(12-28-2021 08:57 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  

(12-28-2021 08:42 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-28-2021 07:53 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.

Thanks for this post. My impression as a novice who would love to bet more college football (and college basketball) but probably won't until it's legal in Ohio this offered good perspective. My impression has been Vegas has loved this Bearcat team all year. It didn't overreact to some tightish scores against bad teams midseason (most advanced numbers showed UC really dominated those games and it was kind of flukie they were close) and has had them as between the 5th and 7th best team basically all season. I've though them holding that line under 14 has showed a lot of belief in Cincinnati (said as much yesterday in my game preview) and your explanation makes a ton of sense.

You're right about NFL picks...they are so hard to find value in. I do a 100 person super contest every year, which is basically the extent of my gambling. I'm on this insane 41-17 run against the spread since Week 5 and have not idea how, but I'm hoping to cash in the big money at the end of the year. It feels like every game is so random. Went 5-0 this week, but one was because Detroit's coach stupidly kicked a field goal down 7 with a few minutes left to cover +5.5... you win or lose on nonsense like that.

I consider myself pretty novice too.

41-17 is pretty damn impressive. If you could do that consistently you'd be the best handicapper in the world basically. NFL typically ends up around 50/50 money on both sides of the bet, so basically Vegas makes 5% of the pot on any given NFL game. Good work if you can get it.

There are a bunch of websites that tell you what percentage of the money is on either side. Thespread.com uses pie charts, which helps me for whatever reason. NCAA games aren't nearly as consistent on the 50/50 rule. 75/25 on a playoff game is a crazy spread though, especially if they aren't moving the line.

(12-27-2021 04:49 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  I've been listening to ESPNU on XM over the past week and everyone, literally everyone, I've heard thinks Bama blows us out, like 3-4 TD blowout. We are getting absolutely no respect. I think we can prove them wrong. What do you think D strategy will be: I think we try to limit the big play, drop more into coverage. This will allow the run yards we were so upset about mid-year, but against Bama I think its a win if you make them take time off clock to score and try to hold them to FG's in red-zone. On O, I think we have to pass, pass, pass. Not sure we can run on Bama. At least pass to open up the run. Ridder is going to have to have a strong day for us to be successful.