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Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - Printable Version

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Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - random asian guy - 10-12-2021 12:11 PM

Just curious.

The “transitory” inflation is here and will stay in my opinion. Does anyone know if the ACC’s ESPN contract is written in a way to mitigatei the impact of a serious inflation?


RE: Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - Hokie Mark - 10-13-2021 12:17 PM

I doubt anyone on this board knows (unless he's an insider, but then he wouldn't want to blow his cover, so he wouldn't tell).


RE: Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - TexanMark - 10-13-2021 01:07 PM

(10-13-2021 12:17 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I doubt anyone on this board knows (unless he's an insider, but then he wouldn't want to blow his cover, so he wouldn't tell).

HokieMark told me it is covered, he heard it from his source, "The Big Guy" in Greensboro 05-stirthepot03-lmfao


RE: Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - Hokie Mark - 10-13-2021 01:23 PM

(10-13-2021 01:07 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 12:17 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I doubt anyone on this board knows (unless he's an insider, but then he wouldn't want to blow his cover, so he wouldn't tell).

HokieMark told me it is covered, he heard it from his source, "The Big Guy" in Greensboro 05-stirthepot03-lmfao

I can neither confirm nor deny knowledge of this subject.

Also, if I told you, I be expected to kill you, and I'm really trying to avoid that.


RE: Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - JRsec - 10-13-2021 03:18 PM

(10-12-2021 12:11 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Just curious.

The “transitory” inflation is here and will stay in my opinion. Does anyone know if the ACC’s ESPN contract is written in a way to mitigatei the impact of a serious inflation?

It depends on which kind of inflation you have in mind.

Contractually escalators (which actually are just the averaged backloading of promised revenue) tend to cover inflation. However with a debt soon to enter the 30 Trillion stratosphere actual inflation for all commodities hitting a double digit level is possible. In that economic environment none of the conferences would escape negative impacts.

Apparently the inflation in advertising and television profits (positively impacted by COVID which oddly makes alarmist network news programming self serving in supporting isolation) may be outpacing the percentage of increase the conferences are getting. In that regard any conference not averaging the same % of growth as their broadcaster is falling behind. However we can't prove what networks are getting until after the fact and our commissioners are supposed to keep up with that and what other conferences make. So this angle is murky at best and always shows numbers in arrears.

Then there is the question "are you keeping up % wise with other conferences?" The answer for the ACC is absolutely not. So why? Your contract's duration is calamitous! Other conferences are renewing over shorter periods of time which keeps them better adjusted to market pricing while the ACC is locked into values a decade and half old. The SEC screwed up the same way with CBS and it cost us millions per school.

So your question has many nuances depending on which iteration of inflation is involved.

The simple paying of players will in itself become hyper inflationary for University Athletic Departments. And what this will cause is a even larger gulf between the well endowed, the efficiently funded, and the subsidized. We are about to witness the birth of 3 distinctly stratified tiers and the labor pains of separating their creation will linger with periodic intensification for the next 15 years (not chosen because of the length of the ACC's contract, but because of the time frame in which Baby Boomers become statistically irrelevant since Boomers have driven inflation in all markets and their passing will be deflationary).


RE: Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - random asian guy - 10-13-2021 10:57 PM

(10-13-2021 03:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 12:11 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Just curious.

The “transitory” inflation is here and will stay in my opinion. Does anyone know if the ACC’s ESPN contract is written in a way to mitigatei the impact of a serious inflation?
.

Then there is the question "are you keeping up % wise with other conferences?" The answer for the ACC is absolutely not. So why? Your contract's duration is calamitous! Other conferences are renewing over shorter periods of time which keeps them better adjusted to market pricing while the ACC is locked into values a decade and half old. The SEC screwed up the same way with CBS and it cost us millions per school.

That’s my concern. The gap would become even wider down the road if the inflation continues and the ACC is stuck in the old contract.


RE: Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - Shannon Panther - 10-14-2021 07:01 AM

Since we split the revenue from the ACC Network, that would provide some insulation. The main contract has 3 "look-ins", but nobody has been able to definitively say what that means. So...maybe?


RE: Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - Hokie Mark - 10-14-2021 08:39 AM

(10-14-2021 07:01 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  Since we split the revenue from the ACC Network, that would provide some insulation. The main contract has 3 "look-ins", but nobody has been able to definitively say what that means. So...maybe?

Quote:What is the "Look-in" clause, and what's it for?
Those two questions are closely related: to understand what it is, you need to understand what it's good for, and vice versa. Here's a statement posted on Warchant.com:

the ACC’s new contract with ESPN calls for three separate “look-in” periods -- times when executives from both entities will be able to sit down and discuss whether the contract terms needs to be renegotiated. The first of those previously unreported “look-ins” will occur in 2021, just two years after the new ACC Network is scheduled to launch on cable and satellite television.

On the surface you might think that if the ACC outperforms certain contract parameters there will be an automatic renegotiation, right? While that sort of language could've been included in the contract, that's not really a "look-in". To put it simply, a look-in means the parties agree to come to the table - with no pressure on either side - to discuss changes which might be mutually beneficial. A good example is what happened at the last look-in: that's when the ACC and ESPN agreed to launch the ACC Network. This view is supported by a statement Commissioner Swofford made to Tigernet in an interview before the ACCN launch decision was made:

...we were more comfortable going with ESPN and having all of our revenues totally guaranteed for the full amount of our contract and it’s term and have the opportunity during that term to consider a potential channel with ESPN as we move forward. That’s why we have a five-year look-in, a 10-year look-in.

As we know, that did happen - ESPN and the ACC together launched the ACC Network. Both sides put something into it, and both sides benefitted. That's what look-ins are about.

SOURCE: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2020/11/rx-for-look-in-monday-night-football.html

Basically, it seems like a "look-in" is essentially an appointment to meet and discuss possible changes to the TV contract - but apparently nothing is automatic; both sides must agree to make a change.

SEE ALSO: https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2021/07/rx-how-can-acc-get-tv-raise.html


RE: Is the ACC media contract inflation-proof? - Statefan - 10-14-2021 01:04 PM

https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2020/06/11/build-back-better-in-the-winter-of-the-5th-kondratieff-wave/

As JR said, "inflation" as we generally talk about in the US is not the problem.

The problem is a demographic/technological shift that plays out over 40-60 periods. The Crash of 2008 was the bottom point of the last cycle. COVID prevents or retards the start of the next cycle freezing us long enough to undergo a massive cultural and demographic shirts.