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+---- Thread: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? (/thread-926755.html)
Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - ChrisLords - 08-10-2021 01:56 PM
We have heard all three options but is staying at 8 what's best for the Big 12? The Big East was at 8 teams for around 20 years and produced many 0 and 1 loss teams including 2 that played for the national championship when only 2 teams were let into the playoffs.
The L8 can remain at 8 and have 5 OOC games and improve their odds of making the new CFP or they can expand.
If they take the top of the AAC, either 2 or 4 of (Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, etc.) they can keep their average payout per team about the same and allow them to have a CCG or make a division that is all Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas schools.
It would seem to me that the best thing to do is expand by 2 and keep the CCG which is getting about $20ish million dollars and not delude the media rights pay per team. After 2025 if the B12 CCG loses 50% of it's value by losing Texas and Oklahoma, it's still worth it to add 2 teams to have one.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - ken d - 08-10-2021 02:12 PM
No option for adding just one to get an 8 game league schedule?
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - Wahoowa84 - 08-10-2021 02:22 PM
I went for 12.
The conference would be unstable at 8. A few legacy B12 schools are always going to be looking for an upgrade. If they maintain their athletic investment level, it’s just a matter of time before KU or OSU get an offer (TCU and WVU may also get interest).
Without tent-pole programs, 12 members may be needed to ensure interest from multiple media companies. The AAC had to settle for a low ball first offer partly because of their smaller size.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - Jugnaut - 08-10-2021 02:37 PM
If the Big 12 stays at 8, it is dead. They have to expand for survival. Everyone in the Big 12 is looking to get out. Between 1 and 3 teams may be able to move someplace else. The remaining 5-7 would be screwed if that happened. It would be much wiser to take some combo of UC, UCF, USF, Houston, BYU, or Memphis to get to 12. That creates stability. It allows those programs to develop even more and secure the future of the conference. Additionally, it creates more separation from the Big 12 and AAC. If they don't expand, the American may surpass the Big 12 in time and raid the Big 12 or form an entirely new conference with some of the Big 12 members.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - Gamecock - 08-10-2021 02:42 PM
I would say go for 2 immediately and then look to expand again in a couple of years. Perhaps Cincinnati and Houston now and then the Florida schools or someone else later. I think adding 4-6 schools at once would look slightly desperate.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - Big Frog II - 08-10-2021 02:43 PM
The Big 12 must expand, and 12 is the right number. The thing is that most of the best candidates are better than many schools already in the Pac-12, the Big, the SEC, and the ACC, Just due to bad luck or not being at the right place at the right time they have been on the outside looking in.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - 46566 - 08-10-2021 03:19 PM
I say 12 is the right number for now. The additional 4 teams can hopefully limit the hit of losing Texas and Oklahoma a bit on the TV contract. With the addition of what I assume of a payout of Texas and Oklahoma from the conference would limit the problems of lowering the per school payout. With the increase in money the new schools can update the stadium and get a head start in recruiting.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - ChrisLords - 08-10-2021 03:19 PM
(08-10-2021 02:42 PM)Gamecock Wrote: I would say go for 2 immediately and then look to expand again in a couple of years. Perhaps Cincinnati and Houston now and then the Florida schools or someone else later. I think adding 4-6 schools at once would look slightly desperate.
I don't think they should add now. 2025 is the earliest they should add new members since they would have to split up payments from the remaining Oklahoma Texas years if they add before then. But I definitely think they should expand to 10 as opposed to staying at 8.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - Wedge - 08-10-2021 03:24 PM
(08-10-2021 01:56 PM)ChrisLords Wrote: The Big East was at 8 teams for around 20 years
For at least half of that period, FBS was playing an 11 game regular season.
Having an 8 team conference and thus playing only 7 conference games would make scheduling a lot more challenging now, with 12 regular season games and the need to find 5 non-con opponents every year.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - ChrisLords - 08-10-2021 03:25 PM
(08-10-2021 02:12 PM)ken d Wrote: No option for adding just one to get an 8 game league schedule?
No, that would've been a good option though. The Big 12 didn't have a group of Non-football schools holding them to 8 total members like the BE did.
Edit : A 16 and an over 16 option would have been good too.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - Stugray2 - 08-10-2021 03:38 PM
9 schools
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - JSchmack - 08-10-2021 04:08 PM
(08-10-2021 02:12 PM)ken d Wrote: No option for adding just one to get an 8 game league schedule?
Also, 11 would work fine, too.
Especially when you have three candidates that check the boxes: Houston, Cincinnati and UCF
And after those three, you start running into "But what abouts" for the others.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - YNot - 08-10-2021 04:15 PM
(08-10-2021 04:08 PM)JSchmack Wrote:(08-10-2021 02:12 PM)ken d Wrote: No option for adding just one to get an 8 game league schedule?
Also, 11 would work fine, too.
Especially when you have three candidates that check the boxes: Houston, Cincinnati and UCF
And after those three, you start running into "But what abouts" for the others.
But what about their small stadiums and poor attendance numbers?
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - IHAVETRIED - 08-10-2021 04:24 PM
Here's an old-school option:
Add one program to get to 9. Cincy would be the choice.
But there's more: Play a full 8 FB game round robin in conference, no Conference Championship game. Play a full double round robin BB schedule, with no Tournament.
That's the way to do it, but the Money Gods won't allow that.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - Fighting Muskie - 08-10-2021 04:58 PM
I’m a fan of 12 because I think they need to cherry pick the G5/Indy ranks to create a clear separation between the Big 12 and the rest.
Monetarily, they will be behind the P4 but I think competitively they can keep things close to PAC 12 and ACC.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - quo vadis - 08-10-2021 04:59 PM
IMO, they should remain at eight until the settlements with TX and OU are reached. Once those settlements are reached and the money collected, then it probably makes sense to add two schools, say Cincy and BYU, or Cincy and Houston should BYU refuse, to get back to ten, but no more.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - Frank the Tank - 08-10-2021 05:06 PM
I think the Big 12 pretty much needs to get back to 10 at a minimum. My guess is that they'll need that level of membership just to fulfill the TV contract commitments they currently have and argue that they shouldn't be receiving a paycut despite the UT/OU defections. Not expanding or just going up to 9 would likely *guarantee* a reopening of their conference TV contracts. (Granted, I haven't seen the conference TV contracts, so maybe they can be reopened, anyway. I just know that going from 10 to 8 or 9 members is probably an automatic trigger to throw out the old contract in a way that maybe even losing your 2 most valuable schools may not be unless that was specifically covered in that contract.)
If I were running the Big 12, I'd go up to 12 schools by adding Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and UCF. (Even though BYU is the most valuable possible addition, I think there are going to be non-financial issues in both directions about their candidacy.) To be sure, I agree with quo that this can't really be done until the settlements with UT and OU are finalized.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - JSchmack - 08-10-2021 06:18 PM
(08-10-2021 04:15 PM)YNot Wrote: But what about their small stadiums and poor attendance numbers?
People put the cart before the horse all the time with this crap. High attendance and big stadiums don't actually PROVIDE ANYTHING to a conference on their own, or mean anything on their own.
They are merely INDICATORS of some of the things you are looking for in a future member, but are essentially meaningless as individual metrics.
For example, which basketball program is better, the school averaging 13,000 or the school averaging 9300? Answer: Duke is better in men's basketball than Dayton, BYU, Wichita State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Utah State, etc. Duke is probably the most valuable basketball program in the country, and their attendance is like 46th in Division I.
Also, you don't think attendance GOES UP playing TCU instead of Tulane?
You can BUILD a stadium. You can't really get 2 million people to move to your TV market, or for the concept of Time Zones to simply go away.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - JSchmack - 08-10-2021 06:23 PM
Although, if any college was willing to play football at 9 am for TV purposes.... BYU with their lack of alcohol would be the most willing.
RE: Should the Big 12 stay at 8 schools or expand to 10 or 12? - Win5002 - 08-10-2021 06:38 PM
Its too soon to know.
Will the B1G & USC and 5 friends agree to come together? We can argue which 6 but assuming its the 4 California schools, OR & UW. also, ESPN would have incentive to pay the B1G for this kind of expansion due to their own access and trying to move OU & UT right away. The Big 12 expansion then is ASU, AZ, Utah and Colorado. If they can get away from OSU & WSU I'm sure they will. The travel is bad and those two have no real rivals in this league. Houston and BYU would still make sense and help the ratings but would networks pay for them also? What would a league like this get from tv revenue each year? I'm not sure but it would be worth watching. This is real palatable to the remaining 8 schools if they can get close to ACC type money and maybe messy lawsuits or exit fees can be avoided all together if the new contract is new enough.
If the B1G & USC don't move forward maybe ESPN places the remaining 8 in other leagues it has a hand in to avoid exit fees and/or messy legal fees. The B1G has no reason to help this and I don't think they will take even 1 or 2 teams to make this happen. Although the SEC who received the homerun in the UT & OU could already have agreed to take 2 more teams even if not decided. I'm sure those two additions no matter who they were would take a reduced rate for a while. If ESPN told the ACC to take 2 teams and they give them a small bump in pay, the ACC doesn't have a lot of leverage to say no. I also don't think the PAC has a lot of leverage to say no to 4-6 teams if they were given a bump by ESPN and maybe an agreement is worked out for ESPN to finally run the PAC network.
ESPN probably doesn't have any more invested than they would have in a new B12 deal plus continuation of the LHN and they still secured all the rights to OU & UT.
ESPN can even give the appearance of looking good whether they deserve it or not if they can somehow find a way to get the ACC & PAC not desperately behind the SEC & B1G in revenue. I'm not sure how they get that to work. Would the PAC & ACC playing on Tues./Wed./Thurs./Fri. nights help for windows of live content? Playing early start times EST and late night start times in the West? Maybe it can help bridge a portion of the gap. If they can do this it still helps CFB seem a little more like a national sport and they might find less people tuning in to the T1 & T2 regular season games as well as CFP and bowl games. I'm not sure alienated fans will have much interest in those game if they make the division too wide.
If none of the above happens then you can start to decide is this a 2, 4 team or 6 team expansion and who those teams are.