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CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - Printable Version

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RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - bearcatmark - 12-28-2021 09:15 AM

(12-28-2021 08:57 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  
(12-28-2021 08:42 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(12-28-2021 07:53 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.

Thanks for this post. My impression as a novice who would love to bet more college football (and college basketball) but probably won't until it's legal in Ohio this offered good perspective. My impression has been Vegas has loved this Bearcat team all year. It didn't overreact to some tightish scores against bad teams midseason (most advanced numbers showed UC really dominated those games and it was kind of flukie they were close) and has had them as between the 5th and 7th best team basically all season. I've though them holding that line under 14 has showed a lot of belief in Cincinnati (said as much yesterday in my game preview) and your explanation makes a ton of sense.

You're right about NFL picks...they are so hard to find value in. I do a 100 person super contest every year, which is basically the extent of my gambling. I'm on this insane 41-17 run against the spread since Week 5 and have not idea how, but I'm hoping to cash in the big money at the end of the year. It feels like every game is so random. Went 5-0 this week, but one was because Detroit's coach stupidly kicked a field goal down 7 with a few minutes left to cover +5.5... you win or lose on nonsense like that.

I consider myself pretty novice too.

41-17 is pretty damn impressive. If you could do that consistently you'd be the best handicapper in the world basically. NFL typically ends up around 50/50 money on both sides of the bet, so basically Vegas makes 5% of the pot on any given NFL game. Good work if you can get it.

There are a bunch of websites that tell you what percentage of the money is on either side. Thespread.com uses pie charts, which helps me for whatever reason. NCAA games aren't nearly as consistent on the 50/50 rule. 75/25 on a playoff game is a crazy spread though, especially if they aren't moving the line.

It's almost certainly luck driven as I'm no handicapper and I rarely look at where money is going. I think there have been a few teams the public has been generally off on after deceptive starts to the season. Basically my number one gambling rule is find where Vegas/the public is overreacting to small sample sizes and go against that.

I think people overreacted to Miami's slow start and I saw value in them.

I think people overreacted to the chiefs slow start and there has been value in them (that is probably going to go away).

I've also had Detroit a lot, who isn't good, but whose lines have seemed way lower on them than they should be.

I've hit a ton on those teams since week 5 and treaded water on the rest. This year I've been pretty great on the 1 or 2 games a week (on average) that just jump out at me for having off lines, not gotten killed on the rest.


RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - Z-Fly - 12-28-2021 09:23 AM

Pretty good strategy. Sounds like we should team up. You do NFL, and I'll do NCAA. lol


RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - cincy7718 - 12-28-2021 09:29 AM

I know we’ve all appreciated the uptick in local media coverage but does anybody else happen to watch fox19’s morning show? We’ve got it on in the office and it has been nonstop Bearcats for weeks. They were broadcasting live all morning long from Nippert every 5 minutes the last couple weeks and this week live from Dallas. Their excitement level is great but also kind of hilarious. They give tours of the hotel the teams staying at, showing every Bearcat banner they can find, interviews with every person they see including hotel staff, views from the hotel, moments ago they showed us a live look at a hallway in the hotel where coach Fickell had walked hours earlier lol. Like a combination of red carpet paparazzi and Chinese tourist!


RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - Crewdogz - 12-28-2021 12:17 PM



Not sure where to post this so going to put this here.


RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - Loco Bearcat - 12-28-2021 03:24 PM

(12-27-2021 04:49 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  I've been listening to ESPNU on XM over the past week and everyone, literally everyone, I've heard thinks Bama blows us out, like 3-4 TD blowout. We are getting absolutely no respect. I think we can prove them wrong. What do you think D strategy will be: I think we try to limit the big play, drop more into coverage. This will allow the run yards we were so upset about mid-year, but against Bama I think its a win if you make them take time off clock to score and try to hold them to FG's in red-zone. On O, I think we have to pass, pass, pass. Not sure we can run on Bama. At least pass to open up the run. Ridder is going to have to have a strong day for us to be successful.

11 of the 14 CFP Semifinals have been Double Digit Victories with most of them being blowouts. I can see why so many are predicting a Bama blowout based on history. I was listening to Sallee and Luginbill on XM and they were predicting a blowout however they are biased towards the SEC. Sallee picks games on CBS website and he picked against UC straight up the last 4 games. I hope the Bearcats prove them wrong!


RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - doss2 - 12-28-2021 06:59 PM

AL 2 > AU
UH 4 > AU
Therefore UH 2>AL

UC 35> UH

Therefore UC 37>AL


RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:15 PM

We're gettin' closer...





RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:16 PM

The Mamba mentality...





RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:25 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:27 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:30 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:32 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:34 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:35 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:36 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:38 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:41 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:42 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:43 PM






RE: CFP COTTON BOWL BEARCATS VS ALABAMA- GO BEARCATS, ROLL THE TIDE - UCGrad1992 - 12-28-2021 09:46 PM