wouldn't allow for equal access when you divide too many in the current PAC 12.
I see the 9 AAU schools plus ND as one option for the B1G, 9 AAU schools plus ASU as another, and 9 AAU PAC schools and Kansas as another.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - Wahoowa84 - 04-04-2022 01:51 PM
(04-04-2022 10:00 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: Seems like all the macro trends are just encouraging more consolidation. Larger groups of like-minded universities would be able to better leverage negotiations with media providers.
One scenario that seems consistent with all these trends…
A) The PAC and B1G merge to form a 24 team super-conference
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA
Mountains & Plains - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa
Upper Midwest - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan and MSU
East - Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland
B) The SEC moves east and towards monetizing basketball with a 20 team super-conference
East - Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Miami
West - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M
C) The ACC, Notre Dame and ESPN rebuild a viable third option with key additions from the B12. This is a 16 team (including non-football ND).
South - Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State and Wake
Central - Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State
East - Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Boston College
Notre Dame continues its annual 5 game commitment by rotating through each division. If programs from other conferences build compelling brands, then this conference can still grow.
Second scenario in this same mindset…the Alliance actually forms to transform collegiate athletics.
A) B1G accommodates schools from both coasts to form a 28-member national conference.
East - Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana
Midwest - Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska
Atlantic - Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Colorado
B) SEC prefers to only add four schools that augments its cultural and regional footprint. The 20-team SEC includes Kansas, Virginia Tech, NC State and Clemson.
.
C) Others from the ACC, B12 & PAC join together for a second national conference,
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake, WVU and UCF
Central - Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and Houston
West - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State, BYU and San Diego State
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - Fighting Muskie - 04-04-2022 02:49 PM
I think the 3rd, tweener conference described by JR will largely be dependent on which camp UVA/UNC/Duke cast their lot with. If they choose the Big 10, NC St and VT become SEC schools, the ACC’s leftovers get absorbed by the Big 12, and the PAC 12 potentially stays pat.
Any partial merger between Pac 12 members and the Big 10 is going to be done on the Big 10’s terms and they’ll aim to take as few as they need. The PAC 12 schools simply don’t have the same value that those Midwestern land grants and flagships have.
I wouldn’t be surprised if ADs and presidents in the ACC have already had hushed, behind closed door talks on their exit strategies and how to blow up the league without paying exit fees or be beholden to a GOR.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - JRsec - 04-04-2022 02:56 PM
(04-04-2022 01:51 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-04-2022 10:00 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: Seems like all the macro trends are just encouraging more consolidation. Larger groups of like-minded universities would be able to better leverage negotiations with media providers.
One scenario that seems consistent with all these trends…
A) The PAC and B1G merge to form a 24 team super-conference
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA
Mountains & Plains - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa
Upper Midwest - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan and MSU
East - Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland
B) The SEC moves east and towards monetizing basketball with a 20 team super-conference
East - Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Miami
West - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M
C) The ACC, Notre Dame and ESPN rebuild a viable third option with key additions from the B12. This is a 16 team (including non-football ND).
South - Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State and Wake
Central - Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State
East - Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Boston College
Notre Dame continues its annual 5 game commitment by rotating through each division. If programs from other conferences build compelling brands, then this conference can still grow.
Second scenario in this same mindset…the Alliance actually forms to transform collegiate athletics.
A) B1G accommodates schools from both coasts to form a 28-member national conference.
East - Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana
Midwest - Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska
Atlantic - Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Colorado
B) SEC prefers to only add four schools that augments its cultural and regional footprint. The 20-team SEC includes Kansas, Virginia Tech, NC State and Clemson.
.
C) Others from the ACC, B12 & PAC join together for a second national conference,
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake, WVU and UCF
Central - Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and Houston
West - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State, BYU and San Diego State
What Alliance? The one in support of the NCAA, amateurism, and a botched scheduling alliance? The organizers are networks, the conferences are a brand label, and a collective product, and realignment the arrangement and culling of the product line. There are no ideals involved. It's simply business and pay for play and NIL negated any semblance of idealism which may have remained, and that wasn't very much at all. The NCAA served itself. Amateurism was a myth. And college sports have never been clean.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - Wahoowa84 - 04-04-2022 03:50 PM
(04-04-2022 02:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:The third scenario is the SEC-led, and ESPN-financed, Southern brands strategy.(04-04-2022 01:51 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-04-2022 10:00 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: Seems like all the macro trends are just encouraging more consolidation. Larger groups of like-minded universities would be able to better leverage negotiations with media providers.
One scenario that seems consistent with all these trends…
A) The PAC and B1G merge to form a 24 team super-conference
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA
Mountains & Plains - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa
Upper Midwest - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan and MSU
East - Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland
B) The SEC moves east and towards monetizing basketball with a 20 team super-conference
East - Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Miami
West - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M
C) The ACC, Notre Dame and ESPN rebuild a viable third option with key additions from the B12. This is a 16 team (including non-football ND).
South - Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State and Wake
Central - Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State
East - Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Boston College
Notre Dame continues its annual 5 game commitment by rotating through each division. If programs from other conferences build compelling brands, then this conference can still grow.
Second scenario in this same mindset…the Alliance actually forms to transform collegiate athletics.
A) B1G accommodates schools from both coasts to form a 28-member national conference.
East - Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana
Midwest - Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska
Atlantic - Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Colorado
B) SEC prefers to only add four schools that augments its cultural and regional footprint. The 20-team SEC includes Kansas, Virginia Tech, NC State and Clemson.
.
C) Others from the ACC, B12 & PAC join together for a second national conference,
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake, WVU and UCF
Central - Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and Houston
West - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State, BYU and San Diego State
What Alliance? The one in support of the NCAA, amateurism, and a botched scheduling alliance? The organizers are networks, the conferences are a brand label, and a collective product, and realignment the arrangement and culling of the product line. There are no ideals involved. It's simply business and pay for play and NIL negated any semblance of idealism which may have remained, and that wasn't very much at all. The NCAA served itself. Amateurism was a myth. And college sports have never been clean.
A) SEC (@ 24 universities) secures the Southern footprint and basketball with UVa, VT, UNC, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Kansas.
B) B1G (@ 24) reacts by cornering Notre Dame plus nine from the PAC (Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Utah and Colorado)
C) The remaining schools with brand-value then combine for a 16-team grouping
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, NC State, Wake, Georgia Tech and WVU
West - BYU, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State
It's not realistic to expect this group to make more than their current levels.
Unfortunately, all three scenarios break-up the current ACC.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - JRsec - 04-04-2022 04:08 PM
(04-04-2022 03:50 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-04-2022 02:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:The third scenario is the SEC-led, and ESPN-financed, Southern brands strategy.(04-04-2022 01:51 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-04-2022 10:00 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: Seems like all the macro trends are just encouraging more consolidation. Larger groups of like-minded universities would be able to better leverage negotiations with media providers.
One scenario that seems consistent with all these trends…
A) The PAC and B1G merge to form a 24 team super-conference
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA
Mountains & Plains - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa
Upper Midwest - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan and MSU
East - Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland
B) The SEC moves east and towards monetizing basketball with a 20 team super-conference
East - Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Miami
West - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M
C) The ACC, Notre Dame and ESPN rebuild a viable third option with key additions from the B12. This is a 16 team (including non-football ND).
South - Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State and Wake
Central - Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State
East - Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Boston College
Notre Dame continues its annual 5 game commitment by rotating through each division. If programs from other conferences build compelling brands, then this conference can still grow.
Second scenario in this same mindset…the Alliance actually forms to transform collegiate athletics.
A) B1G accommodates schools from both coasts to form a 28-member national conference.
East - Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana
Midwest - Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska
Atlantic - Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Colorado
B) SEC prefers to only add four schools that augments its cultural and regional footprint. The 20-team SEC includes Kansas, Virginia Tech, NC State and Clemson.
.
C) Others from the ACC, B12 & PAC join together for a second national conference,
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake, WVU and UCF
Central - Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and Houston
West - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State, BYU and San Diego State
What Alliance? The one in support of the NCAA, amateurism, and a botched scheduling alliance? The organizers are networks, the conferences are a brand label, and a collective product, and realignment the arrangement and culling of the product line. There are no ideals involved. It's simply business and pay for play and NIL negated any semblance of idealism which may have remained, and that wasn't very much at all. The NCAA served itself. Amateurism was a myth. And college sports have never been clean.
A) SEC (@ 24 universities) secures the Southern footprint and basketball with UVa, VT, UNC, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Kansas.
B) B1G (@ 24) reacts by cornering Notre Dame plus nine from the PAC (Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Utah and Colorado)
C) The remaining schools with brand-value then combine for a 16-team grouping
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, NC State, Wake, Georgia Tech and WVU
West - BYU, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State
It's not realistic to expect this group to make more than their current levels.
Unfortunately, all three scenarios break-up the current ACC.
I see this one as the more likely. ESPN will segregate by pay the two collections of properties they wish to retain. And all of the non-alliance scenarios break up the PAC as well. Money is the catalyst that changes things for the lesser paid. It's simply a transformative amount which schools will see as essential to keeping status.
BTW, I think it's a coin flip between Miami (3rd Fla school and a different piece of the Florida market), Georgia Tech (essentially 80% of Atlanta with UGa, Clemson & Auburn) which is AAU, and Louisville (top 15 revenue producer. I agree on the other 7. The wild card is what if ND doesn't opt Big10 and doesn't want a partial with the ACC/B12 merger due to which schools would be in it? What if they opted for the Neo-SoCon for recruiting and markets in a more Catholic region?
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - SouthEastAlaska - 04-04-2022 04:26 PM
A couple questions...
1) Who will decide to not compete at this level? I might be wrong but IMO there will be a couple universities that will self demote.
2) Are the networks going to allow dead weight to stay aligned with their current conferences? My example is Mississippi State, they really don't bring anything for football or basketball that say a school like Florida State could bring. Does the mouse allow schools like this to stay? MSU isn't the only one either...
3) Why only 3 conferences? I know someone is going to yell at me but I feel like symmetry rules in professional sports, There is equal divisions and conferences in all of the 4 major north American sports so why not in what would become the 5th?
4) What will be the the cue that we can all look to and know unequivocally that this massive transition has begun?
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - Transic_nyc - 04-04-2022 04:37 PM
(04-04-2022 02:49 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: I think the 3rd, tweener conference described by JR will largely be dependent on which camp UVA/UNC/Duke cast their lot with. If they choose the Big 10, NC St and VT become SEC schools, the ACC’s leftovers get absorbed by the Big 12, and the PAC 12 potentially stays pat.
Any partial merger between Pac 12 members and the Big 10 is going to be done on the Big 10’s terms and they’ll aim to take as few as they need. The PAC 12 schools simply don’t have the same value that those Midwestern land grants and flagships have.
I wouldn’t be surprised if ADs and presidents in the ACC have already had hushed, behind closed door talks on their exit strategies and how to blow up the league without paying exit fees or be beholden to a GOR.
I don't know about you but I am not interested in the perfect being the enemy of the good. Content and exposure to new eyeballs is the name of the game. Being in a glorified ghetto under JR's favorite scenario is a perfect recipe for continued stagnation. The population in the PAC area is younger than in the original Big 10 area. Currently, there is one region of the country that gets the vast majority of hype from corporate America and it's not the Midwest. Only Fox puts Big Ten football in a national conversation and CBS/Fox do the same with Big Ten basketball. Going literally national mitigates a lot of that. That's not to say we could absorb all the PAC. I don't know what the right number is but perhaps creating a deeper presence in both coasts can put us in a firmer footing, like Wahoowa is suggesting.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - Statefan - 04-04-2022 04:39 PM
If the ACC is broken up and NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, and BC are available why would they not go to a 28 school Big 10? Is it reasonable to assume the ptb in the B10 would not be interested the states of NC, NY, Mass or Georgia?
B10 Atlantic - BC (Or GT), Syracuse, Rutgers, PSU, Pitt, MD, NC State
B10 Central - ND, Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana, NW, Illinois
B10 Mid-West - Michigan State, Wisky, Minn, Iowa, Nebraksa, Colorado, Utah
B10 Pacific - Arizona, Cal, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Oregon
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - CFBLurker - 04-04-2022 05:04 PM
Conferences larger than sixteen are essentially scheduling partners and not conference mates. I just do not see them getting as large as twenty or twenty-four
There isn't going to be a grand consolidation like this, if consolidation of brands has to happen it'll be in a much messier scenario of league expulsions or dissolving entirely to exclude the lesser brands without lawsuits.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - JRsec - 04-04-2022 05:08 PM
(04-04-2022 04:26 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: A couple questions...
1) Who will decide to not compete at this level? I might be wrong but IMO there will be a couple universities that will self demote.
2) Are the networks going to allow dead weight to stay aligned with their current conferences? My example is Mississippi State, they really don't bring anything for football or basketball that say a school like Florida State could bring. Does the mouse allow schools like this to stay? MSU isn't the only one either...
3) Why only 3 conferences? I know someone is going to yell at me but I feel like symmetry rules in professional sports, There is equal divisions and conferences in all of the 4 major north American sports so why not in what would become the 5th?
4) What will be the the cue that we can all look to and know unequivocally that this massive transition has begun?
1. If anyone opts out they are just out. I'm not sure unless it is a B1G or SEC member that it would make much difference.
2. Mississippi State won the national championship in baseball last year, and recently enough was a final game away in Women's hoops. They are charter members and no one is mucking around with core SEC members or core B1G members which is just good fortune for some.
3. Why a P5 if we love symmetry? It will eventually be a P2, the third conference is a necessary transitional phase. Some will make it and some eventually will not but nature will decide that.
4. Unless you are blind it has already begun. NIL was one symptom, Texas and Oklahoma leaving is your cue, and Pay for Play will be the starting gun for the race for a place to which some have already been working.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - Statefan - 04-04-2022 05:14 PM
(04-04-2022 05:04 PM)CFBLurker Wrote: Conferences larger than sixteen are essentially scheduling partners and not conference mates. I just do not see them getting as large as twenty or twenty-four
There isn't going to be a grand consolidation like this, if consolidation of brands has to happen it'll be in a much messier scenario of league expulsions or dissolving entirely to exclude the lesser brands without lawsuits.
Semantics.
A 6-7-8 school division within a conference context is just a conference within a conference.
The SEC and ACC have not forgotten what happens with huge conferences - they split. Even though it has been 90 years, that's not forgotten. You stay together by having robust divisions that are themselves conferences.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - Wahoowa84 - 04-04-2022 05:55 PM
(04-04-2022 04:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:(04-04-2022 03:50 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-04-2022 02:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:The third scenario is the SEC-led, and ESPN-financed, Southern brands strategy.(04-04-2022 01:51 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-04-2022 10:00 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: Seems like all the macro trends are just encouraging more consolidation. Larger groups of like-minded universities would be able to better leverage negotiations with media providers.
One scenario that seems consistent with all these trends…
A) The PAC and B1G merge to form a 24 team super-conference
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA
Mountains & Plains - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa
Upper Midwest - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan and MSU
East - Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland
B) The SEC moves east and towards monetizing basketball with a 20 team super-conference
East - Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Miami
West - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M
C) The ACC, Notre Dame and ESPN rebuild a viable third option with key additions from the B12. This is a 16 team (including non-football ND).
South - Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State and Wake
Central - Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State
East - Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Boston College
Notre Dame continues its annual 5 game commitment by rotating through each division. If programs from other conferences build compelling brands, then this conference can still grow.
Second scenario in this same mindset…the Alliance actually forms to transform collegiate athletics.
A) B1G accommodates schools from both coasts to form a 28-member national conference.
East - Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana
Midwest - Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska
Atlantic - Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Colorado
B) SEC prefers to only add four schools that augments its cultural and regional footprint. The 20-team SEC includes Kansas, Virginia Tech, NC State and Clemson.
.
C) Others from the ACC, B12 & PAC join together for a second national conference,
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake, WVU and UCF
Central - Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and Houston
West - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State, BYU and San Diego State
What Alliance? The one in support of the NCAA, amateurism, and a botched scheduling alliance? The organizers are networks, the conferences are a brand label, and a collective product, and realignment the arrangement and culling of the product line. There are no ideals involved. It's simply business and pay for play and NIL negated any semblance of idealism which may have remained, and that wasn't very much at all. The NCAA served itself. Amateurism was a myth. And college sports have never been clean.
A) SEC (@ 24 universities) secures the Southern footprint and basketball with UVa, VT, UNC, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Kansas.
B) B1G (@ 24) reacts by cornering Notre Dame plus nine from the PAC (Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Utah and Colorado)
C) The remaining schools with brand-value then combine for a 16-team grouping
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, NC State, Wake, Georgia Tech and WVU
West - BYU, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State
It's not realistic to expect this group to make more than their current levels.
Unfortunately, all three scenarios break-up the current ACC.
I see this one as the more likely. ESPN will segregate by pay the two collections of properties they wish to retain. And all of the non-alliance scenarios break up the PAC as well. Money is the catalyst that changes things for the lesser paid. It's simply a transformative amount which schools will see as essential to keeping status.
BTW, I think it's a coin flip between Miami (3rd Fla school and a different piece of the Florida market), Georgia Tech (essentially 80% of Atlanta with UGa, Clemson & Auburn) which is AAU, and Louisville (top 15 revenue producer. I agree on the other 7. The wild card is what if ND doesn't opt Big10 and doesn't want a partial with the ACC/B12 merger due to which schools would be in it? What if they opted for the Neo-SoCon for recruiting and markets in a more Catholic region?
With regards to the coin-flip...
ESPN wants Miami (better viewership); UF and FSU support this preference (better rivalries); and football coaches will make their preferences known (better recruits).
Academics will favor Georgia Tech; lots of historical rivals may concur (Georgia, Clemson, Auburn, Alabama & Tennessee could all financially leverage games in the big city); and the ACC blue bloods would support this addition.
Even though revenues are impressive, I don't believe that Louisville could outmaneuver the politicking by Georgia Tech or Miami.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - SouthEastAlaska - 04-04-2022 06:16 PM
(04-04-2022 05:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:(04-04-2022 04:26 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: A couple questions...
1) Who will decide to not compete at this level? I might be wrong but IMO there will be a couple universities that will self demote.
2) Are the networks going to allow dead weight to stay aligned with their current conferences? My example is Mississippi State, they really don't bring anything for football or basketball that say a school like Florida State could bring. Does the mouse allow schools like this to stay? MSU isn't the only one either...
3) Why only 3 conferences? I know someone is going to yell at me but I feel like symmetry rules in professional sports, There is equal divisions and conferences in all of the 4 major north American sports so why not in what would become the 5th?
4) What will be the the cue that we can all look to and know unequivocally that this massive transition has begun?
1. If anyone opts out they are just out. I'm not sure unless it is a B1G or SEC member that it would make much difference.
2. Mississippi State won the national championship in baseball last year, and recently enough was a final game away in Women's hoops. They are charter members and no one is mucking around with core SEC members or core B1G members which is just good fortune for some.
3. Why a P5 if we love symmetry? It will eventually be a P2, the third conference is a necessary transitional phase. Some will make it and some eventually will not but nature will decide that.
4. Unless you are blind it has already begun. NIL was one symptom, Texas and Oklahoma leaving is your cue, and Pay for Play will be the starting gun for the race for a place to which some have already been working.
1. Makes Sense
2. Not a shot at Miss St, I guess I don't see how they're more valuable than an Arizona state or a Virginia Tech. Might just be a case of right place right time, I can accept that.
3. If a P2 is the end game, that pretty much answers the question.
4. Not blind, just wondering if there is another proverbial "shoe to drop", that I should be aware of or that is not being mentioned.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - DawgNBama - 04-04-2022 07:19 PM
(04-04-2022 06:16 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:(04-04-2022 05:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:(04-04-2022 04:26 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote: A couple questions...
1) Who will decide to not compete at this level? I might be wrong but IMO there will be a couple universities that will self demote.
2) Are the networks going to allow dead weight to stay aligned with their current conferences? My example is Mississippi State, they really don't bring anything for football or basketball that say a school like Florida State could bring. Does the mouse allow schools like this to stay? MSU isn't the only one either...
3) Why only 3 conferences? I know someone is going to yell at me but I feel like symmetry rules in professional sports, There is equal divisions and conferences in all of the 4 major north American sports so why not in what would become the 5th?
4) What will be the the cue that we can all look to and know unequivocally that this massive transition has begun?
1. If anyone opts out they are just out. I'm not sure unless it is a B1G or SEC member that it would make much difference.
2. Mississippi State won the national championship in baseball last year, and recently enough was a final game away in Women's hoops. They are charter members and no one is mucking around with core SEC members or core B1G members which is just good fortune for some.
3. Why a P5 if we love symmetry? It will eventually be a P2, the third conference is a necessary transitional phase. Some will make it and some eventually will not but nature will decide that.
4. Unless you are blind it has already begun. NIL was one symptom, Texas and Oklahoma leaving is your cue, and Pay for Play will be the starting gun for the race for a place to which some have already been working.
1. Makes Sense
2. Not a shot at Miss St, I guess I don't see how they're more valuable than an Arizona state or a Virginia Tech. Might just be a case of right place right time, I can accept that.
3. If a P2 is the end game, that pretty much answers the question.
4. Not blind, just wondering if there is another proverbial "shoe to drop", that I should be aware of or that is not being mentioned.
I'm not going to say that Mississippi State is less than or greater in value than Arizona State or VaTech. However, to their credit, Mississippi State is a founding member of the SEC, they do bring in some major markets (Jackson, MS is nothing to sneeze at, and MSU has a small portion of the Birmingham, AL market as well.). The national championship in baseball bolsters MSU's case even more!!!
Pay to play is the other shoe to drop, IMO.
As to who won't compete at this level, it's a mystery. I would start with D3 schools who have no desire to move up though.
RE: Why The Next Round Of Realignment Will Not Be Like Any Of The Others: - JRsec - 04-04-2022 10:10 PM
(04-04-2022 05:55 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-04-2022 04:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:(04-04-2022 03:50 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:(04-04-2022 02:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:The third scenario is the SEC-led, and ESPN-financed, Southern brands strategy.(04-04-2022 01:51 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: Second scenario in this same mindset…the Alliance actually forms to transform collegiate athletics.
A) B1G accommodates schools from both coasts to form a 28-member national conference.
East - Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana
Midwest - Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska
Atlantic - Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame
Pacific - Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Colorado
B) SEC prefers to only add four schools that augments its cultural and regional footprint. The 20-team SEC includes Kansas, Virginia Tech, NC State and Clemson.
.
C) Others from the ACC, B12 & PAC join together for a second national conference,
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Wake, WVU and UCF
Central - Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and Houston
West - Arizona, ASU, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State, BYU and San Diego State
What Alliance? The one in support of the NCAA, amateurism, and a botched scheduling alliance? The organizers are networks, the conferences are a brand label, and a collective product, and realignment the arrangement and culling of the product line. There are no ideals involved. It's simply business and pay for play and NIL negated any semblance of idealism which may have remained, and that wasn't very much at all. The NCAA served itself. Amateurism was a myth. And college sports have never been clean.
A) SEC (@ 24 universities) secures the Southern footprint and basketball with UVa, VT, UNC, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Kansas.
B) B1G (@ 24) reacts by cornering Notre Dame plus nine from the PAC (Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Utah and Colorado)
C) The remaining schools with brand-value then combine for a 16-team grouping
East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, NC State, Wake, Georgia Tech and WVU
West - BYU, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State
It's not realistic to expect this group to make more than their current levels.
Unfortunately, all three scenarios break-up the current ACC.
I see this one as the more likely. ESPN will segregate by pay the two collections of properties they wish to retain. And all of the non-alliance scenarios break up the PAC as well. Money is the catalyst that changes things for the lesser paid. It's simply a transformative amount which schools will see as essential to keeping status.
BTW, I think it's a coin flip between Miami (3rd Fla school and a different piece of the Florida market), Georgia Tech (essentially 80% of Atlanta with UGa, Clemson & Auburn) which is AAU, and Louisville (top 15 revenue producer. I agree on the other 7. The wild card is what if ND doesn't opt Big10 and doesn't want a partial with the ACC/B12 merger due to which schools would be in it? What if they opted for the Neo-SoCon for recruiting and markets in a more Catholic region?
With regards to the coin-flip...
ESPN wants Miami (better viewership); UF and FSU support this preference (better rivalries); and football coaches will make their preferences known (better recruits).
Academics will favor Georgia Tech; lots of historical rivals may concur (Georgia, Clemson, Auburn, Alabama & Tennessee could all financially leverage games in the big city); and the ACC blue bloods would support this addition.
Even though revenues are impressive, I don't believe that Louisville could outmaneuver the politicking by Georgia Tech or Miami.
If ESPN Keeps ND.
SEC:
Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Virginia
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
B12/ACC
Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Cincinnati, Iowa State, Louisville, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian
Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, Miami, Tulane
Boise State, Brigham Young, Colorado State, Oregon State, Texas Tech, Washington State
B1G:
Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington.
If ESPN doesn't keep ND. The B1G drops Arizona State and adds N.D. The divisions shift. The SEC adds Virginia Tech in place of ND. The B12/ACC adds Arizona State shifts Wake North and drops Boise.