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How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - usffan - 08-13-2021 09:31 AM

[Image: E8rS8nkVgAwROWx?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

USFFan


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - ken d - 08-13-2021 09:56 AM

(08-13-2021 09:31 AM)usffan Wrote:  [Image: E8rS8nkVgAwROWx?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

USFFan

I'd love to see the Right of First Refusal clause in the existing contract that he refers to. Is that online somewhere?


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Crayton - 08-13-2021 10:11 AM

That’s great. Thanks!

#1 is interesting; they want an annual quarterfinal game (no second-tier stuff) but would prefer NOT splitting that money with the other QFs.

#2 is hard to parse. Sounds like they merely want to ensure they get EITHER a Big Ten or Pac-12 team and are not now pushing for 1 of each when available.

#3 is also a little ambiguous. They want “most favored” status for ALSO hosting semifinals and national championships. Not sure any bowl will host two rounds, unless they anticipate a double-hosting model where 2 teams don’t travel between QFs and SFs.

#4 keeping their historic NYD time slot, as expected.

Sounds like Rose Bowl Plan A is hosting both a NYD quarterfinal AND a later (annual or semi-annual) semifinal that will be sold as a separate TV package.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Claw - 08-13-2021 10:17 AM

(08-13-2021 10:11 AM)Crayton Wrote:  That’s great. Thanks!

#1 is interesting; they want an annual quarterfinal game (no second-tier stuff) but would prefer NOT splitting that money with the other QFs.

#2 is hard to parse. Sounds like they merely want to ensure they get EITHER a Big Ten or Pac-12 team and are not now pushing for 1 of each when available.

#3 is also a little ambiguous. They want “most favored” status for ALSO hosting semifinals and national championships. Not sure any bowl will host two rounds, unless they anticipate a double-hosting model where 2 teams don’t travel between QFs and SFs.

#4 keeping their historic NYD time slot, as expected.

Sounds like Rose Bowl Plan A is hosting both a NYD quarterfinal AND a later (annual or semi-annual) semifinal that will be sold as a separate TV package.

I'd rather see it done where the winners in the semi-finals don't travel for the finals.

Two games on Saturday to determine the finalists. Then a week at the same site to prep for the final game the next weekend.

That would make a hell of a media event.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - RUScarlets - 08-13-2021 10:18 AM

3 and 4 are the biggest stumbling blocks.

3) If they want the SF or Championship game on a rotating basis, it will not be the Rose Bowl game on Jan 1st. It will be a separate game.

4) They will not get a QF on NYD most years given the way the calendar plays out (to avoid NFL games and subsequent weeknight SFs).

So I expect the rest of college football to tell the Rose to piss off and host 3rd and 4th place teams instead on non-QF years. Otherwise the 12-team proposal is getting tabled, but I don't see that happening (it may go to 8 teams, but same calendar conflicts are still likely).


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Crayton - 08-13-2021 10:19 AM

(08-13-2021 09:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'd love to see the Right of First Refusal clause in the existing contract that he refers to. Is that online somewhere?

I think right now the TV contract is between the bowls and ESPN, some talk of an expanded playoff seems to indicate the conferences will negotiate with ESPN/TV directly, forcing the bowls to comply or withdraw.

The Rose Bowl wants to make sure they have a seat at the table and are not put in a position where they choose between having few of their 4 objectives met or withdrawing completely from the playoff. At least until 2026 (when the contract including the “right of first refusal” language expires), the Rose Bowl can’t be put into that type of situation.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - CarlSmithCenter - 08-13-2021 10:25 AM

(08-13-2021 10:17 AM)Claw Wrote:  
(08-13-2021 10:11 AM)Crayton Wrote:  That’s great. Thanks!

#1 is interesting; they want an annual quarterfinal game (no second-tier stuff) but would prefer NOT splitting that money with the other QFs.

#2 is hard to parse. Sounds like they merely want to ensure they get EITHER a Big Ten or Pac-12 team and are not now pushing for 1 of each when available.

#3 is also a little ambiguous. They want “most favored” status for ALSO hosting semifinals and national championships. Not sure any bowl will host two rounds, unless they anticipate a double-hosting model where 2 teams don’t travel between QFs and SFs.

#4 keeping their historic NYD time slot, as expected.

Sounds like Rose Bowl Plan A is hosting both a NYD quarterfinal AND a later (annual or semi-annual) semifinal that will be sold as a separate TV package.

I'd rather see it done where the winners in the semi-finals don't travel for the finals.

Two games on Saturday to determine the finalists. Then a week at the same site to prep for the final game the next weekend.

That would make a hell of a media event.

So a two-week, triple-hosting Final Four? That would be pretty bananas. I’m curious how many cities have both the venue and sufficient practice facilities for four top-tier schools. I would assume LA would be fine if teams could get the Rams, Chargers, UCLA, USC or MLS teams to let them use their facilities for practice.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - BruceMcF - 08-13-2021 10:27 AM

(08-13-2021 10:11 AM)Crayton Wrote:  That’s great. Thanks!

#1 is interesting; they want an annual quarterfinal game (no second-tier stuff) but would prefer NOT splitting that money with the other QFs.

#2 is hard to parse. Sounds like they merely want to ensure they get EITHER a Big Ten or Pac-12 team and are not now pushing for 1 of each when available.

A rotating basis seems pretty clear ... if a Big Ten team is available and a PAC-12 team was the last of the two with a bye into the Rose Bowl, then they want that Big Ten team, and after that if there is a PAC-12 team available and a Big Ten team was the most recent in the Rose Bowl, they want that PAC-12 team, and so on.

Note there is no conflict here with pure seeding, but if the #4 would mean that if they are paired with a second NYD QF into the same Semi-Final, that other NYD game would have to be flexible about conference affiliation.

Also note that a rotation would seem to allow for getting the same conference two or more times in a row if the other is not available, but if so the one that was skipped for two or more years get the Rose Bowl as soon as they do become eligible.

Quote: #3 is also a little ambiguous. They want “most favored” status for ALSO hosting semifinals and national championships. Not sure any bowl will host two rounds, unless they anticipate a double-hosting model where 2 teams don’t travel between QFs and SFs.

Most Favored Nation status in its original context in International Trade means nobody else is given a better deal ... so if any bowl gets to host a QF and SF or NCG in the same year, the Rose Bowl would want the same opportunity. If you can have either a QF or a SF but not both, then MFN for a bowl with a QF every year would be compatible with never getting a SF.

Quote: #4 keeping their historic NYD time slot, as expected.

Sounds like Rose Bowl Plan A is hosting both a NYD quarterfinal AND a later (annual or semi-annual) semifinal that will be sold as a separate TV package.

Selling a separate TV package is integral to leveraging their particular brand advantages.

Note that selling a separate TV package but playing a QF every year pretty much ensures that there are affiliate payments from the Rose Bowl to its partners in some form, whether commitment contracts or participation payments, which flow through the CFP competitions and not just "around" them, as at present.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - RUScarlets - 08-13-2021 10:29 AM

(08-13-2021 10:19 AM)Crayton Wrote:  The Rose Bowl wants to make sure they have a seat at the table and are not put in a position where they choose between having few of their 4 objectives met or withdrawing completely from the playoff. At least until 2026 (when the contract including the “right of first refusal” language expires), the Rose Bowl can’t be put into that type of situation.

There is no way they are hitting on all four points. We already discussed this, but for the newer/returning posters given recent realignment events, this is exactly what we expected from the Rose. You go into the negotiation revealing your strongest hand. And then you concede some. In fact, they already conceded either or on a Big and PAC team, but not both.

They can have the independent TV deal with ESPN or whomever. They can have dibs on SF or Championship games independent of the Rose Bowl game so long as they put out the strongest bid. They may even get additional concessions. But under no circumstances are they hitting on an "annual QF game" while retaining Jan 1st 5pm.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Crayton - 08-13-2021 10:32 AM

(08-13-2021 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  3 and 4 are the biggest stumbling blocks.

3) If they want the SF or Championship game on a rotating basis, it will not be the Rose Bowl game on Jan 1st. It will be a separate game.

4) They will not get a QF on NYD most years given the way the calendar plays out (to avoid NFL games and subsequent weeknight SFs).

So I expect the rest of college football to tell the Rose to piss off and host 3rd and 4th place teams instead on non-QF years. Otherwise the 12-team proposal is getting tabled, but I don't see that happening (it may go to 8 teams but same calendar conflicts are still likely).

Ya. I can’t see #3 playing out where they host both a QF and are in a SF rotation. It indicates to me that they made good money when they had 2 games in 2007 and 2011 and want to tap into that again. Best I can see here is rotating into a SF slot and also hosting an earlier “second-tier” game on NYD that year.

#4 I’m still optimistic on. A NYD quarterfinal works roughly a third of the time, the Rose will host a Semi roughly a third of the time, leaving a third of the time when the SFs would have to be put on a weeknight. I could see it going either way at this point.

If the Rose doesn’t budge the conferences are not going to table expansion. They’ll either accommodate or find another bowl. It may be for a shorter contract period to give the Rose opportunity to loosen their stance, but it won’t shelve the whole project.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - RUScarlets - 08-13-2021 10:36 AM

(08-13-2021 10:32 AM)Crayton Wrote:  If the Rose doesn’t budge the conferences are not going to table expansion. They’ll either accommodate or find another bowl. It may be for a shorter contract period to give the Rose opportunity to loosen their stance, but it won’t shelve the whole project.

The Rose is only as good as their partners. Delaney can try to finagle things to satisfy his former constituents, but it comes down to whether the current PAC12 and B1G want a seat at the table, or whether they want to go their own way. If 2020 told us anything, both conferences will cave for the "greater good". Otherwise they will go at it alone, those 26 teams.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Frank the Tank - 08-13-2021 10:48 AM

(08-13-2021 10:18 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  3 and 4 are the biggest stumbling blocks.

3) If they want the SF or Championship game on a rotating basis, it will not be the Rose Bowl game on Jan 1st. It will be a separate game.

4) They will not get a QF on NYD most years given the way the calendar plays out (to avoid NFL games and subsequent weeknight SFs).

So I expect the rest of college football to tell the Rose to piss off and host 3rd and 4th place teams instead on non-QF years. Otherwise the 12-team proposal is getting tabled, but I don't see that happening (it may go to 8 teams, but same calendar conflicts are still likely).

Agree on #3. That directly conflicts with their desire to be on NYD.

Totally disagree on #4. I think that's the most likely scenario of them all. If there's one thing I'd wager on happening here in whatever playoff system that we end up with, it's that there WILL 100% be multiple quarterfinals on NYD every year (with the only exception when NYD is on a Sunday) come hell or high water... and in that case, it makes total sense that the Rose would be a permanent quarterfinal (especially if only one of the Big Ten or Pac-12 champs are participating, meaning that the Rose is now much more wide open to other leagues).

I know that you've made this argument before, but the TV networks unambiguously do not care if the semifinal games are on weeknights. In fact, that's a feature (not a bug) to them for maximum ratings value. At the same time, it's clear that playoff games on NYD itself have much larger ratings than when they are on a non-NYD Saturday as we have seen through the CFP era, which means that having as many quarterfinals as possible on NYD is also key for maximum ratings value. Everyone should be prepared for this here.

I mean, the committee that created the 12-team playoff proposal made it clear that "taking back New Year's Day" was a goal of the expanded playoff and that committee didn't even include the Big Ten and Pac-12 that would consider "taking back New Year's Day" to be even more important than the rest of them! When what the committee is saying (taking back NYD) also aligns with what would make everyone the most money, *those* are the times when I take the powers that be at their word. (It's only when the powers that be start throwing out lines like "student welfare" as a priority that we know that they're being hypocritical.)


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - quo vadis - 08-13-2021 10:49 AM

The "Rose Bowl" name has tremendous value. It's one of the few things about college football that almost the whole country knows. I bet more people have heard of the Rose Bowl than have heard of the CFP.

The CFP would be foolish to throw that value away. IMO, the Rose Bowl should be accommodated to the greatest extent possible so that it still shines within the context of the expanded playoffs, as it does in the current CFP.

Ditto for the Sugar, Orange and Cotton Bowls.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Wedge - 08-13-2021 10:53 AM

This is one example of why we may not see any change in the CFP until 2026. Every one of the six bowls in the current CFP is going to have its own letter, drawn up by a committee and vetted by a lawyer, that says, "We have a contract, and if you want to change it, here's a list of things we want in exchange for agreeing to change it."


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Attackcoog - 08-13-2021 10:57 AM

Yet another reason for first round to be on campus games.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Frank the Tank - 08-13-2021 11:04 AM

(08-13-2021 10:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The "Rose Bowl" name has tremendous value. It's one of the few things about college football that almost the whole country knows. I bet more people have heard of the Rose Bowl than have heard of the CFP.

The CFP would be foolish to throw that value away. IMO, the Rose Bowl should be accommodated to the greatest extent possible so that it still shines within the context of the expanded playoffs, as it does in the current CFP.

Ditto for the Sugar, Orange and Cotton Bowls.

I agree. Being hardcore college football fans on this forum, we can sometimes not see the forest for the trees: the Rose Bowl has *tremendous* brand value beyond hardcore college football fans and that is what TV networks pay a premium for. You can even see it in ESPN's own coverage of the Rose Bowl: there's definitely a different tone and reverence for it that is only matched by when they cover The Masters.

To be honest, the way that the 12-team playoff is being proposed makes it fairly simple in my mind: the Rose Bowl is a permanent quarterfinal game in its traditional NYD timeslot. With the top 4 conference champs getting byes to the quarterfinals, the Rose will rotate between taking the Big Ten or Pac-12 champ (assuming one of either gets byes, which seems even more likely than ever with the Big 12 effectively getting downgraded). As others have suggested above, if one league goes to the Rose two years in a row (e.g. the Big Ten has a top 4 champ 2 years in a row but the Pac-12 doesn't), then they'll take the other league's champ in the next year if they're a top 4 champ to keep things equal (or close to equal) between the B1G and Pac-12.

The trade-off is that the Rose Bowl gives up being able to host the semifinals, whereas the other CFP bowls can rotate and host those later rounds. To me, that has always been a reasonable tradeoff - I truly do think the Rose cares about maximizing the value of its NYD timeslot (which can be achieved by being a permanent quarterfinal but can't be achieved if they're a consolation game) even if it means that they can't host later rounds. In contrast, my impression is that a venue like the Superdome would prioritize being able to host semifinals and national championship games, so having the Sugar Bowl on NYD itself is less valuable to them.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Crayton - 08-13-2021 11:06 AM

(08-13-2021 10:48 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  If there's one thing I'd wager on happening here in whatever playoff system that we end up with, it's that there WILL 100% be multiple quarterfinals on NYD every year (with the only exception when NYD is on a Sunday) come hell or high water... and in that case, it makes total sense that the Rose would be a permanent quarterfinal (especially if only one of the Big Ten or Pac-12 champs are participating, meaning that the Rose is now much more wide open to other leagues).

I know that you've made this argument before, but the TV networks unambiguously do not care if the semifinal games are on weeknights. In fact, that's a feature (not a bug) to them for maximum ratings value. At the same time, it's clear that playoff games on NYD itself have much larger ratings than when they are on a non-NYD Saturday as we have seen through the CFP era, which means that having as many quarterfinals as possible on NYD is also key for maximum ratings value. Everyone should be prepared for this here.

I mean, the committee that created the 12-team playoff proposal made it clear that "taking back New Year's Day" was a goal of the expanded playoff and that committee didn't even include the Big Ten and Pac-12 that would consider "taking back New Year's Day" to be even more important than the rest of them! When what the committee is saying (taking back NYD) also aligns with what would make everyone the most money, *those* are the times when I take the powers that be at their word. (It's only when the powers that be start throwing out lines like "student welfare" as a priority that we know that they're being hypocritical.)

In concurrance, here is a sample schedule based on actual future dates that features a (mostly) standard bowl rotation and maximizes Saturday Semifinals. Semifinals are either the Saturday of the NFL's Week 18 or on subsequent weekdays, as noted

2027 Rose QF, Saturday Semis
2028 Rose QF, Saturday Semis
2029 Rose SF, Saturday Semis
2030 Rose QF, Weekday Semis
2031 Rose QF, Weekday Semis
2032 Rose SF, Saturday Semis
2033 Rose QF, Saturday Semis
2034 Rose QF, Weekday Semis
2035 Rose SF, Saturday Semis
2036 Rose QF, Weekday Semis
2037 Rose SF, Saturday Semis
2038 Rose QF, Saturday Semis

The Rose would presumably host a second-tier NYD bowl on years they also host a Semi. Only 2037 and 2038 would deviate from a set 3-year bowl-rotation. And, if the PTB want it so, the Quarterfinals (and the Rose Bowl) can also be moved to NYD in '29, '32, '35, and '37.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - RUScarlets - 08-13-2021 11:07 AM

(08-13-2021 10:48 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Agree on #3. That directly conflicts with their desire to be on NYD.

Totally disagree on #4. I think that's the most likely scenario of them all. If there's one thing I'd wager on happening here in whatever playoff system that we end up with, it's that there WILL 100% be multiple quarterfinals on NYD every year (with the only exception when NYD is on a Sunday) come hell or high water... and in that case, it makes total sense that the Rose would be a permanent quarterfinal (especially if only one of the Big Ten or Pac-12 champs are participating, meaning that the Rose is now much more wide open to other leagues).

I know that you've made this argument before, but the TV networks unambiguously do not care if the semifinal games are on weeknights. In fact, that's a feature (not a bug) to them for maximum ratings value. At the same time, it's clear that playoff games on NYD itself have much larger ratings than when they are on a non-NYD Saturday as we have seen through the CFP era, which means that having as many quarterfinals as possible on NYD is also key for maximum ratings value. Everyone should be prepared for this here.

I mean, the committee that created the 12-team playoff proposal made it clear that "taking back New Year's Day" was a goal of the expanded playoff and that committee didn't even include the Big Ten and Pac-12 that would consider "taking back New Year's Day" to be even more important than the rest of them! When what the committee is saying (taking back NYD) also aligns with what would make everyone the most money, *those* are the times when I take the powers that be at their word. (It's only when the powers that be start throwing out lines like "student welfare" as a priority that we know that they're being hypocritical.)

You might be right Frank. I mean, the NCAA tournament could care less about filling the building, especially in earlier rounds. However, when it comes down to the marquee event, it is on a Saturday afternoon in a huge venue. The Final Four is packed. It's not just a TV placeholder to grab ratings. Otherwise the games would be played on a Wednesday/Thursday.

If sports have really moved on to this streaming model, where all anyone cares about is the rectangle on the screen where all the action is taking place, and the aesthetics or fan support is no longer valued, then you will be absolutely right about this.

But it doesn't make any sense to me from either angle. The marquee event here is probably the QFs. You probably want 3/4 games on NYD. But not to make the SFs some made for TV event for mercenary CFB brands to showcase the sport at its highest level. They will not do that on two separate weeknights... we shall see.

Edit: This may all be moot point when the NFL goes to an 18 game season, which is likely to happen after the next CBA. Once that is locked in, the QFs will absolutely be played on the 31st/1st every year.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - Frank the Tank - 08-13-2021 11:22 AM

(08-13-2021 11:07 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(08-13-2021 10:48 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Agree on #3. That directly conflicts with their desire to be on NYD.

Totally disagree on #4. I think that's the most likely scenario of them all. If there's one thing I'd wager on happening here in whatever playoff system that we end up with, it's that there WILL 100% be multiple quarterfinals on NYD every year (with the only exception when NYD is on a Sunday) come hell or high water... and in that case, it makes total sense that the Rose would be a permanent quarterfinal (especially if only one of the Big Ten or Pac-12 champs are participating, meaning that the Rose is now much more wide open to other leagues).

I know that you've made this argument before, but the TV networks unambiguously do not care if the semifinal games are on weeknights. In fact, that's a feature (not a bug) to them for maximum ratings value. At the same time, it's clear that playoff games on NYD itself have much larger ratings than when they are on a non-NYD Saturday as we have seen through the CFP era, which means that having as many quarterfinals as possible on NYD is also key for maximum ratings value. Everyone should be prepared for this here.

I mean, the committee that created the 12-team playoff proposal made it clear that "taking back New Year's Day" was a goal of the expanded playoff and that committee didn't even include the Big Ten and Pac-12 that would consider "taking back New Year's Day" to be even more important than the rest of them! When what the committee is saying (taking back NYD) also aligns with what would make everyone the most money, *those* are the times when I take the powers that be at their word. (It's only when the powers that be start throwing out lines like "student welfare" as a priority that we know that they're being hypocritical.)

You might be right Frank. I mean, the NCAA tournament could care less about filling the building, especially in earlier rounds. However, when it comes down to the marquee event, it is on a Saturday afternoon in a huge venue. The Final Four is packed. It's not just a TV placeholder to grab ratings. Otherwise the games would be played on a Wednesday/Thursday.

If sports have really moved on to this streaming model, where all anyone cares about is the rectangle on the screen where all the action is taking place, and the aesthetics or fan support is no longer valued, then you will be absolutely right about this.

But it doesn't make any sense to me from either angle. The marquee event here is probably the QFs. You probably want 3/4 games on NYD. But not to make the SFs some made for TV event for mercenary CFB brands to showcase the sport at its highest level. They will not do that on two separate weeknights... we shall see.

Yes, it's a little backwards competitively that the quarterfinals may actually be more of a "marquee event" than the semifinals, but that actually makes sense in the context of your concern about traveling fans. The whole reason why college football bowls coalesced on NYD as a marquee date is that it's *optimal* for traveling fans: that's when they're most likely to have vacation time and it's not wedged with family obligations like around Christmas. There is also typically a few weeks for fans to be able to plan to travel for those games, whereas the semifinal and national championship games would require short turnarounds.

So, my belief is that concerns about attendance for the semifinal rounds just don't compare to the "shooting fish in a barrel" ability to maximize attendance by having quarterfinal games on NYD.

What the CFP is probably looking at for the semifinal rounds is that the bulk of attendance will be about corporate money: suites and other high-end tickets that are sold months or even years ahead of time without regard at all about who is actually playing in the game. I'm not saying that it's a good thing, but if you look at it from the perspective that the quarterfinals on NYD are best for maximizing revenue from traveling fans while the later rounds are really about maximizing corporate suite money, then it makes a whole lot more sense that they won't really care about weeknight dates for the semifinals when looking at the system as a whole.


RE: How the Rose Bowl views its place in any future CFP expansion - RUScarlets - 08-13-2021 11:34 AM

There is also the issue of back to back to back traveling weekends (or weeknights in QF/NYD case), so you'd have to sell tickets to the suites on three separate occasions post QF/NYD. Or most fans can pick either or (SF or NCG), but not both under typical circumstances.

It is this reason that ultimately precludes having QFs on NYD, because the sites have to be catered to the traveling fanbases as well as TV. I am still of the belief that the B1G champ is hosting its QF in Indianapolis or Detroit most years. This may seem like a more outlandish prediction that could require a new Bowl/affiliate all together, but this makes more sense than Pasadena followed by potential back to back neutral site venues across the country. I think this is 65% more likely than beginning in Pasadena and traveling through... annually.

The 12 team setup with the scheduling I have in mind devalues NYD, no question. But ultimately, you have to accommodate a tournament, not one day. This was the caveat all along.